VIX: Flat or rising base *always* breaks higher

Since August, VIX has held a flat base around 19.50 which it touched today 2/10/2021. This means a correction in the S&P 500 is likely coming soon - almost guaranteed - and in fact, this is the *quickest* weekly retouched of the base on record, so we may still be in the upward wave in the VIX that began end of January. The rapid continuation of that wave *may* suggest an end to the August-February channel, suggesting much lower prices for the S&P 500 than the September 2020 low, but we don't know this for sure because we don't have another peak-to-trough move within such a short period of time since the VIX's inception, so it's hard to say what it means for sure.

Either way, a sell in the S&P 500 is coming within the next week; we just don't know if it's a September 2020/June 2020/January 2021 type of sell, or a bigger one.

Trade attivo:

Indeed. We broke higher, and an S&P 500 sell did come the following week leading to a 100 point drop in ES as of today. However, this move has been very anemic and difficult to trade unless you were relying on theta for a large portion of your profits. Which, if we are now entering that kind of market, I will certainly do more of.

Commento:

Apparently we had not yet established our base - which makes sense.