News background and trading ideas for 28/12/2018

28 dic 2018

After a “breathing space” and optimistic day, the financial markets, seems, have decided again to came back into the festive depressive mood. As a result, demand for the safe-haven assets, both in the commodity markets (gold), as well as in financial (Japanese yen), has grown. Stock markets going underwater took the cryptocurrencies with its. The dollar, after it confident growth before, showed a decline. So, markets behavior changes for 180 C every day. It is possible to trade in such conditions if it’s a possibility to abstract the “white noise” and keep seeing the picture as a whole. Actually, precisely in this purpose, we publish our daily reviews for you.

In fundamental background terms, there is nothing to look at because of the holidays. It was a little of macroeconomic statistics this week, moreover today we will not count on something extraordinary either. The next week will be much more interesting instead, so we recommend to save your breath and fuse.

From the most interesting current news, it’s worth noting the 6-th day of the government shutdown in the USA. Note, that the time was chosen excellently, since hundreds of thousands of non-working civil servants outside the holidays is a very grave problem, and so far, what is happening can be considered a slight fright. But in any case, it does not play into the hands of the dollar and the US stock market. Actually, the dynamics in the markets confirms this.

In the oil market, meanwhile, the reposition of the analytics takes place now - this is a massive revision of forecasts for oil in 2019. On average, they are lowered by $7–8 per barrel, what is, of course, is a negative signal for oil. Although analysts are known for their belated attempts to adapt to the changed reality, and such severe revisions of forecasts only indicate how low-quality they were initially. Another news from the oil market that is worth noting - a sharp increase in oil reserves in the US (according to API data, they grew by almost 7 million barrels), which again does not set up a positive mood.

Regarding our trading ideas and recommendations, they are unchanged since there were no changes in the fundamental background. We are looking for points for dollar intraday and mid-term sales, buying intraday gold and Japanese yen, as well as buying the British pound in the mid-term, and selling oil and the Russian ruble.