Silver : Time to go long ?

26 apr 2019

Silver is trading near the support of Golden Ratio (61.8%). Silver had faced hurdle at $ 14.60-15 range when it posted bottom at $ 13.89. It has now become support zone.White metal has bounced from 61.8% retracement of rally from $13.89 to $16.21 which is $14.78. Resistance on higher side is at $ 15.12 and $15.40. ROC and Stochastic are showing positive divergence on daily chart.Historically, Gold Silver ratio has averaged around 66 level which is now trading at 85. If we assume that mean reversion will take place in near term, then at $1400 price of Gold (analyst consensus), silver should trade at $ 21 level. CFTC Non Commercial net position has dropped from high of 58300 long (5-Marc-19) to 5900 long in last reading of 20th April.Silver had posted $ 13.70 bottom in Dec 2015 and then we saw rally towards $21 in just 6 months of time frame.

Our take : Buy Silver on daily close above $ 15.12 with stop loss of $14.70 (daily closing) for target $ 16.21- $17.20.