Ready for a new trading week with CPI data in focus

12 ago

XAUUSD closed slightly down last week, but a recovery over the past two trading days has helped gold prices narrow their losses this week.
Investors will receive US CPI and retail sales data next week, which is expected to cause major fluctuations in the gold market. In addition, developments in the Middle East are also the focus of investors' attention.

Yesterday's US unemployment claims data eased fears of a recession and boosted gold prices. Additionally, Federal Reserve commentary this week also supports the view that an interest rate cut may be imminent.

After a volatile week, traders' expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates in an unusually aggressive way have also weakened. Globally, risk appetite also gradually recovered as the week progressed, tempered by demand for gold, considered a top safe-haven asset.

However, Fed policymakers are increasingly confident that inflation has cooled enough to allow interest rate cuts. They will decide the size and timing of interest rate cuts based on economic data rather than stock market turmoil.

A big storm is coming, the US CPI will be announced this week as the market focus
This week's economic calendar will release US inflation data for July. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to increase 0.2% month-on-month in July, while core CPI , excluding fluctuating food and energy prices, will also increase 0.2% month-on-month. On an annual basis, the headline CPI inflation rate is expected to moderate to 2.9% from 3% in June.
If CPI rises higher than expected compared to last month, investors can reassess the possibility of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September and help the Dollar strengthen and of course this will be the immediate reaction. immediately because it is expected to decrease.
On the other hand, if the data meets or misses market expectations, it could put pressure on the US Dollar, opening the door for another bullish wave for gold.

On Thursday, the US Census Bureau will release retail sales data for July. US retail sales are expected to increase 0.3% month-over-month in July after flat change in June.
Significant growth in retail sales could ease fears of a US recession and weigh on gold by supporting the dollar, while negative data would have the opposite effect.

CME's "Fed Watch Tool" shows that the market expects the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September to be 49%.

It is also important to note that in addition to economic data being the focus of attention, readers, investors, and traders also need to pay attention to geopolitical developments. In the current context, focus should be on the situation in the Middle East as signs of escalation continuously appear in the market. Information will be updated with readers through short comments or daily publications.

Analysis of technical prospects for XAUUSD
After receiving support from the key technical area for the uptrend that readers noticed throughout the publication over the past week, the confluence area of ​​the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement, the lower edge of the price channel and the The $2,378 technical has pushed gold to achieve its near-term upside target at $2,437.

Temporarily, gold's upside momentum is limited at the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, price point of $2,437, but it has also achieved full bullish conditions. With the closest support currently noticed by the EMA21 and the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level, as long as gold remains above the EMA21 the near-term bullish outlook prevails.

On the other hand, once gold breaks $2,437 it will continue towards an all-time high with no significant technical resistance beyond this level ahead.

All technical and fundamental conditions are supportive of price increases, so cases expecting a correction should be opened with very short-term positions.

This week's market is expected to have more complex fluctuations from macro data, and the uptrend of gold prices will be noticed by the following price points.
Support: 2,408 – 2,400USD
Resistance: 2,437 – 2,484USD

🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2443 - 2441

⚰️SL: 2447

⬆️TP1: 2436
⬆️TP2: 2431

🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2404 - 2406

⚰️SL: 2400

⬆️TP1: 2411
⬆️TP2: 2416

12 ago

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Plan SELL +25pips🔽🔽🔽

12 ago

Nota

GOLD STEADY AS US INFLATION DATA AWAITED

Gold prices rose on Monday as investors await US inflation data due on Wednesday to determine the size of a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September.

12 ago

Nota

XAU/USD struggled to maintain the upward momentum of the past two days and fluctuated in a narrow range during the Asian session on Monday. The overall positive sentiment in the equity market is seen as the main factor hindering the safe-haven precious metal. The risk of escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could temper optimism in the market. Furthermore, it is expected that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will take a loosening stance to keep the USD on the defensive and may support precious metals - non-yielding assets.

13 ago

Nota

🟢Gold rises over 1%

Gold prices rose by more than 1% on Monday to hit the highest since Aug. 2, driven by safe-haven inflows as traders awaited U.S. inflation data this week that could shed more light on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path.

13 ago

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14 ago

Nota

⭕️Iranian source "Yesna": "Responding to Israel is not linked to the Gaza agreement".

14 ago

Nota

The headline CPI slowed on an annual basis from July to an increase of just 2.9%, below expectations of 3%, and below the previous reading of 3%.

15 ago

Nota

Investors strongly sold precious metals after the July consumer price index (CPI) report from the US Department of Commerce. What investors are interested in right now is at what level the Fed will start reducing interest rates, 0.25 percentage points or 0.5 percentage points...

15 ago

Nota

A FED MEMBER MAKES IMPORTANT COMMENTS ON INTEREST RATES
St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musallem said the time is near for the U.S. central bank to cut interest rates.

16 ago

Nota

Gold prices pared gains on Thursday (August 15), as the dollar and bond yields rose after stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data could affect the scope of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

16 ago

Nota

🔻The dollar held near a two-week high against the yen on Friday after posting its biggest daily gain against major currencies in four weeks, as strong U.S. economic data eased fears the economy was entering a recession.

18 ago

Nota

Ending last week (August 12 - August 17), world gold price closed at 2,507 USD/ounce, an increase of 2.8% after one week. Previously, there was a time when precious metals reached 2,508.9 USD/ounce, the highest ever. This is a new peak, surpassing the old record of 2,483 USD/ounce in the July 19 session.