GOLD reached target gains
Aggiornato
Although the dollar and US Treasury yields rose as US retail sales rose more than expected in March, tensions in the Middle East boosted safe-haven demand, and at the same time, the market Expecting that the Federal Reserve will be able to delay interest rate cuts this year, gold prices did not extend last week's decline but continued to increase.
Iran launched drones and explosive missiles late on Saturday, the first attack by another country on Israel in more than three decades, raising fears of a wider regional conflict than.
Israeli officials support retaliation, but the United States makes clear it will not engage in any offensive action against Iran, limiting the immediate market reaction and limiting further gains of gold.
The market now expects fewer than two 25 basis point interest rate cuts by the end of this year, compared with three previously expected.
With inflation remaining high, market participants have now pushed back expectations for the Federal Reserve's first rate cut from June to September. This remains supportive of a rise. US Treasury yields, with the US 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.61%.
Higher bond yields weigh on gold prices because they increase the opportunity cost of holding gold investments. However, in the current context, this is not a steady pressure and should only be considered a factor limiting the strong increase in gold prices.
According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 96% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 4%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged until June is 77.8%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 21.4%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 0 ,8%.
The Middle East prepares for an Israeli "retaliation" attack on Iran after an Israeli war cabinet meeting. The Israeli Air Force said it had completed "preparations" and that an attack on Iran was "imminent". (according to Zerohedge)
US officials say they believe Israel will conduct operations against Iran today. (according to Wall Street Journal)
Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Hezi Halevi said during an inspection of Nevatim Air Base on Monday that Iranian missile and drone attacks on Israel “will be responded to.”
The Times' front page headline was changed to "War Cabinet decides on serious attack on Iran, hopes not to trigger regional war". Previously it was “Times of Israel”.
Analysis of technical prospects for
XAUUSD
On the daily chart, after the downward correction, gold has achieved all of the target gains noted by readers in the weekly publication and the structural support for the bullish outlook remains unchanged.
Temporarily, the nearest target level is noted at the original price level of 2,400 USD. Once this raw price level is broken, gold will tend to continue to increase to the all-time peak previously established.
The original price level of 2,400 USD is also the closest resistance in the short term, and as long as gold continues to maintain above the 2,382 USD price point of the 1% Fibonacci extension, reaching 2,400 USD is inevitable.
During the day, the upward trend of gold prices will continue to be maintained with notable technical levels as follows.
Resistance: 2400 - 2428USD
Support: 2358 - 2345 - 2330USD
🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2409 - 2407
⚰️SL: 2413
⬆️TP1: 2402
⬆️TP2: 2397
🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2357 - 2359
⚰️SL: 2353
⬆️TP1: 2364
⬆️TP2: 2369
Iran launched drones and explosive missiles late on Saturday, the first attack by another country on Israel in more than three decades, raising fears of a wider regional conflict than.
Israeli officials support retaliation, but the United States makes clear it will not engage in any offensive action against Iran, limiting the immediate market reaction and limiting further gains of gold.
The market now expects fewer than two 25 basis point interest rate cuts by the end of this year, compared with three previously expected.
With inflation remaining high, market participants have now pushed back expectations for the Federal Reserve's first rate cut from June to September. This remains supportive of a rise. US Treasury yields, with the US 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.61%.
Higher bond yields weigh on gold prices because they increase the opportunity cost of holding gold investments. However, in the current context, this is not a steady pressure and should only be considered a factor limiting the strong increase in gold prices.
According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 96% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 4%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged until June is 77.8%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 21.4%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 0 ,8%.
The Middle East prepares for an Israeli "retaliation" attack on Iran after an Israeli war cabinet meeting. The Israeli Air Force said it had completed "preparations" and that an attack on Iran was "imminent". (according to Zerohedge)
US officials say they believe Israel will conduct operations against Iran today. (according to Wall Street Journal)
Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Hezi Halevi said during an inspection of Nevatim Air Base on Monday that Iranian missile and drone attacks on Israel “will be responded to.”
The Times' front page headline was changed to "War Cabinet decides on serious attack on Iran, hopes not to trigger regional war". Previously it was “Times of Israel”.
Analysis of technical prospects for
XAUUSD On the daily chart, after the downward correction, gold has achieved all of the target gains noted by readers in the weekly publication and the structural support for the bullish outlook remains unchanged.
Temporarily, the nearest target level is noted at the original price level of 2,400 USD. Once this raw price level is broken, gold will tend to continue to increase to the all-time peak previously established.
The original price level of 2,400 USD is also the closest resistance in the short term, and as long as gold continues to maintain above the 2,382 USD price point of the 1% Fibonacci extension, reaching 2,400 USD is inevitable.
During the day, the upward trend of gold prices will continue to be maintained with notable technical levels as follows.
Resistance: 2400 - 2428USD
Support: 2358 - 2345 - 2330USD
🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2409 - 2407
⚰️SL: 2413
⬆️TP1: 2402
⬆️TP2: 2397
🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2357 - 2359
⚰️SL: 2353
⬆️TP1: 2364
⬆️TP2: 2369
Nota
🟢Gold prices rose to approach the record high level recorded last week- The rise was supported by concerns about escalating geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel
- Gold in spot transactions rose 0.2% to $2,387.11 per ounce, and US gold futures contracts increased 0.9% to $2,403.90.
Nota
Fed data showed output at factories, mines and utilities rose 0.4%, matching the previous month's revised gain. Mining and energy extraction decreased, while public service output increased.Nota
Nota
✴️ [Breaking News] - ECB's Schnabel : It may be prudent to continue to treat the Baseline Forecast as just an input for policy decisions or consider other changes to the framework, including in communications information, even as inflation continues to decline.Nota
This official still expects inflation to fall further but wants more data to strengthen confidence that inflation will return to the Fed's 2% target. "A strong economy and labor market are enabling the Fed to be patient with policy," she said.Nota
According to Labor Department data, initial claims stood at 212,000 last week, below economists' forecast of 215,000. Applications for continued benefits stood at 1.81 million in the week ending April 6.Nota
⭕️Gold prices rose on Friday due to risk aversion in financial markets following media reports of bombings in Iran, which raised fears of a broader regional conflict and increased the attractiveness of gold as a safe haven.Nota
The USD price rose sharply after US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell mentioned that the US economy does not yet exhibit signs of inflation reaching the central bank's 2% target. He acknowledged that it might take longer than anticipated to lower interest rates. The Fed Chairman's decision on interest rates, coupled with the search for a safe investment amidst mounting geopolitical tensions following Iran's attack on Israel, further bolstered the strength of the USD.
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