MQP 12R FINAL EXIT STRATEGY AND SETUP FOR ROUND 2
HEADER - Exit is going to be WED-THUR, 3/9-3/10. Re-entry will be 3/11-3/15.
SUMMARY - There's a lot going on in this post. So it will take me several days to give u all the details of what this all means. At time of posting, I'll just stick to exit strategy and discuss the rest later. See links for previous posts 12O, 12P, and 12Q.
DETAILS EXIT STRATEGY
1) as stated in previous post 12Q, I am expecting a pop sunday open followedby 50-60 pt retrace that WILL BE BOUGHT IMMEDIATELY
2) what has changed is, the following 48 hours of price action will be zig zag from 1970 to 2010, roughly speaking.
3) THE LAST RUN FOR THIS TRADE WILL HAPPEN WED AND THURS
4) HIGH WILL BE 2050-2070,
5) DO NOT HANG AROUND HERE, IT COULD DROP 140 IN 30-36 HOURS.
6) entries for round 2 will be late Thurs/Fri 3/10-3/11 if we are following BLUE ROUTE (ALL SIGNS SAYS WE ARE)
7) IF RED ROUTE (a slower correction to the bold diagonal), then buy on Tuesday 3/15, FOMC IS 3/16
DETAILS ON THE REST
1) 3 posts ago, after the first circle drop, I stated still had 100% conviction we are going higher
2) I said that bc, odds for 2070 in March is really high and
3) odds of a another high 2110-2140 in late March is also really high
4) BUT HOW YOU GET THERE MATTERS A GREAT DEAL IN WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THAT
5) the first circle STRONGLY IMPLIES failure AT THE SECOND CIRLCE
6) this means that price will follow BLUE ROUTE AND FAIL AT THE BOLD DIAGONAL
7) so? what does mean GOING FORWARD?
8) MORE SIDEWAYS CONSOLIDATION 1920-2070 UNTIL END OF JULY
9) will add more if I have time
SUMMARY - There's a lot going on in this post. So it will take me several days to give u all the details of what this all means. At time of posting, I'll just stick to exit strategy and discuss the rest later. See links for previous posts 12O, 12P, and 12Q.
DETAILS EXIT STRATEGY
1) as stated in previous post 12Q, I am expecting a pop sunday open followedby 50-60 pt retrace that WILL BE BOUGHT IMMEDIATELY
2) what has changed is, the following 48 hours of price action will be zig zag from 1970 to 2010, roughly speaking.
3) THE LAST RUN FOR THIS TRADE WILL HAPPEN WED AND THURS
4) HIGH WILL BE 2050-2070,
5) DO NOT HANG AROUND HERE, IT COULD DROP 140 IN 30-36 HOURS.
6) entries for round 2 will be late Thurs/Fri 3/10-3/11 if we are following BLUE ROUTE (ALL SIGNS SAYS WE ARE)
7) IF RED ROUTE (a slower correction to the bold diagonal), then buy on Tuesday 3/15, FOMC IS 3/16
DETAILS ON THE REST
1) 3 posts ago, after the first circle drop, I stated still had 100% conviction we are going higher
2) I said that bc, odds for 2070 in March is really high and
3) odds of a another high 2110-2140 in late March is also really high
4) BUT HOW YOU GET THERE MATTERS A GREAT DEAL IN WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THAT
5) the first circle STRONGLY IMPLIES failure AT THE SECOND CIRLCE
6) this means that price will follow BLUE ROUTE AND FAIL AT THE BOLD DIAGONAL
7) so? what does mean GOING FORWARD?
8) MORE SIDEWAYS CONSOLIDATION 1920-2070 UNTIL END OF JULY
9) will add more if I have time
Nota
MY PLANS right now1) exit WED or THURS
2) tactical short anything above 2065
3) cover shorts by end of 311
Nota
COME TO THINK OF IT 1) even though I've been long since late January...
2) this entire run has been (late FOR ALL THE REGRESSION CURVES)
3) meaning first, the highs are a week or two late vs average of all trends
4) and the IMMEDIATE RETRACE of each high we hit
5) there's very little "rolling over action"
6) it's spike down, and step up
7) I know that how prices usually behave but when they do it WITH CONSISTENCY...
8) like repeating fractal, THAT MEANS WEAKNESS AFTER MARCH
Nota
ODDS OF BREAKING 2075 next week1) not happening, any where close to all time highs and it will get hammered
2) only question is how fasr
3) again, THE MANNER OF THE RETRACE AFTER THE HIGH IS ABSOLUTE CRITICAL
FOR LONG TERM BULL THESIS
Nota
ODDS OF INCOMING HIGH BEFORE 50-60 PT SWING1) looks like 1992-2007 more likely than 2015
2) after review, looks like during u.s. session
3) will resolve back up w/in 16 hours or less of the low (looks like noon Monday from here)
4) take this w/ a jar of Kosher salt, it just means expect move up and retrace and back up
5) all of this should be done by Tuesday NY open
Nota
UPDATE 8.17 PM ET SUN NIGHT1) futures hit 1997.xx while spot $3 lower
2) there is VERY LITTLE room left for this rally tonight
3) 2007-2015 ceiling remains in effect for 40-45 hours out
4) next move is 50 60 pt swing down and back up
5) nothing else to say until TUES night
Nota
UPDATE 11 PM ET SUNDAY NIGH1) I'm not sure we SWING DOWN AND UP NEXT
2) current regressions imply 2047 at U.S. open'
3) if so, that's my EXIT
4) I have to stress that markets are in a rough spot right now
5) oil just popped 22% at open, that's not a normal market
6) the dollar moved from 96 to 99
7) and gold doesn't seem like it wants to stop right now
8) my position is: If I can get a 2040+ exit Monday morning, SEE YA!
Nota
9) remember I said Jan 28 that the perfect entry is w/in 2 days? 10) what if I told you gold moves to 2000+ while the dollar goes to 99 and oil goes to 139?
11) gold seems cheap if u ask me, but that's crazy talk
Nota
UPDATE 12:14 AM ET MONDAY1) I don't think it's going go up or down soon
2) the intermediate regressions are twisting in disorder, so they really are not suppose to move up now
3) but I don't see weakness until a couple of hours into u.s session/NY open.
4) in any case, the general path is roughly the same if it goes up a bit more
5) its still 50-60 swing after that before the last run finishing WED/THURS
Nota
UPDATE 8:39 MONDAY PRE-MARKET1) pretty much sticking to our plans
2) floor is 1953, so I see a 50pt drop
3) not that it can't go under that, just not likely to based on updated regressions
4) should start to move back up QUICKLY around noon ET
5) next step is run to what looks like 2065 now
Nota
6) 8:53 AM ET, 1961 may have been the floor (1971 now)Nota
7) 9:49 AM ET, 1985, pretty confident bottom is in8) looks like final run has LEGIT shot at 2075
9) my money is on late Wed or early Thursday
10) THAT DOESN'T MEAN IM WAITING FOR THE HIGH
11) any thing above 2050 is good enough for me
12) from here through this top no more posts/update from me
13) I'm totally focused on execution
Nota
UPDATE 1 PM ET MON, going nowhere right now at 19841) in the chart way above, we have been to A & B, now at C and going to D
2) can't say for sure if it follows red or blue after that
3) until then plan remains the same EXIT WED OR THURS AND SHORT THE HIGH
4) that's all for today
Nota
HEADS UP 4:41 PM AFTERMARKET1) odds of 2035 at least 50% by midnight tonight
2) that's GOOD ENOUGH FOR ME
3) rally not over, but there's not much left past 2035 to risk a lot for
Nota
11:13 PM STILL MONDAY1) that move to 1980 is really ugly looking on in the very short term
2) this means prices expected to go nowhere for another 18-19 hours
3) Tuesday night is VERY IMPORTANT RIGHT NOW (due to weakness last 4 hours)
4) If we don't break out convincingly IT WILL BE TIME TO TAKE MONEY OFF THE TABLE
5) and wait it out
6) as of right now, I'm still bullish
7) but it won't take much to change that
Nota
3:31 AM ET1) run to 2020 fixed that problem
2) so here comes the last and FINAL rally
3) first, I'm not sure the pull back from 2020 is completed
4) I wouldn't be surprised if we see 1990 again during U.S. session
5) the curves are saying the final rally will occur after market tomorrow
6) BUT TOP BEFORE MID NIGHT TOMORROW
7) that's all, good luck with your exit
Nota
8:27 AM ET 20121) kinda safe to say that pb is done now too
2) now to 2065-2080
3) regressions say top is 16 hours from now
4) 2065-2080
5) outside shot (10%) it breaks 2100, in which case...
6) it WILL GET HAMMERED LIKE W/IN 2 HOURS
7) my strategy is the SAME, EXIT TODAY
8) TACTICAL SHORT THIS HIGH UNTIL FRIDAY IF EARLY, TUES 3/15 IF LATE
9) NO UPDATES FROM ME FOR AT LEAST 2 OR DAYS
10) GOOD LUCK
WITH ALL
Nota
TYPO... 2 or 3 DAYSNota
9:51 AM ET JUST HIT 20401) high maybe before new york close
2) watch carefully and exit today
3) don't get cute
Nota
UPDATE: 10:41 AM ET 1) I EXITED 2059
2) Now waiting for tactical short
Nota
3) celing is 2071-72- but it may not hit4) carry-away momentum celing is 2088 (but I don't believe in it)
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Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.