Big Week for Markets: U.S. CPI Tomorrow – What It Means for Gold

This week is packed with news, but the main focus is the U.S. CPI report dropping tomorrow.

🗓 Key Event: U.S. CPI Report
📍 July 15, 2025 | 12:30 p.m. UTC

The CPI report measures inflation and heavily influences the Fed’s rate decisions. Last month’s CPI came in at 2.4% vs. 2.5% expected, following 2.3% vs. 2.4% in April. While it seems inflation is rising, the bigger picture shows stable annual inflation in the 2.3%–3.0% range, keeping things under control—likely the reason Trump is pressuring Powell to cut rates.

Market expects June CPI to be 2.7%.

🤔 Possible Scenarios:

1️⃣ CPI > 2.7%: Bullish for DXY 📈. The stronger the print, the bigger the spike, but I see this scenario as less probable.
2️⃣ CPI < 2.7%: Bearish for DXY 📉. We may see a USD dump, though likely shallow since CPI could still be higher than previous months.

✨ What About Gold?

I don’t expect a major reaction in gold:

✅ Higher CPI? Gold often benefits as an inflation hedge.
✅ Lower CPI? Also supportive for gold as it weighs on the USD.

🔍 Technical Outlook:
Gold has been trading within a triangle since April 22, forming lower highs and higher lows. We may currently be in Wave D (Elliott Wave), aiming toward the triangle’s upper boundary slightly above $3,400 resistance. After that, Wave E may develop – but that’s a story for another post.