A Big breakout is coming on our way but which way up or down?
At the moment of publishing this report gold is trading at $1503 per ounce and silver is trading at $18 per ounce. Gold prices have surged more than $20 since our last Wednesday analysis however silver gains were almost negligible during this period. In this research report, we have tried to gather our counter views in order to make our report more informative and factual which ultimately helps us to make informed decisions.
Our view: Our bias towards the precious metals complex remains to be bearish as we are not witnessing any near term catalyst which will support the prices in a significant manner. On a technical front we have already informed you that our strong bearish bias will be intact within the precious metal sector until unless The yellow metal breaks above $1525 however it seems it won’t manifest any time soon, we understand the role of technical analysis however we are also aware it’s a small part of the bigger puzzle when you are dealing within the sector. we believe that macro research is crucial if one’s trying to forecast the gold and silver prices. we believe that gold is unlikely to make any significant moves unless there is a big geopolitical spark. Gold could move sideways around $1500 for few days however we are anticipating a major breakdown once the boring sideways action gets over. even though we have seen surge in gold prices following Fed hawkish rate cut and all-time highs in the U.S stock indices, we believe going forward it’ll be difficult for gold to make a significant surge in prices from the level it’s currently trading at due to less dovish tone of the fed(lesser likelihood of rate cuts), Macro research aspect, Strong U.S. dollar, and U.S. stock indices and positive development on the U.S-China trade war.
Counterview: Many analyst believe that gold is preparing for the significant move higher as it’s trading well above $1500 despite the the Federal Reserve’s signal to pause its rate cuts and stronger U.S economic health.we also believe that the last week prices action which we have witnessed in the precious metal sector was surprising as gold not only manages to trade above $1500 but surged in prices despite the fed hawkish cut. Strong employment data 128,000 new jobs added in October couldn’t harm gold prices as well. Many analysts are quite optimistic regarding the gold prices with TD Securities seeing the gold end the year at $1,525 and other anticipating the broader range of $1,500-$1,550.
Our view: Our bias towards the precious metals complex remains to be bearish as we are not witnessing any near term catalyst which will support the prices in a significant manner. On a technical front we have already informed you that our strong bearish bias will be intact within the precious metal sector until unless The yellow metal breaks above $1525 however it seems it won’t manifest any time soon, we understand the role of technical analysis however we are also aware it’s a small part of the bigger puzzle when you are dealing within the sector. we believe that macro research is crucial if one’s trying to forecast the gold and silver prices. we believe that gold is unlikely to make any significant moves unless there is a big geopolitical spark. Gold could move sideways around $1500 for few days however we are anticipating a major breakdown once the boring sideways action gets over. even though we have seen surge in gold prices following Fed hawkish rate cut and all-time highs in the U.S stock indices, we believe going forward it’ll be difficult for gold to make a significant surge in prices from the level it’s currently trading at due to less dovish tone of the fed(lesser likelihood of rate cuts), Macro research aspect, Strong U.S. dollar, and U.S. stock indices and positive development on the U.S-China trade war.
Counterview: Many analyst believe that gold is preparing for the significant move higher as it’s trading well above $1500 despite the the Federal Reserve’s signal to pause its rate cuts and stronger U.S economic health.we also believe that the last week prices action which we have witnessed in the precious metal sector was surprising as gold not only manages to trade above $1500 but surged in prices despite the fed hawkish cut. Strong employment data 128,000 new jobs added in October couldn’t harm gold prices as well. Many analysts are quite optimistic regarding the gold prices with TD Securities seeing the gold end the year at $1,525 and other anticipating the broader range of $1,500-$1,550.
