S&P, Gold & BTC Correlation - when safe haven?
For the last 6 weeks or so, there's only been one thing to trade - The Market, as everything moved up and down together, gapping violently based on news.
These daily charts show how the stock market (SPX/S&P 500) has correlated with the historical safe haven asset of gold (XAUUSD) and the promised new safe haven of Bitcoin (BTCUSDT). The red indicator at the bottom is the standard TradingView Correlation Coefficient (CC).
In the first chart, BTC - in blue - largely moved with the S&P, showing a high CC throughout the crash. Notably, it had a more extreme flash crash (crypto loves extremes), and also recovered off the bottom more quickly. These differences aside, BTC remains highly correlated with the stock market for now.
In the second chart, gold - in yellow - at first continued its rise as stocks fell, but then had a sharp selloff of its own. It's been reported that this was probably due to traders being forced to sell positions in order to avoid margin calls as equities got smashed, and that sounds reasonable to me. Since that started, gold has been very highly correlated with stocks, falling and recovering together.
In the third chart, perhaps somewhat redundantly, we can see that since March 9 or so, gold and BTC have become and stayed well correlated.
Where next?
Notably, gold has now exceeded its pre-crash high, while stocks are still down 16%. Gold is also trading well above all of its daily moving averages, while the S&P is still underneath the 89 and 200. This is at least some technical reason to think that their trajectories might be different soon.
My bias, based on fundamentals, is short equities and long precious metals and crypto. But I can't trade that until their correlation drops – until the further drop in the stock market that I think is coming panics gold investors not into selling, but buying. So I'll be watching this chart carefully.
+Obligatory "I'm not an expert, this isn't advice". Stay safe out there!
These daily charts show how the stock market (SPX/S&P 500) has correlated with the historical safe haven asset of gold (XAUUSD) and the promised new safe haven of Bitcoin (BTCUSDT). The red indicator at the bottom is the standard TradingView Correlation Coefficient (CC).
In the first chart, BTC - in blue - largely moved with the S&P, showing a high CC throughout the crash. Notably, it had a more extreme flash crash (crypto loves extremes), and also recovered off the bottom more quickly. These differences aside, BTC remains highly correlated with the stock market for now.
In the second chart, gold - in yellow - at first continued its rise as stocks fell, but then had a sharp selloff of its own. It's been reported that this was probably due to traders being forced to sell positions in order to avoid margin calls as equities got smashed, and that sounds reasonable to me. Since that started, gold has been very highly correlated with stocks, falling and recovering together.
In the third chart, perhaps somewhat redundantly, we can see that since March 9 or so, gold and BTC have become and stayed well correlated.
Where next?
Notably, gold has now exceeded its pre-crash high, while stocks are still down 16%. Gold is also trading well above all of its daily moving averages, while the S&P is still underneath the 89 and 200. This is at least some technical reason to think that their trajectories might be different soon.
My bias, based on fundamentals, is short equities and long precious metals and crypto. But I can't trade that until their correlation drops – until the further drop in the stock market that I think is coming panics gold investors not into selling, but buying. So I'll be watching this chart carefully.
+Obligatory "I'm not an expert, this isn't advice". Stay safe out there!
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