GOLD Analysis | Intraday Chart Forecast
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Gold prices rose to a record early on Friday as the dollar and yields fell on firming expectations the Federal Reserve is ready to begin lowering interest rates as U.S. inflation eases.
Gold for December delivery was last seen up US$27.40 to US$2,519.80 per ounce, topping the record high of US$2,507.80 set on Tuesday. The rise follows on economic data this week showing inflation slowed last month while retail sales surged, easing recession worries while strengthening expectations the Federal Reserve can begin cutting interest rates, which are at a 23-year high, when its policy committee meets next month.
"Gold's data dependency remains paramount, as jobs, inflation, and economic data all have the potential to clarify the Fed's path and future monetary policy," Christopher Louney, a commodities strategist at RBC Capital Markets, said in a note.
The dollar moved lower, with the ICE dollar index last seen down 0.27 points to 102.71. Treasury yields also fell, with the U.S. two-year note last seen paying 4.056%, down 4.5 basis points, while the yield on the 10-year note was down 2.4 basis points to 3.891%.
From technical point of view, Trend is bullish and if we look at 1H chart, Gold is forming impulsive structure 12345. If this analysis is correct, in the short term GOLD should trigger a corrective structure (Wave 4) before another bullish leg.
Thank you for watching.
Gold prices rose to a record early on Friday as the dollar and yields fell on firming expectations the Federal Reserve is ready to begin lowering interest rates as U.S. inflation eases.
Gold for December delivery was last seen up US$27.40 to US$2,519.80 per ounce, topping the record high of US$2,507.80 set on Tuesday. The rise follows on economic data this week showing inflation slowed last month while retail sales surged, easing recession worries while strengthening expectations the Federal Reserve can begin cutting interest rates, which are at a 23-year high, when its policy committee meets next month.
"Gold's data dependency remains paramount, as jobs, inflation, and economic data all have the potential to clarify the Fed's path and future monetary policy," Christopher Louney, a commodities strategist at RBC Capital Markets, said in a note.
The dollar moved lower, with the ICE dollar index last seen down 0.27 points to 102.71. Treasury yields also fell, with the U.S. two-year note last seen paying 4.056%, down 4.5 basis points, while the yield on the 10-year note was down 2.4 basis points to 3.891%.
From technical point of view, Trend is bullish and if we look at 1H chart, Gold is forming impulsive structure 12345. If this analysis is correct, in the short term GOLD should trigger a corrective structure (Wave 4) before another bullish leg.
Thank you for watching.
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Support Area:
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If wave 4 has been completed with ABC on 15' chart, it means we are already in wave 5. If this does not happen, Gold will form a complex corrective structure, then manage positions:
Trade chiuso: obiettivo raggiunto
Target 1 hit:
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Gold prices soared to an all-time high on Friday as the dollar weakened on growing expectations for an interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve in September, and as tensions in the Middle East bolstered demand for bullion. Spot gold was up 1.7% to $2,498.72 per ounce by 02:27 p.m. EDT (1827 GMT), after hitting a record high of $2,500.99 earlier. U.S. gold futures settled 1.8% higher at $2,537.80. Bullion rose 2.8% this week.
The dollar index fell 0.4% and posted a fourth week of losses, making gold more appealing for buyers overseas.
"Gold surged to a fresh all-time high and breached $2,500 after two weeks of extremely choppy trading as bulls finally impose their will," Tai Wong, a New York-based independent metals trader, said. "Attention will now shift to focus on Jackson Hole and Fed Chair Powell's speech a week from today to provide a more detailed outlook on the shape of the upcoming rate cuts."
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to deliver remarks on the economic outlook next Friday, the first full day of the Kansas City Fed's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The July releases of the producer price index and consumer price index this week indicated inflation was subsiding, which could keep the Fed on track for a 25-basis-point rate cut next month.
"Ongoing geopolitical strife and potential escalation that Iran could get involved, and the war in Ukraine, those factors all contribute to safe-haven demand for gold," said Everett Millman, chief market analyst with Gainesville Coins. Bullion is considered a hedge against geopolitical and economic uncertainties and tends to thrive in a low-interest-rate environment.
Nota
Gold traded around $2,500 per ounce on Monday, hovering at an all-time high, driven by strong demand for safe-haven assets while markets evaluated the Federal Reserve's policy outlook. Reports indicated that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in the Middle East to broker ceasefire negotiations with Gaza. However, ongoing strikes from Israel and conflicting statements from Hamas and Israel have dampened the chances of a breakthrough. Additionally, concerns about escalation between Ukraine and Russia were noted as Ukrainian forces advanced into Russian territory.
Meanwhile, positive US economic data last week led markets to favor a 25bps rate cut by the Fed in September, rather than a 50bps cut. Still, with inflation approaching the Fed's target, markets continued to expect a total of 100bps cuts over the remaining three meetings this year.
Investors now await Fed Chair Powell’s speech and the latest FOMC minutes later this week for further insights on monetary policy.
Trade chiuso: obiettivo raggiunto
Target 2 hit ✔
🔴 Gold rose to over $2,520 per ounce on Tuesday, a new record high, as bets of less-restrictive monetary policy by major central banks magnified the support for safe-haven assets amid lingering geopolitical concerns. Signs of continued disinflation in the US, lastly evidenced by headline and core price gauges slowing more than expected in July, raised expectations that the Fed is due to start lowering rates and attend to a slowing labor market. Markets currently favor 100bps in rate cuts by the US central bank in their three remaining decisions this year. The ECB and the BoE also lowered rates and are due to more cuts.
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