Weekly Review – Week 10, Prepping for Week 11

### **Weekly Review – Week 10, Prepping for Week 11**

#### **Market Context: Higher Time Frames Still Bullish, But Short-Term Consolidation**

- **Quarterly:** Q1 2025 remains in expansion mode, continuing the pattern of higher highs and higher lows over the last six quarters. Price is currently trading above Q4 2024, which acted as a stall candle—reinforcing that the **higher time frames remain in a bullish breakout phase**.
- **Monthly:** February followed through with **bullish momentum**, closing above January’s high. However, the long wick to the upside signals **rejection of higher prices**.
- **Monthly imbalance at 2780**, aligning with **October 2024's STH-HH at 2790**—a key **Point of Interest (POI)** for long setups if price retraces.

#### **Weekly Chart: Defined Range & Potential for Deeper Pullback**

- **Week 10 printed an inside bar**, following Week 9’s engulfing move—**creating both a swing high and swing low**.
- **Weekly Equilibrium at 2745** – Optimal long positions may form below this level, providing a **higher probability setup in discount pricing**.
- Given the defined range, this supports a case for **short-term shorts**, with **long setups likely to emerge at lower levels**.

#### **Daily Chart: Expansion, Consolidation, Breakdown – Is 2830 Weak?**

- **Recent Structure:** Price expanded, consolidated, and then broke down, forming a **swing low at 2830**.
- This swing low **failed to push higher and take out 2955**, which would have confirmed continued bullish structure.
- **Daily consolidation zone at 2935-2940** was the origin of the last **bearish expansion**. If price revisits this area, it becomes a **prime shorting opportunity**, targeting a break of 2830.
- A break below **2830 confirms short-term bearish control**, increasing the probability of a move toward **weekly range equilibrium at 2750**.

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### **Trading Plan for the Week Ahead**

🔹 **Short Bias Above Recent Swing High at 2930**
- Looking for shorts within the **Daily Bearish POI (2935-2940)**.
- If price rejects and moves down, **targets = 2830**, with potential for an extended move into **weekly equilibrium at 2750**.

🔹 **Longs Not Off the Table – But Caution Needed**
- **Higher time frames remain bullish**, so we are not married to short positions.
- If price shows **strong buying interest we will re-evaluate.

🔹 **Key Events to Watch in Week 11**
- **CPI on Wednesday** and **PPI on Thursday** – These could be **major catalysts for volatility**.
- **Post-NFP reaction was muted**, so we anticipate **stronger price moves following economic data this week**.

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### **Execution Mindset: Trade the Plan, Stay in Control**

🚨 **No Bias Marriages – We Execute, Then Evaluate**
- Every position is **planned, executed, and then reviewed**.
- **If a setup fails, we adjust. If a setup succeeds, we analyze why.**

🎯 **Focus for March:**
- **Refining the scaling-in model**—balancing profit-taking while managing drawdowns.
- **Strengthening market structure analysis** across multiple time frames.
- **Sticking to daily swing trades** at key reversal points (springs & upthrusts on lower time frames).

🔹 **Let’s see what price prints. We trade what we see, not what we expect.**

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