EURUSD Timing Composite (5-Component)

Overview
An advanced multi-component oscillator designed specifically for intraday EURUSD trading. This indicator synthesizes four correlated FX pairs plus US yield dynamics to isolate genuine EUR strength and USD weakness from market noise, providing high-probability timing signals through multi-layer cross-validation.

Components & Methodology
The indicator employs z-score normalization (default 20-period lookback) to harmonize five distinct market signals into a unified composite reading:
Primary USD Strength Signals (50%):

GBPUSD (25%) - GBP/USD serves as a USD strength proxy with high correlation to EURUSD
-USDCHF (25%) - Inverted USD/CHF provides independent USD strength confirmation

Yield Differential Signal (25%):

-US02Y (25%) - Inverted 2-Year Treasury yield captures Fed policy expectations and rate differentials

EUR-Specific Strength Signals (25%):

EURGBP (12.5%) - EUR/GBP isolates EUR performance against its closest rival
EURCHF (12.5%) - EUR/CHF confirms broad EUR strength beyond USD dynamics


Key Features
✅ Triple-Layer Validation - Combines USD FX signals, yield differentials, and EUR crosses
✅ Rate Differential Integration - Captures Fed policy repricing and carry trade dynamics
✅ Cross-Pair Confirmation - Filters false signals from GBP/CHF-specific events
✅ Alignment Indicator - Visual dots highlight when 4+ components agree (high-confidence setups)
✅ Mean-Reversion Zones - Overbought/oversold thresholds at ±1.5 standard deviations
✅ Clean Visualization - Candle-based display (no wicks) for rapid interpretation

How to Use
Basic Signals:

Green candles = Bullish EURUSD pressure (EUR strengthening / USD weakening / yields falling)
Red candles = Bearish EURUSD pressure (EUR weakening / USD strengthening / yields rising)
Above +1.5 = Overbought zone → look for mean-reversion shorts
Below -1.5 = Oversold zone → look for mean-reversion longs

High-Confidence Setups (Alignment Dots):

Lime dot at top = 4+ components bullish → strong long bias
Magenta dot at bottom = 4+ components bearish → strong short bias
No dots = Mixed signals → reduce position size or wait for clarity

Divergence Trading:

EURUSD makes new high but composite doesn't confirm → potential reversal down
EURUSD makes new low but composite doesn't confirm → potential reversal up


Best Practices
Timeframes: 5-minute to 15-minute charts for intraday trading
Session Focus: London session and London/New York overlap (peak EUR liquidity)
Pair With: Key technical levels, pivot points, or session open ranges
Risk Management: Scale position size based on alignment strength (larger when dots appear)
Component Interpretation:

GBPUSD + USDCHF + US02Y all aligned = USD-driven move (highest confidence)
EURGBP + EURCHF both strong = EUR-specific strength (independent of USD)
All five aligned = Maximum confidence (broad market agreement)
FX pairs vs yields diverging = Mixed regime (be cautious)

Weight Adjustments:

Fed data days (CPI, NFP, FOMC): Increase US02Y weight to 35%, reduce FX to 20% each
Brexit/BOE events: Reduce GBPUSD to 15%, increase EURCHF to 20%
ECB policy days: Increase EUR cross weights (EURGBP/EURCHF) to 17.5% each
SNB intervention risk: Monitor USDCHF and EURCHF for anomalies


Technical Details
Calculation Method: Z-score normalization with configurable lookback period
Default Weights: GBPUSD 25% | -USDCHF 25% | -US02Y 25% | EURGBP 12.5% | EURCHF 12.5%
Extreme Threshold: ±1.5 standard deviations (adjustable)
Alignment Trigger: 4 out of 5 components in agreement
Customizable Parameters:

Z-score lookback period (default: 20)
Individual component weights
Extreme threshold levels
Alignment indicator toggle


Advantages Over Simple Indicators
Unlike single-pair or DXY-based indicators, this composite:

Integrates yield dynamics - Captures Fed repricing that drives USD independently of FX flows
Isolates EUR strength - EUR crosses separate EUR-specific moves from USD dynamics
Triple confirmation - FX pairs + yields + EUR crosses must align for high-confidence signals
Filters rate/FX divergence - When yields and FX disagree, indicator shows mixed signals
Regime adaptability - Adjustable weights for different market conditions


Understanding Component Relationships
Normal Correlation Environment:

GBPUSD ↑ + USDCHF ↓ + US02Y ↓ → USD weakness → EURUSD ↑
EURGBP ↑ + EURCHF ↑ → EUR strength → EURUSD ↑

When Components Diverge (Critical Signals):

FX says USD weak, but US02Y rising → Yields attracting capital despite FX → Weak EURUSD signal
GBPUSD ↑ but EURGBP ↓ → GBP-specific strength, not EUR → Neutral for EURUSD
Only yields moving, FX flat → Pure rate story, wait for FX confirmation
Only EUR crosses rising → EUR strength independent of USD → Strong EUR-specific signal

Regime Examples:

Fed hawkish surprise: US02Y spikes (bearish), FX confirms → Strong EURUSD short
ECB policy shift: EURGBP/EURCHF move, but USD signals mixed → EUR-specific trade
Risk-off: All USD signals bullish, EUR crosses bearish → Maximum EURUSD short confidence


Suggested Complementary Analysis

ECB vs Fed policy divergence and forward guidance
US-Germany 2-year yield differential
European equity market performance (Euro Stoxx 50)
EUR-denominated commodity prices
PMI differentials (Eurozone vs US)
Political risk events (elections, Brexit, fiscal policy)
Real yield differentials (when TIPS data available)


Limitations & Considerations

Fed/ECB simultaneous announcements can create temporary whipsaws
Brexit volatility may distort GBPUSD signals (reduce weight during UK events)
SNB interventions spike USDCHF/EURCHF (monitor for anomalies)
Yield curve inversions may affect US02Y signal interpretation
Works best in normal conditions (less reliable during market dislocations)
Requires understanding of intermarket dynamics for optimal use


Disclaimer
This indicator is a technical analysis tool and does not guarantee profitable trades. Always employ proper risk management, monitor fundamental developments, and backtest strategies thoroughly before live implementation. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Credits
Engineered for intraday FX traders seeking multi-factor confirmation for EURUSD timing decisions. Built on intermarket analysis principles combining correlated currency pairs, yield differentials, and statistical normalization for robust signal generation.
Version: 1.0
Pine Script Version: 6
Category: Oscillators, Multi-Timeframe Analysis, Interest Rate Analysis
Use Case: Intraday mean-reversion and momentum timing for EURUSD

Questions, improvement ideas, or want to share your results? Comment below!