ETH - 12HR Double Kernel Regression Strategy ETH Double Kernel Regression Strategy
This ETH -focused, 12-hour Double Kernel Regression strategy is designed to cut through market noise and guide you toward data-backed, higher-probability trades. By utilizing two kernel regression models—Fast and Slow—this approach gauges momentum shifts and confirms trends. The strategy intelligently switches between these kernels based on identifying FOMO patterns, allowing it to adapt to changing market conditions. This ensures you enter trades when the trend is genuinely gaining strength, rather than blindly "buying the dip."
Key Concepts
Fine-Tuned Since Inception:
The strategy’s logic and filters—including price thresholds, trend moving averages (MAs), and kernel confirmations—are meticulously fine-tuned to perform consistently across all market conditions. This proactive planning enables confident entries during bullish recoveries, eliminating the need to second-guess every signal.
“Buy the Rise, Sell the Dip” Logic:
Unlike the traditional mantra, this strategy waits for slow kernel confirmation before entering uptrends. When market conditions shift, it identifies optimal entry points and holds steady if the trade isn’t losing money. This reduces guesswork and helps prevent buying into false rallies.
Sell the Hype:
The crypto market is often cluttered with noise—meme coins, last-minute hype, and social media influencers. The Double Kernel Regression approach distinguishes genuine trends from hype-driven movements. When the price exceeds simple moving averages (SMAs), the fast kernel generates a sell signal. This carefully crafted strategy helps you navigate the chaotic landscape, especially during hype-driven rallies, and ensures you sell at the top.
Try It Out
Import this strategy into your TradingView platform and observe how it reacts in real-time as market conditions change. Evaluate the signals, adjust parameters if necessary, and experience firsthand how combining sound trading philosophy with a data-driven backbone can transform your trading journey.
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Bollinger Breakout Strategy with Direction Control [4H crypto]Bollinger Breakout Strategy with Direction Control - User Guide
This strategy leverages Bollinger Bands, RSI, and directional filters to identify potential breakout trading opportunities. It is designed for traders looking to capitalize on significant price movements while maintaining control over trade direction (long, short, or both). Here’s how to use this strategy effectively:
How the Strategy Works
Indicators Used:
Bollinger Bands:
A volatility-based indicator with an upper and lower band around a simple moving average (SMA). The bands expand or contract based on market volatility.
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
Measures momentum to determine overbought or oversold conditions. In this strategy, RSI is used to confirm breakout strength.
Trade Direction Control:
You can select whether to trade:
Long only: Buy positions.
Short only: Sell positions.
Both: Trade in both directions depending on conditions.
Breakout Conditions:
Long Trade:
The price closes above the upper Bollinger Band.
RSI is above the midline (50), confirming upward momentum.
The "Trade Direction" setting allows either "Long" or "Both."
Short Trade:
The price closes below the lower Bollinger Band.
RSI is below the midline (50), confirming downward momentum.
The "Trade Direction" setting allows either "Short" or "Both."
Risk Management:
Stop-Loss:
Long trades: Set at 2% below the entry price.
Short trades: Set at 2% above the entry price.
Take-Profit:
Calculated using a Risk/Reward Ratio (default is 2:1).
Adjust this in the strategy settings.
Inputs and Customization
Key Parameters:
Bollinger Bands Length: Default is 20. Adjust based on the desired sensitivity.
Multiplier: Default is 2.0. Higher values widen the bands; lower values narrow them.
RSI Length: Default is 14, which is standard for RSI.
Risk/Reward Ratio: Default is 2.0. Increase for more aggressive profit targets, decrease for conservative exits.
Trade Direction:
Options: "Long," "Short," or "Both."
Example: Set to "Long" in a bullish market to focus only on buy trades.
How to Use This Strategy
Adding the Strategy:
Paste the script into TradingView’s Pine Editor and add it to your chart.
Setting Parameters:
Adjust the Bollinger Band settings, RSI, and Risk/Reward Ratio to fit the asset and timeframe you're trading.
Analyzing Signals:
Green line (Upper Band): Signals breakout potential for long trades.
Red line (Lower Band): Signals breakout potential for short trades.
Blue line (Basis): Central Bollinger Band (SMA), helpful for understanding price trends.
Testing the Strategy:
Use the Strategy Tester in TradingView to backtest performance on your chosen asset and timeframe.
Optimizing for Assets:
Forex pairs, cryptocurrencies (like BTC), or stocks with high volatility are ideal for this strategy.
Works best on higher timeframes like 4H or Daily.
Best Practices
Combine with Volume: Confirm breakouts with increased volume for higher reliability.
Avoid Sideways Markets: Use additional trend filters (like ADX) to avoid trades in low-volatility conditions.
Optimize Parameters: Regularly adjust the Bollinger Bands multiplier and RSI settings to match the asset's behavior.
By utilizing this strategy, you can effectively trade breakouts while maintaining flexibility in trade direction. Adjust the parameters to match your trading style and market conditions for optimal results!
Stablecoins: Market Cap Delta [Kendrick_Chan]Stablecoins Market Cap Growth Indicator is a tool designed to track and analyze the changes in the market capitalization of stablecoins over time. This indicator provides valuable insights into the stability and growth trends of stablecoins, which are digital currencies pegged to a stable asset like fiat currency or commodities.
Key Features:
1. Market Cap Tracking: Monitors the total market capitalization of various stablecoins, such as USDT, USDC, and BUSD, providing a comprehensive view of the stablecoin market.
2. Growth Analysis: Analyzes the growth rate of stablecoins, highlighting periods of significant increase or decrease in market cap.
3. Dominance Metrics: Shows the dominance of individual stablecoins within the overall market, helping to identify leading stablecoins and their market share.
4. Historical Data: Provides historical data on market cap changes, allowing users to identify long-term trends and patterns.
5. Comparative Insights: Compares the market cap growth of stablecoins against other cryptocurrencies and traditional financial assets.
Benefits:
Investment Decisions: Helps investors make informed decisions by understanding the stability and growth potential of different stablecoins.
Market Sentiment: Offers insights into market sentiment and investor confidence in stablecoins.
Risk Management: Assists in risk management by identifying stablecoins with consistent growth and stability.
By leveraging this indicator, users can gain a clearer perspective on the performance and reliability of stablecoins in the ever-evolving digital currency landscape.
Korean Exchange Relative Volume BarchartKorean Exchange Relative Volume Barchart
The Korean Exchange Relative Volume Barchart indicator compares the trading volume of a cryptocurrency on any symbol with the combined volumes of major Korean exchanges, Upbit and Bithumb. This tool helps traders understand regional trading activities, offering insights into market sentiment influenced by Korean markets.
For example 0.5 would indicate that the Korean exchanges are doing 50% of the volume of the selected symbol.
Features:
Exchange Selection: Include or exclude Upbit and Bithumb in the comparison.
Automatic Symbol Mapping: Automatically maps the current chart's symbol to equivalent symbols on Upbit and Bithumb.
Stacked Bar Chart Visualization: Plots a stacked bar chart showing the relative volume contributions of Binance, Upbit, and Bithumb.
Usage:
Add the Indicator: Apply it to a cryptocurrency chart on TradingView.
Configure Settings: Toggle inclusion of Upbit and Bithumb in the settings.
Interpret the Chart: The stacked bar chart displays the proportion of trading volumes from each exchange.
Notes:
Symbol Compatibility: Ensure the cryptocurrency is listed on the Korean exchanges for accurate comparison.
Data Accuracy: Volumes are compared in the same base currency (e.g., BTC), so no exchange rate conversion is necessary.
Enhance your trading analysis by understanding the influence of Korean exchanges on cryptocurrency volumes with the Korean Exchange Volume Comparison indicator.
Uptrick: Logarithmic Crypto Bands
Description :
Introduction
The `Uptrick: Logarithmic Crypto Bands` indicator introduces an innovative approach to technical analysis tailored specifically for the cryptocurrency markets. By leveraging logarithmic transformations combined with dynamic exponential bands, this indicator offers a sophisticated method for identifying critical support and resistance levels, assessing market trends, and evaluating volatility. Its unique approach stands out from traditional indicators by addressing the specific challenges of high volatility and erratic price movements inherent in cryptocurrency trading.
Originality and Usefulness
** 1. Unique Logarithmic Transformation: **
- Innovation : Unlike traditional indicators that often use raw price data, the Uptrick: Logarithmic Crypto Bands applies a logarithmic transformation to the closing prices: logPrice = math.log(close). This approach is original because it reduces the impact of extreme price fluctuations, providing a smoother and more stable price series. This transformation addresses a common issue in cryptocurrency markets where large price swings can obscure true market trends.
- Advantage : The logarithmic transformation compresses the price range, which allows traders to better identify long-term trends and reduce the noise caused by outlier price movements. This results in a more reliable basis for analysis and enhances the ability to detect meaningful market patterns.
**2. Dynamic Exponential Bands :**
- Innovation : The indicator employs exponential calculations to derive dynamic support and resistance levels based on a central base line : baseLine * math.pow(multiplier, n). Unlike static bands that remain fixed regardless of market conditions, these bands adjust dynamically according to market volatility.
- Advantage : The dynamic nature of the bands provides a more responsive and adaptive tool for traders. As market volatility changes, the bands widen or narrow accordingly, offering a more accurate reflection of potential support and resistance levels. This adaptability improves the tool's effectiveness in varying market conditions compared to static or traditional bands.
Detailed Description and Substantiation
**1. Logarithmic Price Calculation :**
- Code : ` logPrice = math.log(close)
- Description : This calculation converts the closing price into its logarithmic value. By compressing the price range, it minimizes the distortion caused by extreme price movements, which can be particularly pronounced in the volatile cryptocurrency markets.
- Purpose : To provide a stabilized price series that facilitates more accurate trend analysis and reduces the influence of erratic price fluctuations.
**2. Moving Averages of Logarithmic Prices :**
- ** Long-Term Moving Average :**
- Code : maLongLogPrice = ta.sma(logPrice, longLength)
longLength = 2000
- ** Description : A simple moving average of the logarithmic price over a long period. This average helps filter out short-term noise and provides insight into the long-term market trend.
- Purpose : To offer a perspective on the overall market direction, making it easier to identify enduring trends and distinguish them from short-term price movements.
- Short-Term Moving Average :
- Code : maShortLogPrice = ta.sma(logPrice, shortLength) shortLength = 900
- Description : A simple moving average of the logarithmic price over a shorter period. This component captures more immediate price trends and potential reversal points.
- Purpose : To detect short-term trends and changes in market direction, allowing traders to make timely trading decisions based on recent price action.
**3. Base Line Calculation :**
- Code : baseLine = math.exp(maShortLogPrice)
- Description : Converts the short-term moving average of the logarithmic price back to the original price scale. This base line serves as the central reference point for calculating the surrounding bands.
- Purpose : To establish a benchmark level from which the exponential bands are calculated, providing a central reference for assessing potential support and resistance levels.
**4. Band Calculation and Plotting :**
- ** Code :**
- Band 1: plot(baseLine * math.pow(multiplier, 1), color=color.new(color.yellow, 20), linewidth=1, title="Band 1")
- Band 2: plot(baseLine * math.pow(multiplier, 2), color=color.new(color.yellow, 20), linewidth=1, title="Band 2")
- Band 3: plot(baseLine * math.pow(multiplier, 3), color=color.new(color.yellow, 20), linewidth=1, title="Band 3")
- Band 4: plot(baseLine * math.pow(multiplier, 4), color=color.new(color.yellow, 20), linewidth=1, title="Band 4")
- Band 5: plot(baseLine * math.pow(multiplier, 5), color=color.new(color.yellow, 10), linewidth=1, title="Band 5")
- Band 6: plot(baseLine * math.pow(multiplier, 6), color=color.new(color.yellow, 0), linewidth=1, title="Band 6")
- * Multiplier : Set at 1.3, adjusts the spacing between bands to accommodate varying levels of market volatility.
- Description : Bands are plotted at exponential intervals from the base line. Each band represents a potential support or resistance level, with the spacing between them increasing exponentially. The color opacity of each band indicates its level of significance, with closer bands being more relevant for immediate trading decisions.
** How to Use the Indicator :**
**1. Identifying Support and Resistance Levels :**
- Support Levels : The lower bands, closer to the base line, can act as potential support levels. When the price approaches these bands from above, they may indicate areas where the price could stabilize or reverse direction.
- Resistance Levels : The upper bands, further from the base line, serve as resistance levels. When the price nears these bands from below, they can act as barriers to price movement, potentially leading to reversals or stalls.
**2. Confirming Trends :**
- Uptrend Confirmation : When the price consistently remains above the base line and moves towards higher bands, it signals a strong bullish trend. This confirmation helps traders capitalize on upward price movements.
- Downtrend Confirmation : When the price stays below the base line and approaches lower bands, it indicates a bearish trend. This confirmation assists traders in acting on downward price movements.
3. Analyzing Volatility :
- Wide Bands : Wider spacing between bands reflects higher market volatility. This indicates a more turbulent trading environment, where price movements are less predictable. Traders may need to adjust their strategies to handle increased volatility.
- Narrow Bands : Narrower bands suggest lower volatility and a more stable market environment. This can result in more predictable price movements and clearer trading signals.
**4. Entry and Exit Points :**
- Entry Points : Consider buying when the price bounces off the base line or a band, which could signal support in an uptrend.
- Exit Points : Evaluate selling or taking profits when the price nears upper bands or shows signs of reversal at these levels. This approach helps in locking in gains or minimizing losses during a downtrend.
**Chart Example:**
Here you can see how the price reacted getting closer to this level. All green circles show a bounce-off. So just from looking at the chart we can see a potential bounce again pretty soon.
** Disclosure :**
- ** Performance Claims :** The `Uptrick: Logarithmic Crypto Bands` indicator is designed to assist traders in analyzing price levels and trends. It is important to understand that this tool provides historical data analysis and does not guarantee future performance. The features and benefits described are based on historical market behavior and should not be seen as a prediction of future results. Traders should use this indicator as part of a broader trading strategy and consider other factors before making trading decisions.
Cumulative Net Money FlowDescription:
Dive into the financial depth of the markets with the "Cumulative Net Money Flow" indicator, designed to provide a comprehensive view of the monetary dynamics in trading. This tool is invaluable for traders and investors seeking to quantify the actual money entering or exiting the market over a specified period.
Features:
Value-Weighted Calculations: This indicator multiplies the trading volume by the price, offering a money flow perspective rather than just counting shares or contracts.
Custom Timeframe Adaptability: Adjust the timeframe to match your trading strategy, whether you are day trading, swing trading, or looking for longer-term trends.
Cumulative Insight: Tracks and accumulates net money flow to highlight overall market sentiment, making it easier to spot trends in capital movement.
Color-Coded Visualization: Displays positive money flow in green and negative money flow in red, providing clear, visual cues about market conditions.
Utility: "Cumulative Net Money Flow" is particularly effective in revealing the strength behind market movements. By understanding whether the money flow is predominantly buying or selling, traders can better align their strategies with market sentiment. This indicator is suited for various asset classes, including stocks, cryptocurrencies, and forex.
Lockin Strength Indicator (LSI)How It Works:
RSI Calculation: The standard RSI is calculated using a 14-period by default.
Volume Weighting: If enabled, the LSI modifies the RSI by weighting it based on the volume relative to its moving average. This emphasizes periods of high or low volume, which can be particularly useful for Solana-based assets that might have unique volume profiles.
Plotting: The LSI is plotted with standard overbought and oversold levels, and background highlighting makes these areas visually distinct.
Customization:
RSI Length: You can adjust the length of the RSI period.
Overbought/Oversold Levels: You can modify the levels for overbought and oversold signals.
Volume Weighting: You can toggle volume weighting on or off.
This indicator is designed to give you a more nuanced view of Solana cryptocurrencies by combining RSI with volume dynamics.
Daily Levels Percentual [TOLK] Settings Crypto and ForexPercentage zones refer to specific areas or bands on the price chart of a financial asset that are bounded by percentages of change relative to a reference point, such as the opening price or a reference value from a previous move.
These zones are useful for identifying support and resistance levels, predicting possible price reversals, or setting price targets. For example, on a price chart, you can create percentage zones to observe how the price behaves when it reaches 1%, 2%, 5%, 10%, etc., above or below a certain point.
These zones can be used in conjunction with other technical analysis tools, such as Fibonacci, moving averages, or volume analysis, to improve decision-making in trading strategies.
The default indicator levels are as follows:
SETTINGS Crypto:
Crypto Level 1 > 1.0%
Crypto Level 2 > 1.618%
Crypto Level 3 > 2.0%
Crypto Level 4 > 2.618%
Crypto Level 5 > 3.618%
Crypto Level 6 > 4.618%
Crypto Level 7 > 5.0%
Crypto Level 8 > 7.618%
Crypto Level 9 > 10.0%
Crypto Level 10 > 12.618%
Crypto Level 11 > 13.618%
Crypto Level 12 > 15%
Crypto Level 13 > 17.618%
Crypto Level 14 > 20%
SETTINGS Forex:
Forex Level 1 > 0.10%
Forex Level 2 > 0.1618%
Forex Level 3 > 0.20%
Forex Level 4 > 0.2618%
Forex Level 5 > 0.3618%
Forex Level 6 > 0.4618%
Forex Level 7 > 0.50%
Forex Level 8 > 0.7618%
Forex Level 9 > 1.0%
Forex Level 10 > 1.2618%
Forex Level 11 > 1.3618%
Forex Level 12 > 1.50%
Forex Level 13 > 1.7618%
Forex Level 14 > 2.0%
Percentage Levels This approach helps identify critical price levels where the asset may encounter support or resistance, making it easier to make trading decisions based on price movement patterns.
Project Monday Strategy [AlgoAI System]Overview
Project Monday is a sophisticated trading strategy designed for active market participants. This strategy can be used alongside other forms of technical analysis, providing traders with additional tools to enhance their market insights. While it offers a flexible approach for identifying and exploiting market inefficiencies, Project Monday does not fit every market condition and requires adjustments. Its core principles include technical analysis and risk management, all aimed at making informed trading decisions and managing risk effectively.
Features
Project Monday Strategy works in any market and includes many features:
Efficient Trading Presets: Offers ready-to-use presets that allow traders to start efficient trading with one click.
Confirmation Signals: Provides signals to help traders validate trends, emphasizing informed decision-making (not to be followed blindly).
Reversal Signals: Identifies signals to alert traders to potential reversals, encouraging careful analysis (not to be followed blindly).
Adaptability: Can be adjusted to fit different market conditions, ensuring ongoing effectiveness.
Multi-Market Application: Suitable for use across various asset classes including stocks, forex, commodities, and cryptocurrencies.
Integration: Can be used alongside other technical analysis tools for enhanced decision-making.
Position Sizing: Allows traders to determine optimal trade size using backtesting and trading performance dashboard.
Backtesting: Supports historical testing to refine and validate the strategy.
Continuous Monitoring: Includes features for ongoing performance evaluation and strategy adjustments.
Unique Project Monday Strategy Features on TradingView:
Adaptive Position Sizing: Dynamically adjusts the size of each position based on market conditions and predefined risk management criteria, ensuring optimal trade sizing and risk exposure.
Preliminary Position Opening: Allows traders to enter a position in anticipation of a signal confirmation, enabling them to capture early market movements and improve entry points.
Preliminary Position Closing: Enables traders to exit a position before a signal reversal, helping to lock in profits and minimize potential losses during volatile market conditions.
Adjusting Strategy Parameters:
Price Band Inputs:
Project Monday Strategy uses a set of configurable inputs to tailor its behavior according to the trader's preferences. The following are the key inputs for the price band calculations. Signals are not generated when the price remains within these bands.
“Length of Calculation” determines how many historical data points are used in the trend calculation. A shorter “Length of Calculation” will make the Price Band more responsive to recent price changes but may also increase the noise and the likelihood of false signals. A longer “Length of Calculation” will make the Price Band smoother, with less noise, but may cause more lag in reacting to price changes.
“Offset” determines the position of the Gaussian filter, which is used to weight the data points in the trend calculation. The offset is expressed as a fraction of the “Length of Calculation”, with a value between 0 and 1. A higher “Offset” will shift the Gaussian filter closer to the more recent data points, making the Price Band more responsive to recent price changes but potentially increasing noise. A lower “Offset” will shift the Gaussian filter closer to the centre of the window, resulting in a smoother Price Band but potentially introducing more lag.
“Sigma” refers to the standard deviation used in the Gaussian distribution function. This parameter determines the smoothness of the curve and the degree to which data points close to the centre of the “Length of Calculation” are weighted more heavily than those further away. A smaller “Sigma” will result in a narrower Gaussian filter, leading to a more responsive Price Band but with a higher chance of noise and false signals. A larger “Sigma” will result in a wider Gaussian filter, creating a smoother Price Band but with more lag.
Adjust the “Source” inputs to specify which type of price data should be used for strategy calculations and signal generation.
“Width of Band” input determines the multiplier for the band width. A higher value of “Width of Band” makes the price band wider, which generates fewer signals due to the lower probability of the price moving outside the band. Conversely, a lower multiplier makes the band narrower, generating more signals but also increasing the likelihood of false signals.
Direction input:
The Project Monday strategy includes an input to specify the direction of trades, allowing traders to control whether the strategy should consider long positions, short positions, or both. The following input parameter is used for this purpose:
This input parameter allows traders to define the type of positions the strategy will take. It has three options:
Only Long: The strategy will generate signals exclusively for buying or closing short positions, focusing on potential uptrends.
Only Short: The strategy will generate signals exclusively for selling or closing long positions, focusing on potential downtrends.
Both: The strategy will generate signals for both buying (long positions) and selling (short positions), allowing for a more comprehensive trading approach that captures opportunities in both rising and falling markets.
Signals Filter:
The Project Monday strategy includes inputs to filter signals based on higher timeframes and the length of the data used for filtering. These inputs help traders refine the strategy's performance by considering broader market trends and smoothing out short-term fluctuations.
Filter Timeframe input specifies the timeframe used for filtering signals. By choosing a higher timeframe, traders can filter out noise from shorter timeframes and focus on more significant trends. The options range from intraday minutes (e.g., 1, 5, 15 minutes) to daily (1D, 2D, etc.), weekly (1W, 2W, etc.), and monthly (1M) timeframes. This allows traders to align their strategy with their preferred trading horizon and market perspective.
Filter Length input defines the number of data points used for filtering signals on the selected timeframe. A longer filter length will smooth out the data more, helping to identify sustained trends and reduce the impact of short-term fluctuations. Conversely, a shorter filter length will make the filter more responsive to recent price changes, potentially generating more signals but also increasing sensitivity to market noise.
Adaptive Position Size:
The Project Monday strategy incorporates inputs for unique feature Adaptive Position Sizing (APS), which dynamically adjusts the size of trades based on market conditions and specified parameters. This feature helps optimize risk management and trading performance.
Enable Adaptive Position Size: Users can check or uncheck this box to enable or disable the Adaptive Position Size feature. When checked, the strategy dynamically adjusts position sizes based on the defined parameters. This allows traders to scale their positions according to market volatility and other factors, enhancing risk management and potentially improving returns. When unchecked, the strategy will not adjust position sizes adaptively, and positions will remain fixed as per other settings.
“Timeframe for Adaptive Position Size “input specifies the timeframe used for calculating the position size. Options range from intraday minutes (e.g., 30, 60 minutes) to daily (1D, 3D), weekly (1W), and monthly (1M) timeframes. Selecting an appropriate timeframe helps align position sizing calculations with the trader’s overall strategy and market perspective, ensuring that position sizes are adjusted based on relevant market data.
“APS Length” input defines the number of data points used to calculate the adaptive position size. A longer APS length will result in higher position sizes. Conversely, a shorter APS length will result in smaller position sizes.
Anticipatory Trading:
Project Monday Strategy includes inputs for unique feature Anticipatory Trading, allowing traders to open and close positions preliminarily based on certain conditions. This feature aims to provide an edge by taking action before traditional signals confirm.
Enable Preliminary Position Opening: Users can check or uncheck this box to enable or disable Preliminary Position Opening. When enabled, the strategy will open positions based on preliminary conditions before the standard signals are confirmed. This can help traders capitalize on early trend movements and potentially gain a better entry point.
Enable Preliminary Position Closing: Users can check or uncheck this box to enable or disable Preliminary Position Closing. When enabled, the strategy will close positions based on preliminary conditions before the standard exit signals are confirmed. This can help traders lock in profits or limit losses by exiting positions at the early signs of trend reversals.
“Position Size in %” input specifies the position size as a percentage of the trading capital. By setting this value, traders can control the amount of capital allocated to each trade. For example, a risk value of 40% means that 40% of the available trading capital will be used for each anticipatory trade. This helps in managing risk and ensuring that the position size aligns with the trader's risk tolerance and overall strategy.
Usage:
Signal Generation
Long signal indicates a potential uptrend, suggesting either buying or closing a short position. Short signal indicates a potential downtrend, suggesting either selling or closing a long position. Signals are generated on your chart when the price moves beyond a calculated price band based on the current trend.
Signal Filtering
The strategy includes a filtering mechanism based on the current or another timeframe. Filtering works best with higher timeframes. This component calculates the trend on a higher timeframe and predicts the trend, ensuring trades on the current timeframe are only opened if they align with the higher timeframe trend. Setting the right filter timeframe is crucial for obtaining the best signals.
Position Direction
Users can choose the direction of positions to open via the settings box. Options include only long positions, only short positions, or both.
Adaptive Position Size (APS)
Users can enable the Adaptive Position Size feature to adjust position sizes based on trend strength. The strategy evaluates the strength of the current trend based on a higher timeframe. The stronger the trend, the larger the position size for opening a position.
Anticipatory Trading
Users can activate this unique feature to enhance trading decisions. The strategy assesses the likelihood of receiving a main signal. If the opportunity appears strong, it opens a partial position, as specified in the settings box. As the probability of the signal strengthens, the strategy gradually increases the position size.
Exit Strategy
The strategy exits positions based on receiving a reverse signal. Positions opened through “Anticipatory trading” are exited incrementally as each preliminary signal reverses.
By following these steps, traders can implement the strategy to navigate various market scenarios, manage risk, and adjust trading performance over time. Adjusting parameters and monitoring signals diligently are key to adapting the strategy to individual trading styles and market conditions.
You will get
By purchasing the Project Monday strategy, you not only gain access to a cutting-edge system but also receive ready-to-use presets designed to help you start trading immediately and achieve optimal results. Additionally, you benefit from comprehensive support and the option to request custom presets for your desired financial instruments through our dedicated support team, ensuring you have the tools and assistance needed for successful trading.
Risk Disclaimer
This information is not a personalized investment recommendation, and the financial instruments or transactions mentioned in it may not be appropriate for your financial situation, investment objective(s), risk tolerance, and/or expected return. AlgoAI shall not be liable for any losses incurred in the event of transactions or investments in financial instruments mentioned in this information.
Capitulation Candle for Bitcoin and Crypto V1.0 [ADRIDEM]Overview
The Capitulation Candle for Bitcoin and Crypto script identifies potential capitulation events in the cryptocurrency market. Capitulation candles indicate a significant sell-off, often marking a potential market bottom. This script highlights such candles by analyzing volume, price action, and other technical conditions. Below is a detailed presentation of the script and its unique features.
Unique Features of the New Script
Volume-Based Analysis : Uses a volume multiplier to detect unusually high trading volumes, which are characteristic of capitulation events. The default multiplier is 5.0, but it can be adjusted to suit different market conditions.
Support Level Detection : Looks back over a customizable period (default is 150 bars) to find support levels, helping to identify significant price breaks.
ATR-Based Range Condition : Ensures that the price range of a capitulation candle is a multiple of the Average True Range (ATR), confirming significant price movement. The default ATR multiplier is 10.0.
Dynamic Dot Sizes : Plots dots of different sizes below capitulation candles based on volume thresholds, providing a visual indication of the volume's significance.
Visual Indicators : Highlights capitulation candles and plots support levels, offering clear visual cues for potential market bottoms.
Originality and Usefulness
This script uniquely combines volume analysis, support level detection, and ATR-based range conditions to identify capitulation candles. The dynamic dot sizes and clear visual indicators make it an effective tool for traders looking to spot potential reversal points in the cryptocurrency market.
Signal Description
The script includes several features that highlight potential capitulation events:
High Volume Detection : Identifies candles with unusually high trading volumes using a customizable volume multiplier.
Support Level Breaks : Detects candles breaking significant support levels over a customizable lookback period.
ATR Range Condition : Ensures the candle's range is significant compared to the ATR, confirming substantial price movement.
Dynamic Dot Sizes : Plots small, normal, and large dots below candles based on different volume thresholds.
These features assist in identifying potential capitulation events and provide visual cues for traders.
Detailed Description
Input Variables
Volume Multiplier (`volMultiplier`) : Detects high-volume candles using this multiplier. Default is 5.0.
Support Lookback Period (`supportLookback`) : The period over which support levels are calculated. Default is 150.
ATR Multiplier (`atrMultiplier`) : Ensures the candle's range is a multiple of the ATR. Default is 10.0.
Small Volume Multiplier Threshold (`smallThreshold`) : Threshold for small dots. Default is 5.
Normal Volume Multiplier Threshold (`normalThreshold`) : Threshold for normal dots. Default is 10.
Large Volume Multiplier Threshold (`largeThreshold`) : Threshold for large dots. Default is 15.
Functionality
High Volume Detection : The script calculates the simple moving average (SMA) of the volume and checks if the current volume exceeds the SMA by a specified multiplier.
```pine
smaVolume = ta.sma(volume, supportLookback)
isHighVolume = volume > smaVolume * volMultiplier
```
Support Level Detection : Determines the lowest low over the lookback period to identify significant support levels.
```pine
supportLevel = ta.lowest(low , supportLookback)
isLowestLow = low == supportLevel
```
ATR Range Condition : Calculates the ATR and ensures the candle's range is significant compared to the ATR.
```pine
atr = ta.atr(supportLookback)
highestHigh = ta.highest(high, supportLookback)
rangeCondition = (highestHigh - low ) >= (atr * atrMultiplier)
```
Combining Conditions : Combines various conditions to identify capitulation candles.
```pine
isHigherVolumeThanNext = volume > volume
isHigherVolumeThanPrevious = volume > volume
bodySize = math.abs(close - open )
candleRange = high - low
rangeBiggerThanPreviousBody = candleRange > bodySize
isCapitulationCandle = isHighVolume and isHigherVolumeThanPrevious and isHigherVolumeThanNext and isLowestLow and rangeCondition and rangeBiggerThanPreviousBody
```
Dynamic Dot Sizes : Determines dot sizes based on volume thresholds and plots them below the identified capitulation candles.
```pine
isSmall = volume > smaVolume * smallThreshold and volume <= smaVolume * normalThreshold
isNormal = volume > smaVolume * normalThreshold and volume <= smaVolume * largeThreshold
isLarge = volume > smaVolume * largeThreshold
plotshape(series=isCapitulationCandle and isSmall, location=location.belowbar, offset=-1, color=color.rgb(255, 82, 82, 40), style=shape.triangleup, size=size.small)
plotshape(series=isCapitulationCandle and isNormal, location=location.belowbar, offset=-1, color=color.rgb(255, 82, 82, 30), style=shape.triangleup, size=size.normal)
plotshape(series=isCapitulationCandle and isLarge, location=location.belowbar, offset=-1, color=color.rgb(255, 82, 82, 20), style=shape.triangleup, size=size.large)
```
Plotting : The script plots support levels and highlights capitulation candles with different sizes based on volume significance.
```pine
plot(supportLevel, title="Support Level", color=color.rgb(255, 82, 82, 50), linewidth=1, style=plot.style_line)
```
How to Use
Configuring Inputs : Adjust the volume multiplier, support lookback period, ATR multiplier, and volume thresholds as needed.
Interpreting the Indicator : Use the plotted support levels and highlighted capitulation candles to identify potential market bottoms and reversal points.
Signal Confirmation : Look for capitulation candles with high volumes breaking significant support levels and meeting the ATR range condition. The dynamic arrow sizes help to assess the volume's significance.
This script provides a detailed and visual method to identify potential capitulation events in the cryptocurrency market, aiding traders in spotting possible reversal points and making informed trading decisions.
Bitcoin Futures vs. Spot Tri-Frame - Strategy [presentTrading]Prove idea with a backtest is always true for trading.
I developed and open-sourced it as an educational material for crypto traders to understand that the futures and spot spread may be effective but not be as effective as they might think. It serves as an indicator of sentiment rather than a reliable predictor of market trends over certain periods. It is better suited for specific trading environments, which require further research.
█ Introduction and How it is Different
The "Bitcoin Futures vs. Spot Tri-Frame Strategy" utilizes three different timeframes to calculate the Z-Score of the spread between BTC futures and spot prices on Binance and OKX exchanges. The strategy executes long or short trades based on composite Z-Score conditions across the three timeframes.
The spread refers to the difference in price between BTC futures and BTC spot prices, calculated by taking a weighted average of futures prices from multiple exchanges (Binance and OKX) and subtracting a weighted average of spot prices from the same exchanges.
BTCUSD 1D L/S Performance
█ Strategy, How It Works: Detailed Explanation
🔶 Calculation of the Spread
The spread is the difference in price between BTC futures and BTC spot prices. The strategy calculates the spread by taking a weighted average of futures prices from multiple exchanges (Binance and OKX) and subtracting a weighted average of spot prices from the same exchanges. This spread serves as the primary metric for identifying trading opportunities.
Spread = Weighted Average Futures Price - Weighted Average Spot Price
🔶 Z-Score Calculation
The Z-Score measures how many standard deviations the current spread is from its historical mean. This is calculated for each timeframe as follows:
Spread Mean_tf = SMA(Spread_tf, longTermSMA)
Spread StdDev_tf = STDEV(Spread_tf, longTermSMA)
Z-Score_tf = (Spread_tf - Spread Mean_tf) / Spread StdDev_tf
Local performance
🔶 Composite Entry Conditions
The strategy triggers long and short entries based on composite Z-Score conditions across all three timeframes:
- Long Condition: All three Z-Scores must be greater than the long entry threshold.
Long Condition = (Z-Score_tf1 > zScoreLongEntryThreshold) and (Z-Score_tf2 > zScoreLongEntryThreshold) and (Z-Score_tf3 > zScoreLongEntryThreshold)
- Short Condition: All three Z-Scores must be less than the short entry threshold.
Short Condition = (Z-Score_tf1 < zScoreShortEntryThreshold) and (Z-Score_tf2 < zScoreShortEntryThreshold) and (Z-Score_tf3 < zScoreShortEntryThreshold)
█ Trade Direction
The strategy allows the user to specify the trading direction:
- Long: Only long trades are executed.
- Short: Only short trades are executed.
- Both: Both long and short trades are executed based on the Z-Score conditions.
█ Usage
The strategy can be applied to BTC or Crypto trading on major exchanges like Binance and OKX. By leveraging discrepancies between futures and spot prices, traders can exploit market inefficiencies. This strategy is suitable for traders who prefer a statistical approach and want to diversify their timeframes to validate signals.
█ Default Settings
- Input TF 1 (60 minutes): Sets the first timeframe for Z-Score calculation.
- Input TF 2 (120 minutes): Sets the second timeframe for Z-Score calculation.
- Input TF 3 (180 minutes): Sets the third timeframe for Z-Score calculation.
- Long Entry Z-Score Threshold (3): Defines the threshold above which a long trade is triggered.
- Short Entry Z-Score Threshold (-3): Defines the threshold below which a short trade is triggered.
- Long-Term SMA Period (100): The period used to calculate the simple moving average for the spread.
- Use Hold Days (true): Enables holding trades for a specified number of days.
- Hold Days (5): Number of days to hold the trade before exiting.
- TPSL Condition (None): Defines the conditions for taking profit and stop loss.
- Take Profit (%) (30.0): The percentage at which the trade will take profit.
- Stop Loss (%) (20.0): The percentage at which the trade will stop loss.
By fine-tuning these settings, traders can optimize the strategy to suit their risk tolerance and trading style, enhancing overall performance.
Funding Rate [CryptoSea]The Funding Rate Indicator by is a comprehensive tool designed to analyze funding rates across multiple cryptocurrency exchanges. This indicator is essential for traders who want to monitor funding rates and their impact on market trends.
Key Features
Exchange Coverage: Includes data from major exchanges such as Binance, Bitmex, Bybit, HTX, Kraken, OKX, Bitstamp, and Coinbase.
Perpetual Futures and Spot Markets: Fetches and analyzes pricing data from both perpetual futures and spot markets to provide a holistic view.
Smoothing and Customization: Allows users to smooth funding rates using a moving average, with customizable MA lengths for tailored analysis.
Dynamic Candle Coloring: Option to color candles based on trading conditions, enhancing visual analysis.
In the example below, the indicator shows how the funding rate shifts with market conditions, providing clear visual cues for bullish and bearish trends.
How it Works
Data Integration: Uses a secure security fetching function to retrieve pricing data while preventing look-ahead bias, ensuring accurate and reliable information.
TWAP Calculation: Computes Time-Weighted Average Prices (TWAP) for both perpetual futures and spot prices, forming the basis for funding rate calculations.
Funding Rate Calculation: Determines the raw funding rate by comparing TWAPs of perpetual futures and spot prices, then applies smoothing to highlight significant trends.
Color Coding: Highlights the funding rate with distinct colors (bullish and bearish), making it easier to interpret market conditions at a glance.
In the example below, the indicator effectively differentiates between bullish and bearish funding rates, aiding traders in making informed decisions based on current market dynamics.
Application
Market Analysis: Enables traders to analyze the impact of funding rates on market trends, facilitating more strategic decision-making.
Trend Identification: Assists in identifying potential market reversals by monitoring shifts in funding rates.
Customizable Settings: Provides extensive input settings for exchange selection, MA length, and candle coloring, allowing for personalized analysis.
The Funding Rate Indicator by is a powerful addition to any trader's toolkit, offering detailed insights into funding rates across multiple exchanges to navigate the cryptocurrency market effectively.
Multi ETH Rolling APY Calculator [presentTrading]This one is for SEC paves way for Ethereum ETFs in boost for crypto!
█ Introduction and How it is Different
The "Multi ETH Rolling APY Calculator" is a sophisticated Pine Script tool designed to analyze the annualized difference between Ethereum (ETH) spot and futures prices. This tool is essential for identifying arbitrage opportunities and assessing market sentiment, offering traders invaluable insights into market dynamics. By calculating the premium or discount of futures contracts relative to the spot price and annualizing this figure based on the time until each contract's expiration, the Multi ETH Rolling APY Calculator provides a clear view of potential profit margins and market trends.
Unlike traditional trading indicators that focus solely on price movements or technical patterns, this calculator delves deeper into the futures market, providing a dual-purpose tool. It not only helps in spotting arbitrage opportunities but also serves as a gauge for the emotional state of the market, thereby offering a more comprehensive analysis of market conditions. This dual functionality sets it apart, making it a must-have for traders looking to navigate the volatile cryptocurrency trading landscape effectively.
Historical backtesting has revealed that Bitcoin's Rolling APY can serve as a robust indicator of market sentiment:
- Below 0%: Often indicates panic or 'end-of-world' scenarios.
- 0-5%: Signifies extreme market fear.
- 5-10%: Reflects a calm market environment.
- 10-15%: Suggests a moderately warm market.
- 15-20%: Indicates an overheated market.
- **Above 20%: Signals FOMO (fear of missing out).
█ Strategy, How it Works: Detailed Explanation
The Multi ETH Rolling APY Calculator employs a systematic approach to derive its insights. The process is broken down into several steps, each contributing to the overall analysis:
🔶 Data Fetching: The script first fetches the necessary data, including the closing prices of Ethereum's spot market and selected futures contracts. These futures contracts are typically set to expire at different dates, providing a broad perspective on market expectations over time.
🔶 Time and Expiration: The tool takes into account the current time and the expiration dates of the futures contracts. This helps in calculating the number of days remaining until each contract's expiration.
🔶 Premium Calculations: The premium or discount of each futures contract relative to the spot price is computed. This is done by subtracting the spot price from the futures price and then dividing the result by the spot price. This calculation gives a percentage that represents the premium or discount.
🔶 Annualized Percentage Yield (APY) Calculations: The calculated premium or discount is then annualized based on the number of days remaining until the contract's expiration. This involves multiplying the premium or discount by the factor (365 / days remaining) to annualize the figure. If the user chooses not to annualize the numbers, this step is skipped.
🔶 Plotting Results: The annualized yields are then plotted on a chart, allowing traders to visualize the potential returns from different futures contracts. The plots are color-coded for easy differentiation and quick analysis.
By following this structured approach, the Multi ETH Rolling APY Calculator provides traders with clear, actionable insights into market dynamics and potential arbitrage opportunities.
█ Trade Direction
While this tool does not provide direct trading signals, it informs traders about potential arbitrage opportunities and the prevailing market sentiment. Traders can leverage this data to make strategic decisions, aligning long or short positions with the anticipated market movements and arbitrage conditions.
█ Usage
By inputting specific parameters related to their market analysis, traders can monitor discrepancies in Bitcoin’s pricing across different timelines, which is especially beneficial for those involved in derivatives trading, arbitrage, and sentiment analysis.
█ Default Settings
- Resolution: Controls the frequency of data (default is daily).
- Show numbers in annual: Determines whether APY is displayed on an annual basis.
- Base Symbol and Future Symbols: Specify the spot and futures markets for analysis.
RSI Screener / Heatmap - By LeviathanThis script allows you to quickly scan the market by displaying the RSI values of up to 280 tickers at once and visualizing them in an easy-to-understand format using labels with heatmap coloring.
📊 Source
The script can display the RSI from a custom timeframe (MTF) and custom length for the following data:
- Price
- OBV (On Balance Volume)
- Open Interest (for crypto tickers)
📋 Ticker Selection
This script uses a different approach for selecting tickers. Instead of inputting them one by one via input.symbol(), you can now copy-paste or edit a list of tickers in the text area window. This approach allows users to easily exchange ticker lists between each other and, for example, create multiple lists of tickers by sector, market cap, etc., and easily input them into the script. Full credit to @allanster for his functions for extracting tickers from the text. Users can switch between 7 groups of 40 tickers each, totaling 280 tickers.
🖥️ Display Types
- Screener with Labels: Each ticker has its own color-coded label located at its RSI value.
- Group Average RSI: A standard RSI plot that displays the average RSI of all tickers in the group.
- RSI Heatmap (coming soon): Color-coded rows displaying current and historical values of tickers.
- RSI Divergence Heatmap (coming soon): Color-coded rows displaying current and historical regular/hidden bullish/bearish divergences for tickers.
🎨 Appearance
Appearance is fully customizable via user inputs, allowing you to change heatmap/gradient colors, zone coloring, and more.
LONG/SHORT PIFRO que esse indicador faz?
Esse indicador tem o objetivo de plotar o valor de Premium Index e Funding Rate de qualquer token que seja negociado nos futuros da Binance. Basta acessar o token, por exemplo "BTCUSDT" ou "BTCUSDT.P" e o indicador funcionará de forma automática.
A ideia de leitura desse indicador é verificar as maiores oscilações e aliar a analise técnica para tomar uma decisão de compra ou venda.
What does this indicator do?
This indicator aims to plot the Premium Index and Funding Rate value of any token that is traded on Binance futures. Just access the token, for example "BTCUSDT" or "BTCUSDT.P" and the indicator will work automatically.
The idea of reading this indicator is to check the biggest fluctuations and combine technical analysis to make a buy or sell decision.
=============
O que é o Índice Bitcoin Premium?
O índice Bitcoin Premium rastreia o prêmio ou desconto dos contratos perpétuos de Bitcoin em relação ao preço do índice à vista por minuto. O Índice de prêmio é baseado na diferença de preço entre o último preço negociado de um contrato perpétuo e o preço do índice à vista. O preço do índice à vista é um índice à vista ponderado pelo volume, o que significa um preço médio obtido em várias bolsas.
Basicamente, ele mostra para cada criptomoeda se o mercado à vista está negociando acima ou abaixo do contrato perpétuo. O valor pode ser superior, inferior ou igual a 0. Quando o valor está acima de 0, o contrato perpétuo está sendo negociado acima do “preço de referência”, quando o valor está abaixo de 0, o índice à vista está negociando acima do contrato perpétuo .
Como ler o índice premium do Bitcoin?
Existem várias maneiras de visualizar o Índice Bitcoin Premium. Você pode observar o valor (acima ou abaixo de 0) semelhante às taxas de financiamento ou pode observar certos extremos. Esta informação pode ser muito útil na sua estratégia de negociação. O gráfico é exibido como um gráfico de velas com um corpo e o pavio (também conhecido como sombra) da vela. O pavio pode mostrar um certo extremo, enquanto o fechamento da vela mostra o valor.
O valor acima ou abaixo de 0 mostra se o preço dos contratos perpétuos de Bitcoin está sendo negociado acima ou abaixo do índice à vista. Quando o índice à vista está sendo negociado em alta, o prêmio cai abaixo de 0 e fica negativo, geralmente, isso é conhecido como um sinal de alta. Quando o valor está sendo negociado acima de 0 e fica positivo, significa que o contrato perpétuo do Bitcoin está sendo negociado acima do índice à vista, geralmente isso é visto como um sinal de baixa.
Os mercados são um reflexo das emoções humanas e muitas vezes, antes que o preço possa mudar, vemos um certo extremo nas emoções. Esse extremo pode ser identificado no Índice Premium. Quando temos um sinal extremo no Índice Bitcoin Premium as chances de uma reversão aumentam. Esta pode ser uma reversão de curto prazo ou uma reversão maior.
Resumindo, um prêmio de índice à vista é geralmente de alta e um prêmio de derivativos é geralmente um sinal de baixa.
Mas, tal como acontece com as taxas de financiamento, por vezes demora um pouco para que essa pressão de compra ou venda seja expressa no preço e, portanto, é sempre importante combinar esta métrica com outras métricas, como a estrutura de preços.
Por exemplo, aqui na imagem abaixo podemos ver uma leitura extrema no índice premium do Bitcoin. Embora várias horas após o evento ainda vejamos a subida do preço, vemos que está bastante perto de uma reversão e, eventualmente, o preço muda.
Descrição por whaleportal
What is the Bitcoin Premium Index?
The Bitcoin Premium index tracks the premium or discount of Bitcoin perpetual contracts relative to the spot index price per minute. The premium Index is based on the difference in price between the last traded price of a perpetual contract and the spot index price. The spot index price is a volume- weighted spot index, which means an average price taken from multiple exchanges.
Basically, it shows you for each cryptocurrency whether the spot market is trading higher or lower than the perpetual contract. The value can either be above, below, or equal to 0. When the value is above 0, the perpetual contract is trading higher than the “mark price”, when the value is below 0 the spot index is trading higher than the perpetual contract.
How to read the Bitcoin premium index?
There are multiple ways to view the Bitcoin Premium Index. You can either look at the value (above or below 0) similar to the funding rates or you can look at certain extremes. This information can be very helpful in your trading strategy. The chart is displayed as a candlestick chart with a body and the wick (also known as shadow) of the candle. The wick can show a certain extreme, while the close of the candle shows the value.
The value, either above or below 0 shows whether the price of Bitcoin perpetual contracts is trading higher or lower than the spot index. When the spot index is trading higher, the premium will go below 0 and turns negative, usually, this is known to be a bullish sign. When the value is trading higher than 0 and turns positive, it means the Bitcoin perpetual contract is trading higher than the spot index, usually, this is seen as a bearish signal.
The markets are a reflection of human emotions and often before the price can shift we are seeing a certain extreme in emotions. That extreme can be spotted in the Premium Index. When we have an extreme signal in the Bitcoin Premium Index the chances of a reversal increase. This can be either a short-term reversal or a bigger reversal.
In short, a spot index premium is usually bullish and a derivatives premium is usually a bearish signal.
But as with funding rates, it sometimes takes a moment for that buying or selling pressure to be expressed in the price and therefore it is always important to combine this metric with other metrics like the price structure.
For example, here in the image below we can see an extreme reading in the premium index on Bitcoin. Although in several hours after the event we still see the price climb, we do see that it’s rather close to a reversal and eventually the price turns around.
Description by whaleportal
Calculus Free Trend Strategy for Crypto & StocksObjective :
The Correlation Channel Trading Strategy is designed to identify potential entry points based on the relationship between price movements and a correlation channel. The strategy aims to capture trends within the channel while managing risk effectively.
Parameters :
Length: Determines the period for calculating moving averages and the true range, influencing the sensitivity of the strategy to price movements.
Multiplier: Adjusts the width of the correlation channel, providing flexibility to adapt to different market conditions.
Inputs :
Asset Symbol: Allows users to specify the financial instrument for analysis.
Timeframe: Defines the timeframe for data aggregation, enabling customization based on trading preferences.
Plot Correlation Channel: Optional input to visualize the correlation channel on the price chart.
Methodology :
Data Acquisition: The strategy fetches OHLC (Open, High, Low, Close) data for the specified asset and timeframe. In this case we use COINBASE:BTCUSD
Calculation of Correlation Channel: It computes the squared values for OHLC data, calculates the average value (x), and then calculates the square root of x to derive the source value. Additionally, it calculates the True Range as the difference between high and low prices.
Moving Averages: The strategy calculates moving averages (MA) for the source value and the True Range, which form the basis for defining the correlation channel.
Upper and Lower Bands: Using the MA and True Range, the strategy computes upper and lower bands of the correlation channel, with the width determined by the multiplier.
Entry Conditions: Long positions are initiated when the price crosses above the upper band, signaling potential overbought conditions. Short positions are initiated when the price crosses below the lower band, indicating potential oversold conditions.
Exit Conditions: Stop-loss mechanisms are incorporated directly into the entry conditions to manage risk. Long positions are exited if the price falls below a predefined stop-loss level, while short positions are exited if the price rises above the stop-loss level.
Strategy Approach: The strategy aims to capitalize on trends within the correlation channel, leveraging systematic entry signals while actively managing risk through stop-loss orders.
Backtest Details : For the purpose of this test I used the entire data available for BTCUSD Coinbase, with 10% of capital allocation and 0.1% comission for entry/exit(0.2% total). Can be also used with other both directly correlated with current settings of BTC or with new ones
Advantages :
Provides a systematic approach to trading based on quantifiable criteria.
Offers flexibility through customizable parameters to adapt to various market conditions.
Integrates risk management through predefined stop-loss mechanisms.
Limitations :
Relies on historical price data and technical indicators, which may not always accurately predict future price movements.
May generate false signals during periods of low volatility or erratic price behavior.
Requires continuous monitoring and adjustment of parameters to maintain effectiveness.
Conclusion :
The Correlation Channel Trading Strategy offers traders a structured framework for identifying potential entry points within a defined price channel. By leveraging moving averages and true range calculations, the strategy aims to capture trends while minimizing risk through stop-loss mechanisms. While no strategy can guarantee success in all market conditions, the Correlation Channel Trading Strategy provides a systematic approach to trading that can enhance decision-making and risk management for traders.
Spot Martingale KuCoin - The Quant ScienceINTRODUCTION
Backtesting software of the Spot Martingale algorithm offered by the KuCoin exchange.
This script replicates the logic used by the KuCoin bot and is useful for analyzing strategy on any cryptocurrency historical series.
It's not intended as an automatic trading algorithm and does not offer the possibility of automatic order execution.
The trader will use this software exclusively to research the best parameters with which to work on KuCoin.
LOGIC OF EXECUTION
The execution of orders is composed as follows:
1) Start Martingale: initial order
2) Martingale-Number: orders following Start Martingale
(A) The software is designed and developed to replicate trading without taking into account technical indicators or particular market conditions. The Initial Order (Start Martingale) will be executed immediately the close of the previous Martingale when the balance of market orders is zero. It will use the capital set in the Properties section for the initial order.
(B) After the first order, the software will open new orders as the price decreases. For orders following Start Martingale, the initial capital, multiplier, and number of orders in the exponential growth context are considered. The multiplier is the factor that determines the proportional increase in capital with each new order. The number of orders, indicates how many times the multiplier is applied to increase the investment.
Example
To find out the capital used in Martingale order number 5, with a Multiple For Position Increase equal to 2 and a starting capital of $100, the formula will be as follows:
Martingale Order = ($100 * (2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2)) = $100 * 32 = $3.200
(C) A multiplier is used for each new order that will increase the quantity purchased.
(D) All previously open orders are closed once the take profit is reached.
USER MANUAL
The user interface consists of two main sections:
1. Settings
Percentage Drop for Position Increase (0.1-15%) : percentage distance between Martingale orders. For example, if you set 5% each new order will be opened after a 5% price decrease from the previous one.
Max Position Increases (1-15) : number of Martingale orders to be executed after Start Martingale. For example, if you set 10, up to10 orders will be opened after Start Martingale.
Multiple For Position Increase (1-2x) : capital multiplier. For example, if you set 2 each for each new order, the capital involved will be doubled, order by order.
Take Profit Percentage (0.5-1000%) : percentage take profit, calculated on the average entry price.
2. Date Range Backtesting
The Date Range Backtesting section adjusts the analysis period. The user can easily adjust the UI parameters, and automatically the software will update the data.
LIMITATIONS OF THE MODEL
Although the Martingale model is widely used in position management, even this model has limitations and is subject to real risks during particular market conditions. Knowing these conditions will help you understand which asset is best to use the strategy on.
The main risks in adopting this automatic strategy are 2:
1) The price falls below our last order.
It happens during periods of strong bear-market in which the price collapses abruptly without experiencing any pullback. In this case the algorithm will enter a drawdown phase and the strategy will become a loser. The trader will then have to consider whether to wait for a price recovery or to incur a loss by manually closing the algorithm.
2) The price increases quickly.
It happens during periods of strong bull-market in which the price rises abruptly without experiencing any pullback. In this case the algorithm will not optimize order execution, working only with Start Martingale in the vast majority of trades. Given the exponential nature of the investment, the algorithm will in this case generate a profit that is always less than that of the reference market.
The best market conditions to use this strategy are characterized by high volatility such as correction phases during a bull run and/or markets that exhibit sideways price trends (such as areas of accumulation or congestion where price will generate many false signals).
FEATURES
This script was developed by including features to optimize the user experience.
Includes a dashboard at launch that allows the user to intuitively enter backtesting parameters.
Includes graphical indicator that helps the user analyze the behavior of the strategy.
Includes a date period backtesting feature that allows the user to adjust and choose custom historical periods.
DISCLAIMER
This script was released using parameters researched solely for the BTC/USDT pair, 4H timeframe, traded on the KuCoin Exchange (2017-present). Do not consider this combination of parameters as universal and usable on all assets and timeframes.
Entry FraggerEntry Fragger is a simple buy signal indicator.
It is most suitable for cryptocurrency, especially for altcoins on the 5 minute to daily timeframe and is based on simple volume calculations, in combination with EMA's.
Main Signal Logic explained:
A buy signal is generated by counting candles with an above average sell volume of 130% to 170%, taking into account the candles position below and above the 50 and 200 EMA.
If criteria meet, the first green candle above the 50 EMA's suggests upcoming higher prices.
The indicator has 2 input variables.
"Signal Confirmations (0 - 7):" Changes signal accuracy by a defining an ammount of high sell volume candles necessary below the 50 EMA.
"Volume Calculation Base (9 - 200):" Sets the exponential volume multiplier, this affects candle coloring and the volume calculation inside the candle.
"Style Settings": Turn ON/OFF Signals, Cloud, Bar Coloring, EMA's, etc...
There are no generally suitable default numbers for those 2 inputs, those have to be tested out, depending on cryptocurrency and timeframe.
The calculation is very basic, the underlying idea being, market maker initiating range breakouts through rapid increase of volume above or below the EMA's .
Example settings:
SOLUSDT: Signal Confirmations: 2, Volume Calculation Base 13.
SOLUSDT: Signal Confirmations: 0, Volume Calculation Base 20.
As you can see it affects signals quite a lot, but staying accurate.
Finetune the inputs to your preference.
Risk to Reward, Stoploss, Take Profit, position sizing, etc... is up to the user.
Recommended entry is to wait for following candle closes, entering half of the candle size and setting Stoploss outside the structure, like this:
Or right below the candles open, for safety.
Bitcoin Momentum StrategyThis is a very simple long-only strategy I've used since December 2022 to manage my Bitcoin position.
I'm sharing it as an open-source script for other traders to learn from the code and adapt it to their liking if they find the system concept interesting.
General Overview
Always do your own research and backtesting - this script is not intended to be traded blindly (no script should be) and I've done limited testing on other markets beyond Ethereum and BTC, it's just a template to tweak and play with and make into one's own.
The results shown in the strategy tester are from Bitcoin's inception so as to get a large sample size of trades, and potential returns have diminished significantly as BTC has grown to become a mega cap asset, but the script includes a date filter for backtesting and it has still performed solidly in recent years (speaking from personal experience using it myself - DYOR with the date filter).
The main advantage of this system in my opinion is in limiting the max drawdown significantly versus buy & hodl. Theoretically much better returns can be made by just holding, but that's also a good way to lose 70%+ of your capital in the inevitable bear markets (also speaking from experience).
In saying all of that, the future is fundamentally unknowable and past results in no way guarantee future performance.
System Concept:
Capture as much Bitcoin upside volatility as possible while side-stepping downside volatility as quickly as possible.
The system uses a simple but clever momentum-style trailing stop technique I learned from one of my trading mentors who uses this approach on momentum/trend-following stock market systems.
Basically, the system "ratchets" up the stop-loss to be much tighter during high bearish volatility to protect open profits from downside moves, but loosens the stop loss during sustained bullish momentum to let the position ride.
It is invested most of the time, unless BTC is trading below its 20-week EMA in which case it stays in cash/USDT to avoid holding through bear markets. It only trades one position (no pyramiding) and does not trade short, but can easily be tweaked to do whatever you like if you know what you're doing in Pine.
Default parameters:
HTF: Weekly Chart
EMA: 20-Period
ATR: 5-period
Bar Lookback: 7
Entry Rule #1:
Bitcoin's current price must be trading above its higher-timeframe EMA (Weekly 20 EMA).
Entry Rule #2:
Bitcoin must not be in 'caution' condition (no large bearish volatility swings recently).
Enter at next bar's open if conditions are met and we are not already involved in a trade.
"Caution" Condition:
Defined as true if BTC's recent 7-bar swing high minus current bar's low is > 1.5x ATR, or Daily close < Daily 20-EMA.
Trailing Stop:
Stop is trailed 1 ATR from recent swing high, or 20% of ATR if in caution condition (ie. 0.2 ATR).
Exit on next bar open upon a close below stop loss.
I typically use a limit order to open & exit trades as close to the open price as possible to reduce slippage, but the strategy script uses market orders.
I've never had any issues getting filled on limit orders close to the market price with BTC on the Daily timeframe, but if the exchange has relatively low slippage I've found market orders work fine too without much impact on the results particularly since BTC has consistently remained above $20k and highly liquid.
Cost of Trading:
The script uses no leverage and a default total round-trip commission of 0.3% which is what I pay on my exchange based on their tier structure, but this can vary widely from exchange to exchange and higher commission fees will have a significantly negative impact on realized gains so make sure to always input the correct theoretical commission cost when backtesting any script.
Static slippage is difficult to estimate in the strategy tester given the wide range of prices & liquidity BTC has experienced over the years and it largely depends on position size, I set it to 150 points per buy or sell as BTC is currently very liquid on the exchange I trade and I use limit orders where possible to enter/exit positions as close as possible to the market's open price as it significantly limits my slippage.
But again, this can vary a lot from exchange to exchange (for better or worse) and if BTC volatility is high at the time of execution this can have a negative impact on slippage and therefore real performance, so make sure to adjust it according to your exchange's tendencies.
Tax considerations should also be made based on short-term trade frequency if crypto profits are treated as a CGT event in your region.
Summary:
A simple, but effective and fairly robust system that achieves the goals I set for it.
From my preliminary testing it appears it may also work on altcoins but it might need a bit of tweaking/loosening with the trailing stop distance as the default parameters are designed to work with Bitcoin which obviously behaves very differently to smaller cap assets.
Good luck out there!
Bitcoin Leverage Sentiment - Strategy [presentTrading]█ Introduction and How it is Different
The "Bitcoin Leverage Sentiment - Strategy " represents a novel approach in the realm of cryptocurrency trading by focusing on sentiment analysis through leveraged positions in Bitcoin. Unlike traditional strategies that primarily rely on price action or technical indicators, this strategy leverages the power of Z-Score analysis to gauge market sentiment by examining the ratio of leveraged long to short positions. By assessing how far the current sentiment deviates from the historical norm, it provides a unique lens to spot potential reversals or continuation in market trends, making it an innovative tool for traders who wish to incorporate market psychology into their trading arsenal.
BTC 4h L/S Performance
local
█ Strategy, How It Works: Detailed Explanation
🔶 Data Collection and Ratio Calculation
Firstly, the strategy acquires data on leveraged long (**`priceLongs`**) and short positions (**`priceShorts`**) for Bitcoin. The primary metric of interest is the ratio of long positions relative to the total of both long and short positions:
BTC Ratio=priceLongs / (priceLongs+priceShorts)
This ratio reflects the prevailing market sentiment, where values closer to 1 indicate a bullish sentiment (dominance of long positions), and values closer to 0 suggest bearish sentiment (prevalence of short positions).
🔶 Z-Score Calculation
The Z-Score is then calculated to standardize the BTC Ratio, allowing for comparison across different time periods. The Z-Score formula is:
Z = (X - μ) / σ
Where:
- X is the current BTC Ratio.
- μ is the mean of the BTC Ratio over a specified period (**`zScoreCalculationPeriod`**).
- σ is the standard deviation of the BTC Ratio over the same period.
The Z-Score helps quantify how far the current sentiment deviates from the historical norm, with high positive values indicating extreme bullish sentiment and high negative values signaling extreme bearish sentiment.
🔶 Signal Generation: Trading signals are derived from the Z-Score as follows:
Long Entry Signal: Occurs when the BTC Ratio Z-Score crosses above the thresholdLongEntry, suggesting bullish sentiment.
- Condition for Long Entry = BTC Ratio Z-Score > thresholdLongEntry
Long Exit/Short Entry Signal: Triggered when the BTC Ratio Z-Score drops below thresholdLongExit for exiting longs or below thresholdShortEntry for entering shorts, indicating a shift to bearish sentiment.
- Condition for Long Exit/Short Entry = BTC Ratio Z-Score < thresholdLongExit or BTC Ratio Z-Score < thresholdShortEntry
Short Exit Signal: Happens when the BTC Ratio Z-Score exceeds the thresholdShortExit, hinting at reducing bearish sentiment and a potential switch to bullish conditions.
- Condition for Short Exit = BTC Ratio Z-Score > thresholdShortExit
🔶Implementation and Visualization: The strategy applies these conditions for trade management, aligning with the selected trade direction. It visualizes the BTC Ratio Z-Score with horizontal lines at entry and exit thresholds, illustrating the current sentiment against historical norms.
█ Trade Direction
The strategy offers flexibility in trade direction, allowing users to choose between long, short, or both, depending on their market outlook and risk tolerance. This adaptability ensures that traders can align the strategy with their individual trading style and market conditions.
█ Usage
To employ this strategy effectively:
1. Customization: Begin by setting the trade direction and adjusting the Z-Score calculation period and entry/exit thresholds to match your trading preferences.
2. Observation: Monitor the Z-Score and its moving average for potential trading signals. Look for crossover events relative to the predefined thresholds to identify entry and exit points.
3. Confirmation: Consider using additional analysis or indicators for signal confirmation, ensuring a comprehensive approach to decision-making.
█ Default Settings
- Trade Direction: Determines if the strategy engages in long, short, or both types of trades, impacting its adaptability to market conditions.
- Timeframe Input: Influences signal frequency and sensitivity, affecting the strategy's responsiveness to market dynamics.
- Z-Score Calculation Period: Affects the strategy’s sensitivity to market changes, with longer periods smoothing data and shorter periods increasing responsiveness.
- Entry and Exit Thresholds: Set the Z-Score levels for initiating or exiting trades, balancing between capturing opportunities and minimizing false signals.
- Impact of Default Settings: Provides a balanced approach to leverage sentiment trading, with adjustments needed to optimize performance across various market conditions.
Blockunity Address Synthesis (BAS)Track the address status of the various cryptoassets and their evolution.
The Idea
The goal is to provide a simple tool for visualizing the evolution of different types of crypto addresses.
How to Use
This tool is to be used as fundamental information. It is not intended for investment or trading purposes.
Elements
Active Addresses
Active Addresses represent the subset of total addresses that made one or more on-chain transaction on a given day.
New Addresses
New Addresses refer to addresses that receive their first deposit in the selected crypto-asset.
Zero Balance Addresses
Zero Balance Addresses are addresses that transferred out (potentially sold) all of their holdings for the selected crypto-asset.
Total Addresses
Total Addresses refer to the overall count of unique addresses that have been created on a blockchain network.
Settings
In the settings, you can :
Adjust line smoothing (in terms of number of days).
Change the lookback period used to calculate the different variations.
Display or not the different address types (for better visualization, Total Addresses should be shown alone).
Show or hide labels and configure their offset.
Lastly, you can modify all table parameters.
Market Activity Risk"Market Activity Risk" (MAR) - Is a dynamic tool designed to structurize the competitive landscape of blockchain transaction blocks, offering traders a strategic edge in anticipating market movements.
By capturing where market participants are actively buying and selling, the MAR indicator provides insights into areas of high competition, allowing traders to make informed decisions and potentially front-run transactions.
At the heart of this tool are blockchain transaction fees , they can represent daily shifts in transaction fee pressures.
By measuring momentum in fees, we can analyze the urgency and competition among traders to have their transactions processed first. This indicator is particularly good at revealing potential support or resistance zones, areas where traders are likely to defend their positions or increase their stakes, thus serving as critical junctures for strategic decision-making.
Key Features:
Adaptable Standard Deviation Settings: Users have the flexibility to adjust the length of the standard deviation and its multipliers, managing the risk bands to their individual risk tolerance.
Color-Coded Risk Levels: The MAR indicator employs an intuitive color scheme, making it easy to interpret the data at a glance.
Multi-Currency Compatibility: While designed with Bitcoin in mind, the MAR indicator is versatile, functioning effectively across various cryptocurrencies including Ethereum, XRP, and several other major altcoins. This broad compatibility ensures that traders across different market segments can leverage the insights provided by this tool.
Customizable Moving Average: The 730-day moving average setting is thoughtfully chosen to reflect the nuances of a typical cryptocurrency cycle, capturing long-term trends and fluctuations. However, recognizing the diverse needs and perspectives of traders, the indicator allows for the moving average period to be modified.
Institutions vs. Crypto Whales Spot BuyingBased on analysis from @tedtalksmacro, I have put together a similar tool that helps to visualise whether institutions (Coinbase and Deribit) or native crypto whales (Binance and Bitfinex) are leading the BTC spot buying.
This is plotted as the normalised relative difference (-1 and 1) between the average of Coinbase and Deribit spot price versus Binance and Bitfinex. If positive (i.e. green bar), institutions are trading at a premium; if negative (i.e. red bar), crypto whales are trading at a premium.
For example, if crypto whales are trading at a premium and price is increasing, then they are leading the buying relative to institutions. However, if whales are trading at a premium and price is decreasing, then it is likely institutions are selling off at a more rapid rate relative to the crypto whales buying pressure. This applies to the alternate scenario where institutions are trading at a premium to crypto whales.
In recent times, native crypto whales (largely Binance) drove the push from 40 to 48k, but then also marked the local top with a major sell off at this price. Institutions then took over buying at the most recent lows, driven largely by GBTC outflows slowing down and Blackrock daily inflows exceeding Grayscale outflows for the first time late last week.
