AUDCHF at Make-or-Break Zone: Smart Money Reversal or Breakdown?

1. Price Action
Price is currently trading within a descending channel, with 0.5244 hovering near a key demand zone (0.5150–0.5200), where a first bullish reaction has already occurred.
The structure suggests a potential fake breakdown, with room for a rebound toward static resistances at 0.5330, and possibly 0.5450.
RSI is rising from oversold, showing signs of a potential bullish divergence.

📌 Technical bias: Waiting for confirmation of a reversal at key support.
Upside targets: 0.5330 > 0.5450.
Ideal stop-loss below 0.5160.

2. Retail Sentiment
72% of retail traders are long, with an average entry at 0.5551, now facing a 300+ pip drawdown.
This increases short-term contrarian bearish pressure, but also signals liquidity above the highs, which could be targeted before a true bullish reversal.

3. Commitment of Traders (as of June 17, 2025)

AUD – Bearish
Massive drop in both commercial longs (-60k) and shorts (-60k) suggests broad disengagement.
Non-commercials remain net short (-69k), with overall open interest declining.

CHF – Neutral to Bullish
CHF also sees declines in positioning, but commercial traders remain firmly net long (+51.7k).
Non-commercials are net short (-25.5k).

📌 COT Conclusion: AUD remains structurally weaker than CHF, but both currencies are showing signs of positioning uncertainty. This compression phase may precede a technical rebound on AUDCHF.

4. Seasonality

AUD
June historically shows modest strength on 10Y and 5Y averages.
However, 2Y data points to weakness → any rally may be short-lived or fragile.

CHF
CHF tends to be strong in June, especially on 20Y and 10Y views.
Yet, short-term (2Y) data shows end-of-month weakness, suggesting possible profit-taking ahead.

✅ Operational Outlook
Short-term bias: Long AUDCHF (corrective rebound)
Medium/long-term bias: Bearish (still in a downtrend)