BREAKOUT OR REJECTION? WATCH 0.64137 KEY ZONE CLOSELY!

AUDUSD 22/05 – BREAKOUT OR REJECTION? WATCH 0.64137 KEY ZONE CLOSELY!
🌐 MACRO OVERVIEW
DXY is starting to lose momentum after a sharp rally fueled by the Fed’s hawkish stance. However, there’s still no clear signal of an imminent rate cut.

Meanwhile, the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) maintains a steady policy, offering short-term support for AUD. While rates remain unchanged, the central bank’s cautious tone adds a defensive layer for the Aussie.

On the trade front, Australia has seen marginal recovery in commodity prices, though ongoing concerns about Chinese economic slowdown continue to weigh on sentiment.

📊 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (Timeframes: H1 – H4)
AUDUSD is forming a tight symmetrical triangle, with lower highs and higher lows — a typical precursor to a breakout.

The current price at 0.6418 is sitting right along the lower trendline. Price action here is critical to determine today’s direction.

🔍 Scenario A – Upside Breakout (30% probability):

If price breaks and closes above 0.64700–0.64910, we could see bullish continuation toward the 0.65134 resistance zone.

🔍 Scenario B – Breakdown (70% probability):

A strong break below 0.64137 could trigger a move toward 0.63964 and potentially deeper into the 0.63640 liquidity zone.

🎯 TODAY'S TRADE PLAN
🔵 BUY SCALP (only if price reacts strongly at trendline support)
Entry: 0.6414 – 0.6416
SL: 0.6408
TP Targets: 0.6445 → 0.6470 → 0.6490

🔴 SELL SETUP (if triangle is broken to the downside)
Entry: 0.6405 – 0.6396
SL: 0.6420
TP Targets: 0.6364 → 0.6340

⚠️ IMPORTANT NOTES
Expect high volatility during the U.S. session as PMI and Unemployment Claims data are released.

Stick to your TP/SL levels with discipline — the market may sweep liquidity on both sides before choosing a direction.

📌 SUMMARY:
AUDUSD is consolidating in a clean technical pattern while macro uncertainty looms. Whether we break up or down, the key is to trade what the market gives — not what we think. React to confirmation, not prediction.