BTC: A New Possible Bitcoin Narrative (But There's a Catch)

29 ott 2020

Hello traders, here I would like to take a moment to explain why the markets do not move in straight lines. This is an observation and a theory, not a prediction.

As we have seen a series of phenomenal fundamental bullish news this year alone, this does not mean that the market will go straight to $20,000. It can, but remember, the market is smarter than it was back in 2018. Dumb money is not circulating within the market as we speak, rather, we are seeing a series of healthy higher lows and a possible cup and handle pattern that may lead us to higher lows rather than dumb money completely dominating the market. Here is my post on healthy vs unhealthy bull runs (we are currently in a healthy bull market!):

The balance of fundamental and technical analysis is playing a crucial role in the price of Bitcoin and the market is heavily matured than it was previously, especially with the introduction of leveraged markets and somewhat regulated exchanges prohibiting the exponential growth of Bitcoin. We can speculate all we want, but it's important to start approaching the market from a realistic perspective.

As much as I would love to see Bitcoin go into the year 2021 with a price mark above $20,000, I find it highly unrealistic and the probabilities of it lies in the hands of the general public; however, one evidence suggested from Google Keyword Trends is showing that we have nowhere near the amount of public interest compared to the year 2018. I believe more and more that the market lengthening cycle is at play here and unless your neighbors are talking about buying Bitcoin, this market is currently playing with 'recycled' money. No technical analysis was proven for the year 2018, and no technical analysis proved the COVID-19 drop - as both of them were fundamentally driven. Here is a clear example of what I am talking about in my previous analysis, where I talk about the market lengthening cycle theory:

We are also seeing a strong correlation between the stock market and DXY (the US dollar). The US dollar is now playing an extremely big role within the market, and each step of the way we find new ways to understand Bitcoin's real price action, and the US dollar negative correlation is one example. Here is my previous post on the USD and BTC value correlation:

With that being said, putting all of our fundamental analysis aside, here I would like to present to you one of the most common technical patterns that may be starting to show: the 'Cup and Handle' pattern theory. The cup and handle pattern is formed after the price moves sharply in an upwards direction, after which the market begins to sell off and the price retraces slightly, helping to form the ‘cup’ section of the pattern. This gives a 'rounded bottom' appearance, similar to that of a bowl.

As the price continues on up, it retraces once again, this time more gradually, forming the 'handle' section of the pattern. Finally, it then makes a continuation move upwards beyond the initial high of the first move.

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