Position for dollar weakness. While some top Fed officials have recently sounded more hawkish and data has been relatively strong, we believe the Fed is still closer to pausing rate hikes than other central banks, including the European Central Bank, which looks set to continue tightening. We expect the US dollar to weaken further this year as the US interest rate and growth premiums erode. The Fed is also likely to cut rates sooner than other major central banks, in our view. We advise investors to hedge their long USD exposure. In our global foreign exchange strategy, we maintain a preference for the Australian dollar and Japanese yen, and see relative value in the euro, Swiss franc, and British pound. A weakening dollar should also support gold, which we forecast will rise to USD 2,250/oz by June 2024.