Gold End of the Year Rally

11 nov 2022

GC1!

Gold Futures marked on the weekly chart

Confluences:

• Major sellside liquidity taken with the break of the 2021 lows, should now seek the opposite: buyside.
  
• Respected the volume imbalance boxed at 1625-1650 by wicking up 3 times and candle bodies staying above; It shows signs of accumulation.
  
• Market Structure Shift (MSS). First time a short-term high was taken on the weekly chart this year.
  
• Very obvious bearish channel since the start of the year broken, therefore tons of liquidity to be taken from short sellers at previous highs.
  
• Relatively equal highs at ~2075. If a bullish reversal is at play, that is a magnet on price due to tons of liquidity resting above in the form of buy stops.
  
• Seasonality: Gold's best months are November, December, and January. If there was a best time to reverse, the coming months are it. See below for more details.
  

I marked 1920.0 as another target because it is an institutional reaction level based on how price has traded around it since the end of 2020. If the ~2075 equal highs are not to be broken in the upcoming price run, at the very least 1920.0 should be the draw on price before a bearish reversal should be considered.

My only concern is the triple bottom ~1625 which can be an attractive area for price to sweep before finally going up to take the previous highs.

Gold historical seasonality details: https://charts.equityclock.com/gold-futures-gc-seasonal-chart

23 gen 2023

Trade chiuso: obiettivo raggiunto

Gold has reached my main target. Will we be reaching for all-time highs? Maybe.