2024-12-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaq
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Another mind boggling rally with a strong break above 22000. Volume is atrocious but that does not matter one bit as long as we continue up. Market has now broken above at least 2 bigger patterns on my charts and every time a market does that, I expect it to fail, rather than to be the start of a new and stronger trend.
current market cycle: bull trend but very late and will end soon
key levels: 20000 - 20500
bull case: I got one more bullish target at 22400 but that’s it. We could reach it but I would be very cautious tomorrow and wait how much interest there is in buying above 22100 when the momentum fades. No more thoughts about this for now from a bullish perspective. It’s beyond overbought.
Invalidation is below 21800.
bear case: Many upper trend lines and breaks above them. Overbought conditions and low volume. All valid arguments but only price matters and that is going higher. 1h close below 21900 is needed for the bears. Before that I would not trust most selling attempts because it’s more likely they will become another bull flag and break to the upside again. I’d be very surprised if bears manage to get down to 21900 and close the gap.
Invalidation is above 22200.
short term: I’d rather look for shorts above 22100 than for more longs. Can go higher but it would do so without me.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 over the weekend.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Just balls to the walls long from us open or even Global for that matter. Unreal strength.
comment: Another mind boggling rally with a strong break above 22000. Volume is atrocious but that does not matter one bit as long as we continue up. Market has now broken above at least 2 bigger patterns on my charts and every time a market does that, I expect it to fail, rather than to be the start of a new and stronger trend.
current market cycle: bull trend but very late and will end soon
key levels: 20000 - 20500
bull case: I got one more bullish target at 22400 but that’s it. We could reach it but I would be very cautious tomorrow and wait how much interest there is in buying above 22100 when the momentum fades. No more thoughts about this for now from a bullish perspective. It’s beyond overbought.
Invalidation is below 21800.
bear case: Many upper trend lines and breaks above them. Overbought conditions and low volume. All valid arguments but only price matters and that is going higher. 1h close below 21900 is needed for the bears. Before that I would not trust most selling attempts because it’s more likely they will become another bull flag and break to the upside again. I’d be very surprised if bears manage to get down to 21900 and close the gap.
Invalidation is above 22200.
short term: I’d rather look for shorts above 22100 than for more longs. Can go higher but it would do so without me.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 over the weekend.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Just balls to the walls long from us open or even Global for that matter. Unreal strength.
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