Why everyone is probably wrong - Part II

29 apr 2023

The bears have never been louder. The highlights from various sources:

1) ‘Short’ ideas on the tradingview.com platform are in the majority. An abundance of bearish ideas. And what do we know about crowds?

2) Popular Youtubers/social media now calling for lows of 3300 and below after a strong bear market rally.

3) “The Yield curve is inverted a crash is now certain”.

4) Unemployment is at record low levels. It can only go one way, up.

5) Inflation is out of control!

6) US Banks collapsing every other week.

How does the news get any worse? A collapse to the basement is guaranteed right? I mean the News wouldn't lie to us would they?


Everyone is still wrong. Why is that WW? The chart stupid.

It has been 1 year to the day since market structure broke. One long year of accumulation. The bears believe this to be distribution. Why isn’t it?

Two questions everyone wishing to practice technical analysis should ask and MASTER:

1) What is the trend?
2) Support or resistance? Look left, which is it?


The trend
The trend has clearly reversed. Higher lows / higher highs have replaced lower lows / lower highs. Don’t fight the trend.

Support and resistance
Look left. The most powerful skill in TA. Look left. What do you see? Past resistance has clearly become support.

The combination of those two questions separates you from every other bearish prediction, very cool huh?

Ww

29 apr 2023

Nota

Thought this would be worth sharing, someone asks “Who is bearish?” - Everyone…

Most of Youtube
youtube.com/watch?v=-YswlDo90Gg

youtube.com/watch?v=2INAcG5AB1M

Tradingview.com
tradingview.com/symbols/VANTAGE-SP500/ideas/

tradingview.com/symbols/SPX/ideas/

Hedge funds - Got to admit, this made me laugh. Someone got a tiny violin?

“Hedge funds lose $18bn betting against tech stock rally”

ft.com/content/150bf973-39dc-4559-ba64-3682d124500b

29 apr 2023

Nota

The S&P 500 index has printed a signal not seen for 53 years, it is incredibly bullish. Do you know what it is?

1 mag 2023

Nota

Forgetting this 53 year signal (simply amazing by the by), did you see the signal that has only printed thrice in the last 2 years?

Weekly chart - Hammer candle AND Stochastic RSI 80+

2 mag 2023

Nota

long from 4050

5 mag 2023

Nota

Did you catch that 4050 price action? Stayed there for a max of 90 minutes!

25 minute chart.

8 mag 2023

Nota

If you're bear on the market, look away...

On the daily chart below you see two blue boxes with a specific candle pattern. You typically only see it print on important levels of support and resistance. This is the 2nd time this pattern has printed in the last 365 days. Do you know what it is? Leave a comment below if you know!

Daily chart

10 mag 2023

Nota

Long from 4050 a few updates back. Was about to publish another... Long from <4100 but it only stayed there for 10 minutes!

This was a V-shaped recovery at support, a lot of longs at this level.

5-minute chart

18 mag 2023

Trade attivo

GRM support now confirmed.

30 mag 2023

Nota

This idea was published on the very simple premise, support & resistance. If you look left you will see something very interesting, resistance has failed.

Now if you're a bull, do nothing. The next resistance is not until 4300.

If you're a bear, you're got to see a strong rejection of 4220. If not, cut your losses.

2 giu 2023

Nota

As alluded to in the last update 4300 shall be the next resistance.

Now if you're a bull, do nothing. If you're a bear then take advantage of any pull back from 4300. Past resistance must be tested as support.

12 giu 2023

Nota

Price action is now in a technical bull market.
Sorry bears, but the recession has been canceled for the moment.

15 giu 2023

Nota

A close above 4350 is a close above significant resistance. 4600 will be the next test.

16 giu 2023

Nota

Should have added to last update, a weekly close. A weekly close at or above 4350 will be fireworks. Surprised it is still sitting above 4400. Almost like all who had to sell has already sold and only short positions are left behind.

3 lug 2023

Nota

After the next resistance test, expect a pullback. An ugly one. Will share the details elsewhere.

18 lug 2023

Nota

Amusing all the short sellers calling for a 'collapse' rather than a correction. Why are folks always trying to ski uphill?

Wait until 4600.

8 ago 2023

Trade attivo

GRM support confirmed.
Be Long like Donkey Kong.

26 set 2023

Nota

Price action is approaching past resistance fast. Expect strong support from this level (main chart)

27 set 2023

Nota

Long from 4160 following the test of 4600. The support and resistance shown in the main idea will be tested this week at the rate price action is moving.

26 ott 2023

Trade attivo

Back at past resistance. Now testing for support. Am loving how technical the market is right now. 100% emotions in all directions with super clear TA. These are great times for traders and hell for investors. Take advantage.

10 nov 2023

Trade attivo

Past resistance confirms support.

1 dic 2023

Trade attivo

This is an important update.

On the daily chart below price action is now testing the all time high. The majority of retail traders remain "Short". They are calling for lower lows since 3600.

If you're a bear, you absolutely do not want to see a candle in the days ahead close above the orange line.

Similarly, if you're a bull... you don't want to see a strong rejection from the orange line.

Is there an indication which what will happen? Yes!

The "Why everyone is wrong" posts were started as an experiment to demonstrate why the herd always get it wrong. On the 2-week Put/Call ratio chart below there is a strong bearish divergence. A market melt up follows after confirmation of retail capitulation. At this time Short sellers are starting to capitulate. If this capitulation gathers momentum we're going to see the All Time Resistance break. A market melt up will follow.



Daily



2-week put/call ratio

26 feb 2024

Nota

Do you see the Stochastic RSI printing a lower low with a higher low in price action? This is called Hidden Bullish Divergence.

I've never known a more hated rally in the stock market.

Daily