History is Repeating Itself, Just Faster
A little brief before I start into this. I got started investing prior to the 1987 stock market crash and have always been amazed at the stock market for what it can do in a short period of time. People experience the market in so many different ways and I was fascinated by the mass-hysteria, psychology, economics and politics that surrounded the entire 1987 crash. I will say that since I experienced the crash of 1987 and there has still been nothing like it since. The flash crashes, the GFC and many other "sharp drops" are nothing like the speed and power and dislocation of the 1987 crash. So, with that in mind, here is a pattern to compare the 2020 crash with the 1987 crash in context to the massive upwave from 1974-2000 and 2007.
So, to begin, the 1987 crash lines up with the 2020 crash when you use the 1974 low as a comparison to the 2009 low. Then, as life has it, things happen a little faster so this pattern speeds up a little. You can copy it yourself, just then line up the 1987 crash to the 2020 crash.
And here we are, right on track. Post-1987 crash the world was a very scary place in so many ways. It was actually quite scary. The banking system was falling apart because of the 1986 tax law change which bankrupted the S&L's to the biggest bailout in US history.
George Bush Sr, was president and he was very similar to Biden, making mistakes domestically and internationally. He started up the Drug War which destroyed civil liberties in so many ways, much like the draconian lockdowns for Covid.
I did put this long term forecast on long term charts years back here at TradingView so you can review those. This would have been good to have right in front of us before. I missed that chance.
Reagan had one good term before he had trouble with Iran-Contra funding by selling drugs to finance wars in foreign countries. 1985-1987 was a bad time with trade frictions with Germany and Japan due to a strong dollar and major tax law changes which destroyed real estate, much like 2007 led to the 2009 GFC.
Then we had Bush follow Reagan and he wasn't effective as a leader. His famous "Read my lips, no new taxes" happened right before he raised taxes
Sadly, we then had Clinton come in and take over for 8 years and his first attack was on health care, which ended badly but moved him to be more centrist. Al Gore as VP helped to foster internet growth with tax advantages and boom, we had the technology boom leading into the bubble of 2000.
So, the future should write itself from here. Let's look ahead to 1992-2000 ahead with 1993-1994 being a sideways grind with a giant short squeeze in T-Bonds bankrupting Orange County and knocking Long Term Capital Mgmt (hedge fund) to its knees.
More correlations to follow and hopefully we have a new technology like the internet was at that time, to drive accelerating growth. It could be the electrification of vehicles and transportation for its massively more efficient energy consumption. Time will tell!
Enjoy.
Tim
November 8, 2023 11:17AM EST
So, to begin, the 1987 crash lines up with the 2020 crash when you use the 1974 low as a comparison to the 2009 low. Then, as life has it, things happen a little faster so this pattern speeds up a little. You can copy it yourself, just then line up the 1987 crash to the 2020 crash.
And here we are, right on track. Post-1987 crash the world was a very scary place in so many ways. It was actually quite scary. The banking system was falling apart because of the 1986 tax law change which bankrupted the S&L's to the biggest bailout in US history.
George Bush Sr, was president and he was very similar to Biden, making mistakes domestically and internationally. He started up the Drug War which destroyed civil liberties in so many ways, much like the draconian lockdowns for Covid.
I did put this long term forecast on long term charts years back here at TradingView so you can review those. This would have been good to have right in front of us before. I missed that chance.
Reagan had one good term before he had trouble with Iran-Contra funding by selling drugs to finance wars in foreign countries. 1985-1987 was a bad time with trade frictions with Germany and Japan due to a strong dollar and major tax law changes which destroyed real estate, much like 2007 led to the 2009 GFC.
Then we had Bush follow Reagan and he wasn't effective as a leader. His famous "Read my lips, no new taxes" happened right before he raised taxes
Sadly, we then had Clinton come in and take over for 8 years and his first attack was on health care, which ended badly but moved him to be more centrist. Al Gore as VP helped to foster internet growth with tax advantages and boom, we had the technology boom leading into the bubble of 2000.
So, the future should write itself from here. Let's look ahead to 1992-2000 ahead with 1993-1994 being a sideways grind with a giant short squeeze in T-Bonds bankrupting Orange County and knocking Long Term Capital Mgmt (hedge fund) to its knees.
More correlations to follow and hopefully we have a new technology like the internet was at that time, to drive accelerating growth. It could be the electrification of vehicles and transportation for its massively more efficient energy consumption. Time will tell!
Enjoy.
Tim
November 8, 2023 11:17AM EST
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