Let me start by saying that currently I'm unsure as to what the SPY will do over the coming days... However, given what we've seen recently, I think that there is a relatively high probability that we see a scenario like the one I'm proposing will take place.
A scenario where: 1) Smart money takes price lower to grab liquidity and fool novice traders 2) A corrective rally to the upside will follow, back to the top of the descending trend line near $420 3) A large sell-off will occur breaking the range lows
Lets see how this plays out over the coming day's / weeks. In the meantime we can use this to guide us into taking positions at the right levels if this type of scenario plays out.
For example; Since I'm anticipating a scenario like this to take place, I'm starting to plan to take longs and shorts at key S&R levels. 1) I will consider taking a long on SPY through averaging in at various levels as price travels down from $390 (Since I'm anticipating a rally soon) 2) I will likely enter a short on the SPY when it reaches key resistance at $411, $420 and $429 since I'm anticipating a large sell off after at some point.
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