Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for August 8, 2025

🔮 Nightly SPY / SPX Scenarios for August 8, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍

🧾 Tariff Shock → Day 2 Positioning
Markets are still digesting the new tariff regime (10%–41% on broad imports) and the proposed 100% levy on imported semiconductors with carve-outs for firms investing in U.S. production. Expect continued dispersion: U.S.-capex-heavy names bid; globally exposed hardware, autos, and consumer electronics face margin risk until rules are clarified.

💬 Policy Signaling Risk
Fed speakers are leaning cautious on growth and inflation pass-through from tariffs; Bostic flagged skepticism that tariff-driven price effects fade quickly. Translation: don’t count on a rapid dovish pivot because of tariffs alone.

⛽ Energy & Positioning Into the Weekend
Oil beta in focus: Baker Hughes U.S. rig count (1:00 pm ET) and CFTC COT (3:30 pm ET) hit this afternoon—both can nudge energy, USD, and risk appetite into the close.

📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊
📅 Friday, August 8, 2025

10:20 AM ET – St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem (remarks)
Market angle: watch for any tariff-inflation commentary and guidance on the path/timing of cuts.

1:00 PM ET – Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count
Reads on drilling activity; oil services beta and crude sentiment.

3:30 PM ET – CFTC Commitments of Traders (weekly)
Positioning update across futures/FX; risk heading into next week.

(No major Tier-1 U.S. macro prints scheduled today; next CPI is Tuesday, Aug 12.)
Bureau of Labor Statistics

⚠️ Disclaimer:
Educational info only, not financial advice. Do your own research.

📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #Fed #tariffs #chips #energy #rigcount #COT