People often assume that when you present a count as a primary count that you are making a prediction for the price, this is not the case you are simply presenting your highest probability scenario and the key to trading these scenarios is confirmation at the pivots. A trading plan comes into play following your technical analysis, you dont enter based on the analysis but on confirmation of analysis! There are a couple primary ways to count the impulse from the 2009 low. Red or Blue. The question of whether we have topped the cycle level is a difficult one where we currently stand, it appears we have an impluse off the low from December. Is that an A wave or a 1 wave? We can only know in retrospect, but we can pick a side and jump in at the proper point using good money management and always having a stop in place because we can never know for sure which direction we will head! The fundamentals seem bad for sure, but a blow off top 5th wave is the height of bad fundamentals(think 1920s) so it remains a serious possibility for another year or two of crazy bullish action in the US markets. However, there remains many more possibilities for the downside and only 1(that I see) for the upside so we must remain vigilant. The main short term 'safe' trade that is coming ahead is the C wave down once we top this A(blue pill)/1(red pill) wave up from the low in december. The strength of that move will be a tell, and how far we retrace. I think its a much lower probability to simply head down and break the lows from here though that also remains possible however improbable. Its a stock pickers market out there!
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A closer look
Commento:
The large ABC would be a primary wave 4 in the larger degree and could be counted WXY in that case, that would be the bullish count with a primary wave 5 to come
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That would also create a large inverted head and shoulders pattern to break for a 3rd wave, but we have to be worried about a more complex correction in play making that large flat I have in red with another ABC in play to be followed by a large impulse down.