SUI — Breakout or Breakdown? Long & Short Setups

SUI has been trapped in a trading range for the past 6 days, consolidating between key levels and building up liquidity for the next big move. When price goes quiet like this after an impulsive structure, it’s not time to trade—it’s time to observe, analyse, and prepare.

So, where’s the next high-probability setup?

Let’s break it down:

🔹 Elliott Wave Context

From my previous SUI analysis, I identified a completed 5-wave impulse structure. After such a move, a corrective ABC pattern is typically next.

SUI has been respecting technical levels with surprising accuracy throughout this cycle—especially Fibonacci levels and key horizontal zones.

📉 ABC Correction in Progress?

Wave A appears to be completed, and Wave B was rejected at the yearly level in perfect confluence with the golden pocket (0.618–0.666) retracement of Wave A. This strongly suggests that Wave C is now unfolding.

Using the 1:1 trend-based Fib extension, the projected Wave C target lands at:

➡️ $3.6413

Let’s dig deeper—does this level hold up under further scrutiny?

🔍 Multi-Layered Confluence at $3.56–$3.64

Here’s what aligns at this potential support zone:

• 1:1 Fib extension (Wave A = Wave C) → $3.6413
  
• 0.55 Fib retracement (from $3.1132 to $4.2967) → ~$3.64
  
• Volume Profile POC from prior range → ~$3.59
  
• 0.618 Fib retracement → $3.5653
  
• Weekly level → $3.5594
  
• 21-Day EMA → $3.5537
  
• 21-Day SMA → $3.6319
  
• 0.75 Fib Speed Fan (if hit on May 16) → aligns with zone
  

This stack of levels gives us a tightly packed, high-conviction support area between:

📍 $3.56 – $3.646
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🟢 Long Setup Idea:

• Entry Zone: Ladder entries between $3.56 and $3.75
  
• Stop-Loss: $3.4546 (beneath confluence zone)
  
• Take-Profit Target: $4.588 (0.786 Fib retracement + -0.236 Fib extension)
  
• R:R: ~5:1
  

🚫 Invalidation: If SUI reclaims the yearly level at $4.1152 before revisiting this support, the setup is invalidated.

🔴 Short Setup Idea:

If SUI pushes into the 0.786 Fib retracement at $4.588 and shows clear rejection (e.g., SFP, bearish engulfing, high-volume reversal), a short can be considered.

• Entry: On rejection at $4.588
  
• Stop-Loss: ~$4.714
  

Targets:

• TP1: $4.325 (recent highs)
  
• TP2: $4.1152 (yearly level)
  

🧠 Final Thoughts:

This is where trading becomes a game of patience. I’ve mapped both long and short setups based on structure, confluence, and price behaviour. Now it’s about waiting for price to come to your levels.

⏰ Alarms set.
📈 Let the chart do the work.

More updates to come as the range resolves. Stay sharp!

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