Gold Rejects Channel Highs — Retracement to $3,000 Before Higher

1 apr

Gold has printed another clean rejection at the upper boundary of a short-term ascending channel on the 6H timeframe. This latest rejection adds further validity to the structure, suggesting that we may now see a healthy technical pullback toward the equilibrium line of the channel — and potentially down to the lower support boundary near the $3,000 psychological level.

Technical Outlook:

• Another rejection from channel resistance confirms structural validity.
  
• 1:4 risk-to-reward short opportunity with clear invalidation and confluence.
  
• Targets:
   – TP1: $3,005 — channel midline + psychological level
   – TP2: $2,955 — previous swing high + dynamic quarterly support
  
• $3,000 psychological levels are often retested before continuation.
  

Fundamentals & Geopolitical Context (as of April 1, 2025):

1. Gold's Macro Bull Trend Remains Intact
   Despite this short-term setup, the broader macro backdrop continues to support gold:
    – Central banks accumulating gold amid global de-dollarization
    – Real yields remain negative across key regions
    – Oil trading above $100 fuels inflationary pressure
   
2. Geopolitical Flashpoints Supporting Volatility
    – Russia-Ukraine war shows no signs of easing
    – Middle East tensions rising (Israel–Hezbollah conflict)
    – Taiwan-U.S.-China escalation continues post-military exercises
   
3. Bitcoin Weakness = Gold Rotation Potential
    – BTC struggling at $70K, showing early signs of distribution
    – Miner pressure increasing ahead of halving
    – Targeting possible correction to $50K = capital rotation into gold
   

Conclusion:

• Technical rejection at resistance aligns with macro expectations of a short-term pullback.
  
• $3,000 key psychological level likely to be retested before further upside.
  
• Gold remains in a macro bull market; this move is likely corrective within a larger expansion leg.
  

Long Term Gold Bull Target $4,200:

Previous Long (Target hit and closed at $3,100):

Previous Intra Long (Target hit and closed at $3,100):

8 apr

Trade attivo

8 apr

Trade chiuso: obiettivo raggiunto

take profit 1 and 2 hit. Trade closed. Long entered.