USD/CAD. Downtrend expected to 1.3580 awaiting OPEC!

27 nov 2023

The USD/CAD exchange rate is recovering from recent losses recorded in the previous session. The USD/CAD pair is trading higher near 1.3660 during Monday's Asian session. The decline in crude oil prices is putting pressure on the Canadian Dollar (CAD). Currently, oil prices are under pressure as investors await the meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies (OPEC+), scheduled later this week, with the anticipation of an agreement on supply cuts until 2024. Retail sales in Canada (m/m) for September showed an improvement of 0.6% compared to the market expectation of a flat 0.0% and the previous reading of a 0.1% decline. Retail sales excluding autos remained consistent with a 0.2% increase compared to the 0.2% contraction. On the chart, on the daily timeframe, the price, after breaking below the bullish channel, is bouncing at the level of 1.3650, where we have a supply zone that could push the price first to the level of 1.3568 and then to the level of 1.3380. Wishing everyone a good trading day. Regards from Nicola.

28 nov 2023

Nota

USD/CAD extends its losses for the third consecutive session, trading lower around the psychological level of 1.3600 during Tuesday's Asian session. The rebound in crude oil prices and positive market sentiment provide some support for the Canadian Dollar (CAD). All eyes are on the upcoming crucial OPEC+ meeting, where there is widespread anticipation of a decision to deepen and extend cuts to oil production. The US Dollar faces downward pressure as traders factor in almost 85 basis points of cuts in 2024 by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Additionally, risk sentiment is reinforced by the latest report from the US Census Bureau, indicating a notable 5.6% drop in new home sales for October at 679,000, falling short of the market consensus of 725,000. Looking ahead, investors will likely focus on Canada's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Thursday, followed by the Net Change in Employment on Friday. Meanwhile, on Tuesday, attention is on US data, including the Housing Price Index and CB Consumer Confidence. Short-term expectations remain bearish.