Global debt hits record $307 trillion, debt ratios climb -IIF
Global debt reached a record high of $307 trillion in the second quarter, despite higher interest rates limiting bank lending. The United States and Japan were the main drivers of this increase, according to the Institute of International Finance (IIF). The IIF's report revealed that global debt in dollar terms rose by $10 trillion in the first half of 2023 and by $100 trillion over the past decade.
This surge in debt has pushed the global debt-to-GDP ratio to 336% for the second consecutive quarter. The report attributes this rise to a slowdown in economic growth and price increases, resulting in nominal GDP expanding at a slower pace than debt levels. Emre Tiftik, Director of Sustainability Research at the IIF, noted that the debt-to-GDP ratio is once again increasing after declining for seven consecutive quarters, mostly due to easing inflationary pressures. The IIF expects the debt-to-output ratio to surpass 337% by the end of the year, as wage and price pressures continue to moderate.
Experts and policymakers have been warning about the growing levels of debt, which can lead countries, corporations, and households to tighten their belts and reduce spending and investments, ultimately impacting economic growth and living standards.
More than 80% of the recent increase in debt came from developed countries, with the United States, Japan, Britain, and France experiencing the largest increases. Among emerging markets, China, India, and Brazil saw the highest rises in debt. This is a notable shift, as emerging markets are exhibiting a better trend compared to developed markets for the first time in a while, according to Todd Martinez, co-head of the Americas sovereign team at Fitch Ratings.
The report also highlighted that household debt-to-GDP in emerging markets is still higher than pre-COVID-19 levels, primarily driven by China, Korea, and Thailand. However, mature markets have seen the lowest household debt-to-GDP ratio in two decades during the first half of this year. Tiftik mentioned that consumer debt burdens appear manageable, and if inflationary pressures persist, the health of household balance sheets, particularly in the United States, will provide some protection against further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
While markets currently do not anticipate a near-term rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve, the target rate is expected to remain between 5.25% and 5.5% until at least May of next year. This sustained high rate in the U.S. could put pressure on emerging markets as investors prioritize the less risky developed world for investment.
This surge in debt has pushed the global debt-to-GDP ratio to 336% for the second consecutive quarter. The report attributes this rise to a slowdown in economic growth and price increases, resulting in nominal GDP expanding at a slower pace than debt levels. Emre Tiftik, Director of Sustainability Research at the IIF, noted that the debt-to-GDP ratio is once again increasing after declining for seven consecutive quarters, mostly due to easing inflationary pressures. The IIF expects the debt-to-output ratio to surpass 337% by the end of the year, as wage and price pressures continue to moderate.
Experts and policymakers have been warning about the growing levels of debt, which can lead countries, corporations, and households to tighten their belts and reduce spending and investments, ultimately impacting economic growth and living standards.
More than 80% of the recent increase in debt came from developed countries, with the United States, Japan, Britain, and France experiencing the largest increases. Among emerging markets, China, India, and Brazil saw the highest rises in debt. This is a notable shift, as emerging markets are exhibiting a better trend compared to developed markets for the first time in a while, according to Todd Martinez, co-head of the Americas sovereign team at Fitch Ratings.
The report also highlighted that household debt-to-GDP in emerging markets is still higher than pre-COVID-19 levels, primarily driven by China, Korea, and Thailand. However, mature markets have seen the lowest household debt-to-GDP ratio in two decades during the first half of this year. Tiftik mentioned that consumer debt burdens appear manageable, and if inflationary pressures persist, the health of household balance sheets, particularly in the United States, will provide some protection against further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
While markets currently do not anticipate a near-term rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve, the target rate is expected to remain between 5.25% and 5.5% until at least May of next year. This sustained high rate in the U.S. could put pressure on emerging markets as investors prioritize the less risky developed world for investment.
Commento:
The market will have many slowdowns