Symmetrical Triangle or Upward Channel?

12 apr 2019

While the inverse relationship between USDCAD and oil is strong, the long-term symmetrical triangle pattern that is forming with USDCAD suggests the dollar will move higher and in turn USDCAD. If the pattern is an upward channel, then dollar strength is stil the trend. We could also go into the fundamentals of oil, the S&P 500 and how each of these enjoys a strong correlation with USDCAD. To be brief, if US equities rise on fundamental demand and earnings and not just speculative appetite, so too will demand for oil and the price of oil. If oil rises then USDCAD will fall. However, I am not of the opinion that this scenario will play out suggesting the fundamentals could also be against USDCAD. As for the main oscillators, all give us uncertain or neutral signals.