Soft hands cleaned in USDCHF
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We have important updates coming overnight from the Trump administration leaving tariffs on the table. In reality, the US will not be collecting these additional duties for at least a few weeks meaning the window may provide an opening to reach an agreement in the interim. Sadly protectionism continues causing tensions to rise and keeps risk assets lower. If the ignorance continues it will lead to a decline in monetary velocity, in turn putting pressures on global growth and inflation.
There are a few things to watch in the immediate term here: Firstly China will be forced to retaliate quickly, they cannot match US tariffs so tracking their response closely. Secondly, whether Trump reinforces his threats to continue with preparations to impose tariffs. Although the risk has risen somewhat as this latest round of tariffs have technically started, I believe an agreement will still be reached and the US is not that likely to implement the next round of tariffs (only 25% odds). Meaning we are likely setting the lows in USDCHF.
Good luck all those adding USD exposure here.
There are a few things to watch in the immediate term here: Firstly China will be forced to retaliate quickly, they cannot match US tariffs so tracking their response closely. Secondly, whether Trump reinforces his threats to continue with preparations to impose tariffs. Although the risk has risen somewhat as this latest round of tariffs have technically started, I believe an agreement will still be reached and the US is not that likely to implement the next round of tariffs (only 25% odds). Meaning we are likely setting the lows in USDCHF.
Good luck all those adding USD exposure here.
Nota
A good time for a quick hourly chart update here after the opening range: Nota
We got the 'confirmed' break ...
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