What is the $VIX showing us?

28 giu 2023

Good Morning

SMALL THREAD

While we did call the NDX weakness & top, at that time we didn't think it would be as bad as it got, at least I didn't.

Last year we really thought VIX would break out & the markets would collapse. Our original expectations didn't pan out but we, mostly I, changed as more data came in.

We called a bunch of bounces & tops, ALL DOCUMENTED, BUT our best call was becoming BULLISH in late September on DJI & Bullish on NDX in October.

Since then we've been cautious Bull with a few bearish calls but ultimately, we were/are still bullish.

During this time the VIX was forming a HUGE Symmetrical Triangle that we posted on countless times.

We were biased and thought the VIX would break out and #stocks would be cremated. Obviously, were bullish after Sept 2022 but we thought there would be an eventual harsh crash that made 2022 like a walk in the park.

When #VIX broke down we were SHOCKED! That's when we knew that the can was being kicked further down the road. There's a lot more at play that we've been discussing on occasion.

SPX has been on a tear but it is currently in a consolidation phase as seen on a daily chart. However, as you can see, RSI can remain overbought on a weekly for long periods of time.

VIX is slowly closing in on a major support level. While it can break through, IMO, don't think it will do it the 1st time.

#VIX will likely get a nice bounce. This bounce will likely be strong and could mean possible weakness for #stocks, soon.