Soybeans Loading a Bounce? Demand Zone + COT

l’altro ieri

1. Price Action & Technical Structure
Price has bounced off a strong daily demand zone (1011–969).
Today’s daily candle shows a clear rejection wick from the low, and RSI is signaling a potential reversal.
The market is trading inside a falling channel, currently near the lower boundary — setting up a possible breakout move.
Technical Targets:
• First upside target: 1039–1049
Invalidation: daily close below 990, which would confirm structural breakdown.

2. COT Report – Soybeans Futures (as of July 9, 2025)
• Non-Commercials:
 +11,539 spreads | +7,017 shorts | –7,520 longs → Slight bearish pressure, though spreads suggest growing speculative complexity.
• Commercials:
 +7,876 longs | –9,084 shorts → Moderate commercial bullish bias.
• Open Interest:
 +8,076 contracts → Market activity increasing.
Overall COT positioning is neutral to slightly bullish, with growing signs of accumulation around the 1000 level.

3. Seasonality – MarketBulls
Historically, July is one of the weakest months for Soybeans:
• –44.82 (20Y avg)
• –36.86 (15Y avg)
• –34.74 (10Y avg)
However, early August shows signs of seasonal recovery, and price action is already diverging from typical seasonal behavior.

This makes a deeper breakdown less likely — we could be nearing the end of the seasonal weakness.

Operational Takeaway
Current Bias: Neutral-to-Bullish
Confluence of signals supports the idea of a technical rebound:
✅ Bullish reaction candle in demand
✅ Fibonacci support + lower trendline touch
✅ COT data stabilizing with rising open interest
✅ Seasonal weakness possibly exhausted

17 ore fa

Trade chiuso manualmente

I entered this trade without following my plan — it was a small mistake. Focus is important. I’ve closed the trade and I’m ready for the next week.