Evolving RThe "Evolving R" script is a script that allows to calculate a dynamic reward-to-risk ratio at any given point of time during the trade. Its fundamentals are based on Tom Dante's concept of an evolving reward-to-risk. The script requires a user to input their preferred stop loss price and the target price for a specific asset, and calculates the ratio between two differences: (a) the absolute difference between the target price and the current price and (b) the absolute difference between the stop loss price and the current price.
The output of the script displays the ratio discussed as a value called "Evolving R" in the table. In order to use it successfully, the user of the script has to input:
(a) Stop loss price for the asset
(b) Target price for the asset
Theoretically, as long as the evolving R value holds above or equal to 0.25, the trade is worth holding. However, if the evolving R value drops below 0.25, the table turns red and signifies that such a trade possesses more risk than there is a reward remaining: this alerts the user to possibly take profits prematurely without risking their unrealized gains for a minor amount of additional gain.
The graphics of the script are represented by green and red areas: the green area indicates the area between the current price and the target price, while the red area shows the distance between the current price and the stop loss price. This visual representation allows users to understand the relative reward-to-risk ratio graphically in addition to the given evolving R value output.
The script is used for any type of trading: whether trend-trading or in a ranging market, it doesn't suggest a user which market conditions they should use.
Forecasting
STIC bullish and bearish hunter with FVGSmart Trading and Investment Companion (STIC) is a sophisticated tool designed to identify and visualize inducement, market structure, market trends, track liquidity, and project and forecast price action for all applicable assets. it has been tested to work on all timeframes and has been traded on stock, forex, and crypto assets.
This script is an upgraded version of previous STIC indicator, which you can use in addition to it or separately as you deem fit
Traders/ investor that are familiar with market structure, inducement, candlestick psychology, trend-following indicatorsand Fair Value Gap FVG will find it easy to adopt this trading and investment companion. As stated below, this is how it works.
Features and how to use
1st of all, after adding the indicator to yoursuperchart, you want to endusre to set your to so as to enable you see the text labeling clearly. to do that, after adding the indicator to your chart, right click it on the list, you will se the Visual order option.
Special Extreme Alert!
By analyzing the trends and dimensions, we are able to predict market extremes conditions, especially in pump and dump scenarios. (the bullish or bearish P/D extreme alerts).
Market flip arrow
The arrows trigger to indicate when the market flips to bullish (green) or bearish (red) conditions. note that this arrow is just a market flip confirmation and it it triggered by market trends, it does not come one time and sometimes later after market trigger conditions had been met.
circled in white.
Buy or sell potential {The tiny yelow(sell) and blue(buy) triangle}
By analyzing market extreme conditions, market sentiment, and liquidity, the buy/sell potential alert trigger is able to determine the state of the market, This can and should be used in combination with the market flip line (MFL) [the yellow line from , market flip trigger (MFT) (purple line), and market support/resistance line (MSR)(blue line) .
Market flip Line (Blue line) (MFL): the MFL is useful to also understand the market phase; a candle close above the MFL is bullish, while a candle close Below, the MFL is bearish. You are, however, expected to experience market retests and rejections coupled with support and resistance to follow through with the predicted direction. Patience is a valuable virtue in trading.
Extended sell or buy hunt (Red and Green Triangle)
this is real-time triangles indicator just like every other indicator on theis chart that indicates the market direction labeled with buy and sell. Note that the market-extended extreme can occur multiple times in the same direction. Hence, we'll advise having multiple trade entries.
The flip support line
Market Flip Trigger Line (MFTL) (Magenta): When the market crosses and closes below or above the Market Flip Trigger Line, you should wait for a confirmation. a confirmation is usually a retest or rejection of the line. A candle close and reject indicates the market as flip direction and it is going for a correction or major reversal. it is applicable on all timeframe.
As mentioned earlier, if you understand market structure and sentiment, using the uFVG, iFVG, upLQTY, downLQTY and BOS will be easy. however, this is how it works, you may need tohave and expanded readbout market structure for additional knowledge.
upLQTY (Bullish liquidity inducement)
The indicator appear at the close and confirmation on the 3rd candle and it is extended to only appear on 200 bars applicable on all timeframes.
This is a bullish sentiment and liquidty inducement order block that occurs, leading to the break of trend structure and change of character. Meaning the market sentiment as change which is backed up by liquidity in that region, which mostly gets filled, especially on lower timeframes before the price action continues. If price revese breaks and hold above this region, it invalidates the order block. This will always appear when there is a confirmed change of character CHoCH to the bullish side.
downLQTY (Bearish liquidity inducement) The indicator appear at the close and confirmation on the 3rd candle and it is extended to only appear on 200 bars applicable on all timeframes. It is and inverse of the upLQTY.
like order block, these are supply and demand zones that has the potential to change the direction of a trade. This is a bearish order block that occurs, leading to the break of structure and change of character. Meaning there is bearish liquidity yet to be accounted for in the region, which mostly gets filled, especially on lower timeframes before the price action continues. If broken, it invalidates the order block. This will always appear when there is a confirmed change of character from CHoCH to the bearish side.
Fair Value Gap
From general knowledge, FVG also know as Fair value gaps are inbalnace created by a 3 candlestick pattern where the top of the bottom candles doesn't cross the bottom of the top candle. like order block, these are supply and demand zones that has the potential to change the direction of a trade. This mostly indicate the presense of big plays in the market. for STIC indicator, FVG are labeled as listed below;
UFVG, also FVGup, {Colour green box} = bullish imbalance fair value gap
IFVG, aka FVGdown, {Red box} = bearish imbalance fair value gap
OIFVG, {Yellow box, no label} = other imbalances fair value gab
You should not that FG has upper, lower and middle band, any of the this area can be induced and filled by price.
Alert Conditions!
Buy alert conditions
- Any bullish buy alert
- Bullish hunt
- Re-entry Buy
- Sharp Market Sell rejection
- Buy potential
- upLQTY
Long position Exit conditions
- ExtremeB
- Profit
- Sell hunt
The Entry, exit and trail profit alert trigger should be used as position exit conditions either for a Long (Buy) or Short (Sell) situation and should be set as OPB (Once Per Bar). Using it as entry for exit or vice versa as shown not to be very profitable. hence the need to combine with other order entry alerts like the Any bullish or Bearish alerts
Sell alert conditions ( NOTE: All Sell alert are not yet included in this current version as this is targeted towards bullrun.)
- Sell potential
- Sell triangle (Sell hunt)
- downLQTY
and any trail profit alert, this alert put into consideration all the conditions required to trail profit.
Risk management advice
Patience and a good risk management strategy are required to be profitable trader using this tool. You need to ensure not to overleverage, and you should have multiple entries in case the buy coditions/alert shows again below the previous buy alert before a sell condition/alert occurs.
Spot Martingale KuCoin - The Quant ScienceINTRODUCTION
Backtesting software of the Spot Martingale algorithm offered by the KuCoin exchange.
This script replicates the logic used by the KuCoin bot and is useful for analyzing strategy on any cryptocurrency historical series.
It's not intended as an automatic trading algorithm and does not offer the possibility of automatic order execution.
The trader will use this software exclusively to research the best parameters with which to work on KuCoin.
LOGIC OF EXECUTION
The execution of orders is composed as follows:
1) Start Martingale: initial order
2) Martingale-Number: orders following Start Martingale
(A) The software is designed and developed to replicate trading without taking into account technical indicators or particular market conditions. The Initial Order (Start Martingale) will be executed immediately the close of the previous Martingale when the balance of market orders is zero. It will use the capital set in the Properties section for the initial order.
(B) After the first order, the software will open new orders as the price decreases. For orders following Start Martingale, the initial capital, multiplier, and number of orders in the exponential growth context are considered. The multiplier is the factor that determines the proportional increase in capital with each new order. The number of orders, indicates how many times the multiplier is applied to increase the investment.
Example
To find out the capital used in Martingale order number 5, with a Multiple For Position Increase equal to 2 and a starting capital of $100, the formula will be as follows:
Martingale Order = ($100 * (2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2)) = $100 * 32 = $3.200
(C) A multiplier is used for each new order that will increase the quantity purchased.
(D) All previously open orders are closed once the take profit is reached.
USER MANUAL
The user interface consists of two main sections:
1. Settings
Percentage Drop for Position Increase (0.1-15%) : percentage distance between Martingale orders. For example, if you set 5% each new order will be opened after a 5% price decrease from the previous one.
Max Position Increases (1-15) : number of Martingale orders to be executed after Start Martingale. For example, if you set 10, up to10 orders will be opened after Start Martingale.
Multiple For Position Increase (1-2x) : capital multiplier. For example, if you set 2 each for each new order, the capital involved will be doubled, order by order.
Take Profit Percentage (0.5-1000%) : percentage take profit, calculated on the average entry price.
2. Date Range Backtesting
The Date Range Backtesting section adjusts the analysis period. The user can easily adjust the UI parameters, and automatically the software will update the data.
LIMITATIONS OF THE MODEL
Although the Martingale model is widely used in position management, even this model has limitations and is subject to real risks during particular market conditions. Knowing these conditions will help you understand which asset is best to use the strategy on.
The main risks in adopting this automatic strategy are 2:
1) The price falls below our last order.
It happens during periods of strong bear-market in which the price collapses abruptly without experiencing any pullback. In this case the algorithm will enter a drawdown phase and the strategy will become a loser. The trader will then have to consider whether to wait for a price recovery or to incur a loss by manually closing the algorithm.
2) The price increases quickly.
It happens during periods of strong bull-market in which the price rises abruptly without experiencing any pullback. In this case the algorithm will not optimize order execution, working only with Start Martingale in the vast majority of trades. Given the exponential nature of the investment, the algorithm will in this case generate a profit that is always less than that of the reference market.
The best market conditions to use this strategy are characterized by high volatility such as correction phases during a bull run and/or markets that exhibit sideways price trends (such as areas of accumulation or congestion where price will generate many false signals).
FEATURES
This script was developed by including features to optimize the user experience.
Includes a dashboard at launch that allows the user to intuitively enter backtesting parameters.
Includes graphical indicator that helps the user analyze the behavior of the strategy.
Includes a date period backtesting feature that allows the user to adjust and choose custom historical periods.
DISCLAIMER
This script was released using parameters researched solely for the BTC/USDT pair, 4H timeframe, traded on the KuCoin Exchange (2017-present). Do not consider this combination of parameters as universal and usable on all assets and timeframes.
[KVA] ICT Dealing rangesNaive aproach of Dynamic Detection of Dealing Ranges:
The script dynamically identifies dealing ranges based on sequences of upward or downward price movements. It uses arrays to track the highest highs and lowest lows after detecting two consecutive up or down bars, a fundamental step towards understanding market structure and potential shifts in momentum.
ICT Concept: Order Blocks & Fair Value Gaps. This aspect can be linked to the identification of order blocks (bullish or bearish) and fair value gaps. Order blocks are essentially the last bearish or bullish candle before a significant price move, which this script could approximate by identifying the highs and lows of potential reversal zones.
Red and Green Ranges for Bullish and Bearish Movements:
The script separates these movements into red (bearish) and green (bullish) ranges, effectively categorizing potential areas of selling and buying pressure.
ICT Concept: Liquidity Pools. Red ranges could be indicative of areas where selling might occur, potentially leading to liquidity pools below these ranges. Conversely, green ranges might indicate potential buying pressure, with liquidity pools above. These areas are critical for ICT traders, as they often represent zones where price may return to "hunt" for liquidity.
Horizontal Lines for High and Low Points:
The indicator draws horizontal lines at the high and low points of these ranges, offering visual cues for significant levels.
ICT Concept: Breaker Blocks & Mitigation Sequences. The high and low points of these ranges can be seen as potential breaker blocks or areas for future mitigation sequences. In ICT terms, breaker blocks are areas where institutional orders have overwhelmed retail stop clusters, creating potential entry points for trend continuation or reversal. The high and low points marked by the indicator could serve as references for these sequences, where price might return to retest these levels.
Customizability and Historical Depth:
With inputs like rangePlot and maxBarsBack, the indicator allows for customization of the number of ranges to display and how far back in the chart history it looks to identify these ranges. This flexibility is crucial for tailoring the analysis to different trading strategies and timeframes.
ICT Concept: Market Structure Analysis. The ability to adjust the depth and number of ranges plotted caters to a detailed market structure analysis, an essential component of ICT methodology. Traders can adjust these parameters to better understand the distribution of buying and selling pressure over time and how actions have shaped price movements.
ATR Price Targets w/POC
ATR Price Targets with Point of Control (POC):
This script is designed to help traders identify key price target levels based on configurable multipliers of the the Average True Range (ATR) and the volume based Point of Control (POC). It is intended for intraday traders looking to capture significant price movements.
Features:
ATR Price Targets: The script calculates three levels of price targets above and below the first bar of the day, based on the ATR of the last 22 days (assuming 5-minute candles). These targets are adjustable through the settings, allowing traders to set their own ATR multipliers.
Point of Control (POC): The POC is determined as the price level of the highest volume bar since the start time, providing an indication of the most traded price within the specified period.
Customizable Start Time: Traders can set their desired start time for the calculation of price targets and POC, allowing for flexibility in aligning the indicator with their trading strategy.
Plot Lines: The ATR price targets are plotted as lines for easy visualization on the chart.
Usage:
The ATR price targets can be used as potential take-profit or stop-loss levels.
The POC can serve as a key level for assessing market sentiment and potential reversals.
Traders can adjust the ATR multipliers and start time based on their specific trading style and market conditions.
Settings:
ATR Price Targets 1, 2, 3: Adjust the multipliers for the ATR price targets. By default, these are set to 1*ATR for T1+/T1-, 3*ATR for T2+/T2- and ATR*6 for T3+/T3-. Adjust with caution as the price targets found in defaults have proven to be more accurate over intraday cycles for volatile stocks.
Start Hour & Start Minute: Set the starting hour and minute for the calculations. By default, these are set to the opening 5 minute intraday bar, but can also be set to the opening bar of pre-market hours.
WinningWave - Devrim - By [Sercan.B]WinningWave - Devrim is an extremely advanced technical analysis tool designed to understand fluctuations in the financial markets and provide investors with reliable buying and selling decisions based on this information. This tool integrates various analysis methods to detect market trends and potential reversal points.
Fundamentally, WinningWave - Devrim deeply examines market movements using ZigZag analyses, harmonic pattern recognition, and various indicators such as RSI. ZigZag analyses filter out the noise of short-term price movements, offering a cleaner view of market trends and identifying significant peaks and troughs. The harmonic pattern recognition feature utilizes the recurring nature of specific price patterns to indicate potential buying and selling areas. These patterns provide clues about the possible future directions of price movements.
The strength of WinningWave - Devrim lies not only in identifying specific patterns and trends but also in presenting this information in a way that can be integrated into investors' strategies. Investors can clearly see when to enter or exit the market, thanks to the visual signals and patterns provided by the indicator.
Moreover, WinningWave - Devrim offers a set of customizable settings according to user preferences. This feature is critical for adapting to different market conditions and investment strategies. For example, an investor can adjust the ATR period, which measures volatility, to receive the most suitable signals for the current market condition.
Thanks to the specially tailored artificial intelligence coding for pattern finding for each time period, it alerts the user as a formation by analyzing the possible start and end areas of Trends specific to time periods. Additionally, a buy and sell signal compatible with harmonic pattern-based trend scanning technique accompanies harmonic formations. The buy or sell signal that comes immediately after the formation is created provides detailed awareness for the user to enter or exit the game.
The option to set separate alerts for the formation of each pattern and for every buy-sell signal frees users from the necessity of monitoring the screen constantly.
Lastly, WinningWave - Devrim offers investors a broad perspective for market analysis. With this tool, investors can identify market trends, potential reversal points, and buying and selling opportunities, optimize risk management, and apply their investment strategies more consciously.
Note: In line with my principle of personal neutrality, the description and usage of the indicator have been written by analyzing the codes through ChatGPT.
- Adhering to buy and sell signals is crucial for securing transactions at points where harmonic patterns form. This importance stems from the fact that the legs of harmonic formations can extend according to Fibonacci values. In other words, a harmonic formation signal does not have to occur immediately when it is received. Therefore, buy and sell signal labels, transformed into signals with settings compatible with formations and based on ATR, aim to minimize the margin of error in transactions.
- Harmonic formations are an analysis method in financial markets that is based on specific mathematical properties and ratios of price movements. These formations rely on mathematical concepts such as the Fibonacci number sequence and are used to predict how price movements may behave in the future. The idea behind harmonic formations is that certain patterns tend to repeat in market price movements. These patterns are used to identify potential buying and selling points.
- Paintings are representative. It was drawn for those who cannot see that zigzag lines and formation labels create mathematics and a formation.
- The Super Trend ATR (Average True Range) is a popular trend-following indicator used in financial markets. This indicator creates a line that moves above or below the price as a function of the Average True Range (ATR), indicating the direction of the trend. The Super Trend is used both to determine the direction of the trend and to identify potential entry and exit points.
The Super Trend indicator is based on two main parameters: a period of the ATR and a multiplier. The indicator measures the volatility of price movements over the specified ATR period and applies a multiplier based on this volatility. Then, this calculated value is placed above or below the price to determine the direction of the trend. If the price is above the line, the market is considered to be in an uptrend, and if below, in a downtrend.
Buy and Sell signals were written in the most compatible way with harmonic formations for the Super Trend ATR and adjusted according to the most accurate areas of Fibonacci values. Thus, if the signal following the formation of harmonic formations is entering an uptrend or downtrend, it helps us find the most suitable entry and exit points.
- Zigzag Indicator
The Zigzag indicator is a tool that filters out minor price fluctuations and noise to better see the direction of price movements. This indicator ignores price movements until they reach a specified percentage change and only connects the movements that exceed this change with a line. As a result, investors can more easily identify the main trends and potential reversal points in the market.
The Zigzag indicator is particularly effective in identifying the maximum and minimum points in the market and when used in conjunction with other technical analysis tools like Fibonacci retracement.
Pivot Points
Pivot points are a type of indicator used to determine the general trend of the market. This calculation is made using the high, low, and closing prices of the previous period. The basic pivot point is calculated by taking the average of these three values. Around this basic pivot point, resistance and support levels are also calculated. Resistance levels represent potential obstacles that the price may encounter moving upwards, while support levels represent potential "floor" areas when the price is moving downwards.
Pivot points are especially useful for daily trading activities because traders can use these points to predict the likely direction of market movements within the day. These points can also serve as potential buying and selling areas.
Both indicators assist investors and traders in analyzing market movements and making decisions, but it is always recommended to use them in conjunction with other analysis methods and consider market conditions.
Buffett IndicatorThis is an open-source version of the Buffett indicator. The old version was code-protected and broken, so I created another version.
It's computed simply as the entire SPX 500 capitalization divided by the US GDP. Since TradingView does not have data for the SPX 500 capitalization, I used quarterly values of SPX devisors as a proxy.
I tried to create another version of the Buffett indicator for other countries/indexes, but I can't find the data. If you can help me find data for index divisors, I can add more choices to this indicator.
It's interesting to see how this indicator's behavior has changed in the last few years. Levels that looked crazy are not so crazy anymore.
Disclaimer
Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results.
Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, the strategy may no longer perform as well as in historical backtesting.
This post and the script don’t provide any financial advice.
Murrey Math
The Murrey Math indicator is a set of horizontal price levels, calculated from an algorithm developed by stock trader T.J. Murray.
The main concept behind Murrey Math is that prices tend to react and rotate at specific price levels. These levels are calculated by dividing the price range into fixed segments called "ranges", usually using a number of 8, 16, 32, 64, 128 or 256.
Murrey Math levels are calculated as follows:
1. A particular price range is taken, for example, 128.
2. Divide the current price by the range (128 in this example).
3. The result is rounded to the nearest whole number.
4. Multiply that whole number by the original range (128).
This results in the Murrey Math level closest to the current price. More Murrey levels are calculated and drawn by adding and subtracting multiples of the range to the initially calculated level.
Traders use Murrey Math levels as areas of possible support and resistance as it is believed that prices tend to react and pivot at these levels. They are also used to identify price patterns and possible entry and exit points in trading.
The Murrey Math indicator itself simply calculates and draws these horizontal levels on the price chart, allowing traders to easily visualize them and use them in their technical analysis.
HOW TO USE THIS INDICATOR?
To use the Murrey Math indicator effectively, here are some tips:
1. Choose the appropriate Murrey Math range : The Murrey Math range input (128 by default in the provided code) determines the spacing between the levels. Common ranges used are 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, and 256. A smaller range will give you more levels, while a larger range will give you fewer levels. Choose a range that suits the volatility and trading timeframe you're working with.
2. Identify potential support and resistance levels: The horizontal lines drawn by the indicator represent potential support and resistance levels based on the Murrey Math calculation. Prices often react or reverse at these levels, so they can be used to spot areas of interest for entries and exits.
3. Look for price reactions at the levels: Watch for price action like rejections, bounces, or breakouts at the Murrey Math levels. These reactions can signal potential trend continuation or reversal setups.
4. Trail stop-loss orders: You can place stop-loss orders just below/above the nearest Murrey Math level to manage risk if the price moves against your trade.
5. Set targets at future levels: Project potential profit targets by looking at upcoming Murrey Math levels in the direction of the trend.
7. Adjust range as needed: If prices are consistently breaking through levels without reacting, try adjusting the range input to a different value to see if it provides better levels.
In which asset can this indicator perform better?
The Murrey Math indicator can potentially perform well on any liquid financial asset that exhibits some degree of mean-reversion or trading range behavior. However, it may be more suitable for certain asset classes or trading timeframes than others.
Here are some assets and scenarios where the Murrey Math indicator can potentially perform better:
1. Forex Markets: The foreign exchange market is known for its ranging and mean-reverting nature, especially on higher timeframes like the daily or weekly charts. The Murrey Math levels can help identify potential support and resistance levels within these trading ranges.
2. Futures Markets: Futures contracts, such as those for commodities (e.g., crude oil, gold, etc.) or equity indices, often exhibit trading ranges and mean-reversion trends. The Murrey Math indicator can be useful in identifying potential turning points within these ranges.
3. Stocks with Range-bound Behavior: Some stocks, particularly those of large-cap companies, can trade within well-defined ranges for extended periods. The Murrey Math levels can help identify the boundaries of these ranges and potential reversal points.
4. I ntraday Trading: The Murrey Math indicator may be more effective on lower timeframes (e.g., 1-hour, 30-minute, 15-minute) for intraday trading, as prices tend to respect support and resistance levels more closely within shorter time periods.
5. Trending Markets: While the Murrey Math indicator is primarily designed for range-bound markets, it can also be used in trending markets to identify potential pullback or continuation levels.
Momentum Ghost Machine [ChartPrime]Momentum Ghost Machine (ChartPrime) is designed to be the next generation in momentum/rate of change analysis. This indicator utilizes the properties of one of our favorite filters to create a more accurate and stable momentum oscillator by using a high quality filtered delayed signal to do the momentum comparison.
Traditional momentum/roc uses the raw price data to compare current price to previous price to generate a directional oscillator. This leaves the oscillator prone to false readings and noisy outputs that leave traders unsure of the real likelihood of a future movement. One way to mitigate this issue would be to use some sort of moving average. Unfortunately, this can only go so far because simple moving average algorithms result in a poor reconstruction of the actual shape of the underlying signal.
The windowed sinc low pass filter is a linear phase filter, meaning that it doesn't change the shape or size of the original signal when applied. This results in a faithful reconstruction of the original signal, but without the "high frequency noise". Just like any filter, the process of applying it requires that we have "future" samples resulting in a time delay for real time applications. Fortunately this is a great thing in the context of a momentum oscillator because we need some representation of past price data to compare the current price data to. By using an ideal low pass filter to generate this delayed signal we can super charge the momentum oscillator and fix the majority of issues its predecessors had.
This indicator has a few extra features that other momentum/roc indicators dont have. One major yet simple improvement is the inclusion of a moving average to help gauge the rate of change of this indicator. Since we included a moving average, we thought it would only be appropriate to add a histogram to help visualize the relationship between the signal and its average. To go further with this we have also included linear extrapolation to further help you predict the momentum and direction of this oscillator. Included with this extrapolation we have also added the histogram in the extrapolation to further enhance its visual interpretation. Finally, the inclusion of a candle coloring feature really drives how the utility of the Momentum Machine .
There are three distinct options when using the candle coloring feature: Direct, MA, and Both. With direct the candles will be colored based on the indicators direction and polarity. When it is above zero and moving up, it displays a green color. When it is above zero and moving down it will display a light green color. Conversely, when the indicator is below zero and moving down it displays a red color, and when it it moving up and below zero it will display a light red color. MA coloring will color the candles just like a MACD. If the signal is above its MA and moving up it will display a green color, and when it is above its MA and moving down it will display a light green color.
When the signal is below its MA and moving down it will display a red color, and when its below its ma and moving up it will display a light red color. Both combines the two into a single color scheme providing you with the best of both worlds. If the indicator is above zero it will display the MA colors with a slight twist. When the indicator is moving down and is below its MA it will display a lighter color than before, and when it is below zero and is above its MA it will display a darker color color.
Length of 50 with a smoothing of 100
Length of 50 with a smoothing of 25
By default, the indicator is set to a momentum length of 50, with a post smoothing of 2. We have chosen the longer period for the momentum length to highlight the performance of this indicator compared to its ancestors. A major point to consider with this indicator is that you can only achieve so much smoothing for a chosen delay. This is because more data is required to produce a smoother signal at a specified length. Once you have selected your desired momentum length you can then select your desired momentum smoothing . This is made possible by the use of the windowed sinc low pass algorithm because it includes a frequency cutoff argument. This means that you can have as little or as much smoothing as you please without impacting the period of the indicator. In the provided examples above this paragraph is a visual representation of what is going on under the hood of this indicator. The blue line is the filtered signal being compared to the current closing price. As you can see, the filtered signal is very smooth and accurately represents the underlying price action without noise.
We hope that users can find the same utility as we did in this indicator and that it levels up your analysis utilizing the momentum oscillator or rate of change.
Enjoy
Price Action Fractal Forecasts [AlgoAlpha]🔮 Price Action Fractal Forecasts - Unleash the Power of Historical Patterns! 🌌✨
Dive into the future with AlgoAlpha's Price Action Fractal Forecasts ! This innovative indicator utilizes the mesmerizing complexity of fractals to predict future price movements, offering traders a unique edge in the market. By analyzing historical price action and identifying repeating patterns, this tool forecasts future price trends, providing visually engaging and actionable insights.
Key Features:
🔄 Flexible Data Series Selection: Choose your preferred data series for precise analysis.
🕰 Flexible Training and Reference Data Windows: Customize the length of training data and reference periods to match your trading style.
📈 Custom Forecast Length: Adjust the forecast horizon to suit your strategic objectives.
🌈 Customizable Visual Elements: Tailor the colors of forecast deviation cones, data reference areas, and more for optimal chart readability.
🔄 Anticipatory and Repetitive Forecast Modes: Select between anticipating future trends or identifying repetitive patterns for forecasts.
🔎 Enhanced Similarity Search: Leverages correlation metrics to find the most similar historical data segments.
📊 Forecast Deviation Cone: Visualize potential price range deviations with adjustable multipliers.
🚀 Quick Guide to Maximizing Your Trading with Price Action Fractal Forecasts:
🛠 Add the Indicator: Search for "Price Action Fractal Forecasts" in TradingView's Indicators & Strategies. Customize settings according to your trading strategy.
📊 Strategic Forecasting: Monitor the forecast deviation cone and forecast directional changes for insights into potential future price movements.
🔔 Alerts for Swift Action: Set up notifications based on forecast changes to stay ahead of market movements without constant monitoring.
Behind the Magic: How It Works
The core of the Price Action Fractal Forecasts lies in its ability to compare current market behavior with historical data to unearth similar patterns. It first establishes a training data window to analyze historical prices. Within this window, it then defines a reference length to identify the most recent price action that will serve as the basis for comparison. The indicator searches through the historical data within the training window to find segments that closely match the recent price action in the reference period.
Depending on whether you choose the anticipatory or repetitive forecast mode, the indicator either looks ahead to predict future prices based on past outcomes following similar patterns or focuses on the repeating patterns within the reference period itself for forecasts. The forecast's direction can be configured to reflect the mean average of forecasted prices or the end-point relative to the start-point of the forecast, offering flexibility in how forecasts are interpreted.
To enhance the comprehensiveness and visualization, the indicator features a forecast deviation cone. This cone represents the potential range of price movements, providing a visual cue for volatility and uncertainty in the forecasted prices. The intensity of this cone can be adjusted to suit individual preferences, offering a visual guide to the level of risk and uncertainty associated with the forecasted price path.
Embrace the fractal magic of markets with AlgoAlpha's Price Action Fractal Forecasts and transform your trading today! 🌟🚀
Daily Close GAP Detector [Yosiet]User Manual for "Daily Close GAP Detector "
Overview
This script is designed to help traders identify and react to significant gaps in daily market prices. It plots daily open and close prices and highlights significant gaps with a cross. The script is particularly useful for identifying potential breakouts or reversals based on these gaps.
Configuration
GAP Close Threshold: This input allows you to set a threshold for the gap size that you consider significant. The default value is 0.001.
Timeframe Seeker: This input lets you choose the timeframe for the gap detection. The default is 'D' for daily.
Features
Daily Open and Close Lines: The script plots daily open and close prices. If the close price is lower than the open price, the line is colored red; otherwise, it's green.
Gap Detection: It calculates the difference between the current day's close and the previous day's close, both adjusted for the selected timeframe. If this difference exceeds the threshold, it's considered a significant gap.
Significant Gap Indicator: A cross is plotted on the chart to indicate significant gaps. The color of the cross indicates whether the gap is a short or long gap: red for short gaps and green for long gaps.
Alert Conditions: The script sets up alert conditions for short and long gap breakouts. You can customize the alert messages to include details like the ticker symbol, interval, price, and exchange.
How to Use
Add the Script to Your Chart: Copy the script into the Pine Script editor on TradingView and add it to your chart.
Configure Inputs: Adjust the "GAP Close Threshold" and "Timeframe Seeker" inputs as needed.
Review the Chart: The script will overlay daily open and close prices on your chart, along with crosses indicating significant gaps.
Set Alerts: Use the script's alert conditions to set up alerts for short and long gap breakouts. You can customize the alert messages to suit your trading strategy.
Extending the Code
To extend this script, you can modify the gap detection logic, add more indicators, or integrate it with other scripts for a more comprehensive trading strategy. Remember to test any changes thoroughly before using them in live trading.
Pi Cycle Indicator Low and High
The Pi Cycle Indicator is a technical analysis tool used in finance, particularly within cryptocurrency markets, to identify potential market tops or bottoms. It is based on two moving averages: the 111-day moving average and the 350-day moving average of Bitcoin's price. The indicator suggests that when these two moving averages converge or cross each other, it may signal significant market turning points. The name "Pi Cycle" comes from the mathematical relationship between these two moving averages, roughly equivalent to the mathematical constant Pi (3.14). Traders and analysts use this indicator to gauge potential trend reversals and make informed decisions regarding their trading strategies. However, like any technical analysis tool, it should be used in conjunction with other indicators and fundamental analysis for a comprehensive understanding of market conditions.
Bitcoin 5A Strategy@LilibtcIn our long-term strategy, we have deeply explored the key factors influencing the price of Bitcoin. By precisely calculating the correlation between these factors and the price of Bitcoin, we found that they are closely linked to the value of Bitcoin. To more effectively predict the fair price of Bitcoin, we have built a predictive model and adjusted our investment strategy accordingly based on this model. In practice, the prediction results of this model correspond quite high with actual values, fully demonstrating its reliability in predicting price fluctuations.
When the future is uncertain and the outlook is unclear, people often choose to hold back and avoid risks, or even abandon their original plans. However, the prediction of Bitcoin is full of challenges, but we have taken the first step in exploring.
Table of contents:
Usage Guide
Step 1: Identify the factors that have the greatest impact on Bitcoin price
Step 2: Build a Bitcoin price prediction model
Step 3: Find indicators for warning of bear market bottoms and bull market tops
Step 4: Predict Bitcoin Price in 2025
Step 5: Develop a Bitcoin 5A strategy
Step 6: Verify the performance of the Bitcoin 5A strategy
Usage Restrictions
🦮Usage Guide:
1. On the main interface, modify the code, find the BTCUSD trading pair, and select the BITSTAMP exchange for trading.
2. Set the time period to the daily chart.
3. Select a logarithmic chart in the chart type to better identify price trends.
4. In the strategy settings, adjust the options according to personal needs, including language, display indicators, display strategies, display performance, display optimizations, sell alerts, buy prompts, opening days, backtesting start year, backtesting start month, and backtesting start date.
🏃Step 1: Identify the factors that have the greatest impact on Bitcoin price
📖Correlation Coefficient: A mathematical concept for measuring influence
In order to predict the price trend of Bitcoin, we need to delve into the factors that have the greatest impact on its price. These factors or variables can be expressed in mathematical or statistical correlation coefficients. The correlation coefficient is an indicator of the degree of association between two variables, ranging from -1 to 1. A value of 1 indicates a perfect positive correlation, while a value of -1 indicates a perfect negative correlation.
For example, if the price of corn rises, the price of live pigs usually rises accordingly, because corn is the main feed source for pig breeding. In this case, the correlation coefficient between corn and live pig prices is approximately 0.3. This means that corn is a factor affecting the price of live pigs. On the other hand, if a shooter's performance improves while another shooter's performance deteriorates due to increased psychological pressure, we can say that the former is a factor affecting the latter's performance.
Therefore, in order to identify the factors that have the greatest impact on the price of Bitcoin, we need to find the factors with the highest correlation coefficients with the price of Bitcoin. If, through the analysis of the correlation between the price of Bitcoin and the data on the chain, we find that a certain data factor on the chain has the highest correlation coefficient with the price of Bitcoin, then this data factor on the chain can be identified as the factor that has the greatest impact on the price of Bitcoin. Through calculation, we found that the 🔵number of Bitcoin blocks is one of the factors that has the greatest impact on the price of Bitcoin. From historical data, it can be clearly seen that the growth rate of the 🔵number of Bitcoin blocks is basically consistent with the movement direction of the price of Bitcoin. By analyzing the past ten years of data, we obtained a daily correlation coefficient of 0.93 between the number of Bitcoin blocks and the price of Bitcoin.
🏃Step 2: Build a Bitcoin price prediction model
📖Predictive Model: What formula is used to predict the price of Bitcoin?
Among various prediction models, the linear function is the preferred model due to its high accuracy. Take the standard weight as an example, its linear function graph is a straight line, which is why we choose the linear function model. However, the growth rate of the price of Bitcoin and the number of blocks is extremely fast, which does not conform to the characteristics of the linear function. Therefore, in order to make them more in line with the characteristics of the linear function, we first take the logarithm of both. By observing the logarithmic graph of the price of Bitcoin and the number of blocks, we can find that after the logarithm transformation, the two are more in line with the characteristics of the linear function. Based on this feature, we choose the linear regression model to establish the prediction model.
From the graph below, we can see that the actual red and green K-line fluctuates around the predicted blue and 🟢green line. These predicted values are based on fundamental factors of Bitcoin, which support its value and reflect its reasonable value. This picture is consistent with the theory proposed by Marx in "Das Kapital" that "prices fluctuate around values."
The predicted logarithm of the market cap of Bitcoin is calculated through the model. The specific calculation formula of the Bitcoin price prediction value is as follows:
btc_predicted_marketcap = math.exp(btc_predicted_marketcap_log)
btc_predicted_price = btc_predicted_marketcap / btc_supply
🏃Step 3: Find indicators for early warning of bear market bottoms and bull market tops
📖Warning Indicator: How to Determine Whether the Bitcoin Price has Reached the Bear Market Bottom or the Bull Market Top?
By observing the Bitcoin price logarithmic prediction chart mentioned above, we notice that the actual price often falls below the predicted value at the bottom of a bear market; during the peak of a bull market, the actual price exceeds the predicted price. This pattern indicates that the deviation between the actual price and the predicted price can serve as an early warning signal. When the 🔴 Bitcoin price deviation is very low, as shown by the chart with 🟩green background, it usually means that we are at the bottom of the bear market; Conversely, when the 🔴 Bitcoin price deviation is very high, the chart with a 🟥red background indicates that we are at the peak of the bull market.
This pattern has been validated through six bull and bear markets, and the deviation value indeed serves as an early warning signal, which can be used as an important reference for us to judge market trends.
🏃Step 4:Predict Bitcoin Price in 2025
📖Price Upper Limit
According to the data calculated on February 25, 2024, the 🟠upper limit of the Bitcoin price is $194,287, which is the price ceiling of this bull market. The peak of the last bull market was on November 9, 2021, at $68,664. The bull-bear market cycle is 4 years, so the highest point of this bull market is expected in 2025. That is where you should sell the Bitcoin. and the upper limit of the Bitcoin price will exceed $190,000. The closing price of Bitcoin on February 25, 2024, was $51,729, with an expected increase of 2.7 times.
🏃Step 5: Bitcoin 5A Strategy Formulation
📖Strategy: When to buy or sell, and how many to choose?
We introduce the Bitcoin 5A strategy. This strategy requires us to generate trading signals based on the critical values of the warning indicators, simulate the trades, and collect performance data for evaluation. In the Bitcoin 5A strategy, there are three key parameters: buying warning indicator, batch trading days, and selling warning indicator. Batch trading days are set to ensure that we can make purchases in batches after the trading signal is sent, thus buying at a lower price, selling at a higher price, and reducing the trading impact cost.
In order to find the optimal warning indicator critical value and batch trading days, we need to adjust these parameters repeatedly and perform backtesting. Backtesting is a method established by observing historical data, which can help us better understand market trends and trading opportunities.
Specifically, we can find the key trading points by watching the Bitcoin price log and the Bitcoin price deviation chart. For example, on August 25, 2015, the 🔴 Bitcoin price deviation was at its lowest value of -1.11; on December 17, 2017, the 🔴 Bitcoin price deviation was at its highest value at the time, 1.69; on March 16, 2020, the 🔴 Bitcoin price deviation was at its lowest value at the time, -0.91; on March 13, 2021, the 🔴 Bitcoin price deviation was at its highest value at the time, 1.1; on December 31, 2022, the 🔴 Bitcoin price deviation was at its lowest value at the time, -1.
To ensure that all five key trading points generate trading signals, we set the warning indicator Bitcoin price deviation to the larger of the three lowest values, -0.9, and the smallest of the two highest values, 1. Then, we buy when the warning indicator Bitcoin price deviation is below -0.9, and sell when it is above 1.
In addition, we set the batch trading days as 25 days to implement a strategy that averages purchases and sales. Within these 25 days, we will invest all funds into the market evenly, buying once a day. At the same time, we also sell positions at the same pace, selling once a day.
📖Adjusting the threshold: a key step to optimizing trading strategy
Adjusting the threshold is an indispensable step for better performance. Here are some suggestions for adjusting the batch trading days and critical values of warning indicators:
• Batch trading days: Try different days like 25 to see how it affects overall performance.
• Buy and sell critical values for warning indicators: iteratively fine-tune the buy threshold value of -0.9 and the sell threshold value of 1 exhaustively to find the best combination of threshold values.
Through such careful adjustments, we may find an optimized approach with a lower maximum drawdown rate (e.g., 11%) and a higher cumulative return rate for closed trades (e.g., 474 times). The chart below is a backtest optimization chart for the Bitcoin 5A strategy, providing an intuitive display of strategy adjustments and optimizations.
In this way, we can better grasp market trends and trading opportunities, thereby achieving a more robust and efficient trading strategy.
🏃Step 6: Validating the performance of the Bitcoin 5A Strategy
📖Model interpretability validation: How to explain the Bitcoin price model?
The interpretability of the model is represented by the coefficient of determination R squared, which reflects the degree of match between the predicted value and the actual value. I divided all the historical data from August 18, 2015 into two groups, and used the data from August 18, 2011 to August 18, 2015 as training data to generate the model. The calculation result shows that the coefficient of determination R squared during the 2011-2015 training period is as high as 0.81, which shows that the interpretability of this model is quite high. From the Bitcoin price logarithmic prediction chart in the figure below, we can see that the deviation between the predicted value and the actual value is not far, which means that most of the predicted values can explain the actual value well.
The calculation formula for the coefficient of determination R squared is as follows:
residual = btc_close_log - btc_predicted_price_log
residual_square = residual * residual
train_residual_square_sum = math.sum(residual_square, train_days)
train_mse = train_residual_square_sum / train_days
train_r2 = 1 - train_mse / ta.variance(btc_close_log, train_days)
📖Model stability verification: How to affirm the stability of the Bitcoin price model when new data is available?
Model stability is achieved through model verification. I set the last day of the training period to February 2, 2024 as the "verification group" and used it as verification data to verify the stability of the model. This means that after generating the model if there is new data, I will use these new data together with the model for prediction, and then evaluate the interpretability of the model. If the coefficient of determination when using verification data is close to the previous training one and both remain at a high level, then we can consider this model as stability. The coefficient of determination calculated from the validation period data and model prediction results is as high as 0.83, which is close to the previous 0.81, further proving the stability of this model.
📖Performance evaluation: How to accurately evaluate historical backtesting results?
After detailed strategy testing, to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the results, we need to carry out a detailed performance evaluation on the backtest results. The key evaluation indices include:
• Net value curve: As shown in the rose line, it intuitively reflects the growth of the account net value. By observing the net value curve, we can understand the overall performance and profitability of the strategy.
The basic attributes of this strategy are as follows:
Trading range: 2015-8-19 to 2024-2-18, backtest range: 2011-8-18 to 2024-2-18
Initial capital: 1000USD, order size: 1 contract, pyramid: 50 orders, commission rate: 0.2%, slippage: 20 markers.
In the strategy tester overview chart, we also obtained the following key data:
• Net profit rate of closed trades: as high as 474 times, far exceeding the benchmark, as shown in the strategy tester performance summary chart, Bitcoin buys and holds 210 times.
• Number of closed trades and winning percentage: 100 trades were all profitable, showing the stability and reliability of the strategy.
• Drawdown rate & win-loose ratio: The maximum drawdown rate is only 11%, far lower than Bitcoin's 78%. Profit factor, or win-loose ratio, reached 500, further proving the advantage of the strategy.
Through these detailed evaluations, we can see clearly the excellent balance between risk and return of the Bitcoin 5A strategy.
⚠️Usage Restrictions: Strategy Application in Specific Situations
Please note that this strategy is designed specifically for Bitcoin and should not be applied to other assets or markets without authorization. In actual operations, we should make careful decisions according to our risk tolerance and investment goals.
Order-Block Detector ICT/SMT + FVG + SignalsOrderBlock-Finder
This script shows order-blocks (OB) and fair-value-gaps (FVG). Additionaly there are entry signals for OB and FVG. The Dist-Parameter tell how many candles should exist between the beginning of the OB or FVG and the pullback.
Order-Blocks
An order block in trading typically refers to a significant grouping of buy or sell orders at a particular price level within a financial market. These blocks of orders can influence price movement when they are executed. Here's a breakdown:
Buy Order Block: This occurs when there's a large concentration of buy orders at a specific price level. It indicates a significant interest among traders to purchase the asset if the price reaches that level.
Sell Order Block: Conversely, a sell order block happens when there's a notable accumulation of sell orders at a particular price level. This suggests that many traders are willing to sell the asset if the price reaches that level.
Impact on Price: Order blocks can influence price movement because when the market approaches these levels, the orders within the block may be triggered, leading to increased buying or selling pressure, depending on the type of block. This surge in trading activity can cause the price to either bounce off the level or break through it.
Support and Resistance: Order blocks are often associated with support and resistance levels. A buy order block may act as support, preventing the price from falling further, while a sell order block may serve as resistance, hindering upward price movement.
Fair-Value-Gap
The fair value gap in trading refers to the difference between the current market price of an asset and its calculated fair value. This concept is often used in financial markets, especially in the context of stocks and other securities. Here's a breakdown:
Market Price: The market price is the price at which an asset is currently trading in the market. It is determined by the interaction of supply and demand forces, as well as various other factors such as news, sentiment, and economic conditions.
Fair Value: Fair value represents the estimated intrinsic value of an asset based on fundamental analysis, which includes factors such as earnings, dividends, cash flow, growth prospects, and prevailing interest rates. It's essentially what an asset should be worth based on its fundamentals.
Fair Value Calculation: Analysts and investors use various methods to calculate the fair value of an asset. Common approaches include discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, comparable company analysis (CCA), and dividend discount models (DDM), among others.
Fair Value Gap: The fair value gap is the numerical difference between the calculated fair value of an asset and its current market price. If the market price is higher than the fair value, it suggests that the asset may be overvalued. Conversely, if the market price is lower than the fair value, it indicates that the asset may be undervalued.
Trading Implications: Traders and investors often pay attention to the fair value gap to identify potential trading opportunities. If the market price deviates significantly from the fair value, it may present opportunities to buy or sell the asset with the expectation that the market price will eventually converge towards its fair value.
CVD Divergence Strategy.1.mmThis is the matching Strategy version of Indicator of the same name.
As a member of the K1m6a Lions discussion community we often use versions of the Cumulative Volume Delta indicator
as one of our primary tools along with RSI, RSI Divergences, Open interest, Volume Profile, TPO and Fibonacci levels.
We also discuss visual interpretations of CVD Divergences across multiple time frames much like RSI divergences.
RSI Divergences can be identified as possible Bullish reversal areas when the RSI is making higher low points while
the price is making lower low points.
RSI Divergences can be identified as possible Bearish reversal areas when the RSI is making lower high points while
the price is making higher high points.
CVD Divergences can also be identified the same way on any timeframe as possible reversal signals. As with RSI, these Divergences
often occur as a trend's momentum is giving way to lower volume and areas when profits are being taken signaling a possible reversal
of the current trending price movement.
Hidden Divergences are identified as calculations that may be signaling a continuation of the current trend.
Having not found any public domain versions of a CVD Divergence indicator I have combined some public code to create this
indicator and matching strategy. The calculations for the Cumulative Volume Delta keep a running total for the differences between
the positive changes in volume in relation to the negative changes in volume. A relative upward spike in CVD is created when
there is a large increase in buying vs a low amount of selling. A relative downward spike in CVD is created when
there is a large increase in selling vs a low amount of buying.
In the settings menu, the is a drop down to be used to view the results in alternate timeframes while the chart remains on current timeframe. The Lookback settings can be adjusted so that the divs show on a more local, spontaneous level if set at 1,1,60,1. For a deeper, wider view of the divs, they can be set higher like 7,7,60,7. Adjust them all to suit your view of the divs.
To create this indicator/strategy I used a portion of the code from "Cumulative Volume Delta" by @ contrerae which calculates
the CVD from aggregate volume of many top exchanges and plots the continuous changes on a non-overlay indicator.
For the identification and plotting of the Divergences, I used similar code from the Tradingview Technical "RSI Divergence Indicator"
This indicator should not be used as a stand-alone but as an additional tool to help identify Bullish and Bearish Divergences and
also Bullish and Bearish Hidden Divergences which, as opposed to regular divergences, may indicate a continuation.
CVD Divergence Indicator.1.mmAs a member of the K1m6a Lions discussion community we often use versions of the Cumulative Volume Delta indicator
as one of our primary tools along with RSI, RSI Divergences, Open interest, Volume Profile, TPO and Fibonacci levels.
We also discuss visual interpretations of CVD Divergences across multiple time frames much like RSI divergences.
RSI Divergences can be identified as possible Bullish reversal areas when the RSI is making higher low points while
the price is making lower low points.
RSI Divergences can be identified as possible Bearish reversal areas when the RSI is making lower high points while
the price is making higher high points.
CVD Divergences can also be identified the same way on any timeframe as possible reversal signals. As with RSI, these Divergences
often occur as a trend's momentum is giving way to lower volume and areas when profits are being taken signaling a possible reversal
of the current trending price movement.
Hidden Divergences are identified as calculations that may be signaling a continuation of the current trend.
Having not found any public domain versions of a CVD Divergence indicator I have combined some public code to create this
indicator and matching strategy. The calculations for the Cumulative Volume Delta keep a running total for the differences between
the positive changes in volume in relation to the negative changes in volume. A relative upward spike in CVD is created when
there is a large increase in buying vs a low amount of selling. A relative downward spike in CVD is created when
there is a large increase in selling vs a low amount of buying.
In the settings menu, the is a drop down to be used to view the results in alternate timeframes while the chart remains on current timeframe. The Lookback settings can be adjusted so that the divs show on a more local, spontaneous level if set at 1,1,60,1. For a deeper, wider view of the divs, they can be set higher like 7,7,60,7. Adjust them all to suit your view of the divs.
To create this indicator/strategy I used a portion of the code from "Cumulative Volume Delta" by @ contrerae which calculates
the CVD from aggregate volume of many top exchanges and plots the continuous changes on a non-overlay indicator.
For the identification and plotting of the Divergences, I used similar code from the Tradingview Technical "RSI Divergence Indicator"
This indicator should not be used as a stand-alone but as an additional tool to help identify Bullish and Bearish Divergences and
also Bullish and Bearish Hidden Divergences which, as opposed to regular divergences, may indicate a continuation.
Bitcoin 5A Strategy - Price Upper & Lower Limit@LilibtcIn our long-term strategy, we have deeply explored the key factors influencing the price of Bitcoin. By precisely calculating the correlation between these factors and the price of Bitcoin, we found that they are closely linked to the value of Bitcoin. To more effectively predict the fair price of Bitcoin, we have built a predictive model and adjusted our investment strategy accordingly based on this model. In practice, the prediction results of this model correspond quite high with actual values, fully demonstrating its reliability in predicting price fluctuations.
When the future is uncertain and the outlook is unclear, people often choose to hold back and avoid risks, or even abandon their original plans. However, the prediction of Bitcoin is full of challenges, but we have taken the first step in exploring.
Table of contents:
Usage Guide
Step 1: Identify the factors that have the greatest impact on Bitcoin price
Step 2: Build a Bitcoin price prediction model
Step 3: Find indicators for warning of bear market bottoms and bull market tops
Step 4: Predict Bitcoin Price in 2025
Step 5: Develop a Bitcoin 5A strategy
Step 6: Verify the performance of the Bitcoin 5A strategy
Usage Restrictions
🦮Usage Guide:
1. On the main interface, modify the code, find the BTCUSD trading pair, and select the BITSTAMP exchange for trading.
2. Set the time period to the daily chart.
3. Select a logarithmic chart in the chart type to better identify price trends.
4. In the strategy settings, adjust the options according to personal needs, including language, display indicators, display strategies, display performance, display optimizations, sell alerts, buy prompts, opening days, backtesting start year, backtesting start month, and backtesting start date.
🏃Step 1: Identify the factors that have the greatest impact on Bitcoin price
📖Correlation Coefficient: A mathematical concept for measuring influence
In order to predict the price trend of Bitcoin, we need to delve into the factors that have the greatest impact on its price. These factors or variables can be expressed in mathematical or statistical correlation coefficients. The correlation coefficient is an indicator of the degree of association between two variables, ranging from -1 to 1. A value of 1 indicates a perfect positive correlation, while a value of -1 indicates a perfect negative correlation.
For example, if the price of corn rises, the price of live pigs usually rises accordingly, because corn is the main feed source for pig breeding. In this case, the correlation coefficient between corn and live pig prices is approximately 0.3. This means that corn is a factor affecting the price of live pigs. On the other hand, if a shooter's performance improves while another shooter's performance deteriorates due to increased psychological pressure, we can say that the former is a factor affecting the latter's performance.
Therefore, in order to identify the factors that have the greatest impact on the price of Bitcoin, we need to find the factors with the highest correlation coefficients with the price of Bitcoin. If, through the analysis of the correlation between the price of Bitcoin and the data on the chain, we find that a certain data factor on the chain has the highest correlation coefficient with the price of Bitcoin, then this data factor on the chain can be identified as the factor that has the greatest impact on the price of Bitcoin. Through calculation, we found that the 🔵 number of Bitcoin blocks is one of the factors that has the greatest impact on the price of Bitcoin. From historical data, it can be clearly seen that the growth rate of the 🔵 number of Bitcoin blocks is basically consistent with the movement direction of the price of Bitcoin. By analyzing the past ten years of data, we obtained a daily correlation coefficient of 0.93 between the number of Bitcoin blocks and the price of Bitcoin.
🏃Step 2: Build a Bitcoin price prediction model
📖Predictive Model: What formula is used to predict the price of Bitcoin?
Among various prediction models, the linear function is the preferred model due to its high accuracy. Take the standard weight as an example, its linear function graph is a straight line, which is why we choose the linear function model. However, the growth rate of the price of Bitcoin and the number of blocks is extremely fast, which does not conform to the characteristics of the linear function. Therefore, in order to make them more in line with the characteristics of the linear function, we first take the logarithm of both. By observing the logarithmic graph of the price of Bitcoin and the number of blocks, we can find that after the logarithm transformation, the two are more in line with the characteristics of the linear function. Based on this feature, we choose the linear regression model to establish the prediction model.
From the graph below, we can see that the actual red and green K-line fluctuates around the predicted blue and 🟢green line. These predicted values are based on fundamental factors of Bitcoin, which support its value and reflect its reasonable value. This picture is consistent with the theory proposed by Marx in "Das Kapital" that "prices fluctuate around values."
The predicted logarithm of the market cap of Bitcoin is calculated through the model. The specific calculation formula of the Bitcoin price prediction value is as follows:
btc_predicted_marketcap = math.exp(btc_predicted_marketcap_log)
btc_predicted_price = btc_predicted_marketcap / btc_supply
🏃Step 3: Find indicators for early warning of bear market bottoms and bull market tops
📖Warning Indicator: How to Determine Whether the Bitcoin Price has Reached the Bear Market Bottom or the Bull Market Top?
By observing the Bitcoin price logarithmic prediction chart mentioned above, we notice that the actual price often falls below the predicted value at the bottom of a bear market; during the peak of a bull market, the actual price exceeds the predicted price. This pattern indicates that the deviation between the actual price and the predicted price can serve as an early warning signal. When the 🔴 Bitcoin price deviation is very low, as shown by the chart with 🟩green background, it usually means that we are at the bottom of the bear market; Conversely, when the 🔴 Bitcoin price deviation is very high, the chart with a 🟥red background indicates that we are at the peak of the bull market.
This pattern has been validated through six bull and bear markets, and the deviation value indeed serves as an early warning signal, which can be used as an important reference for us to judge market trends.
🏃Step 4:Predict Bitcoin Price in 2025
📖Price Upper Limit
According to the data calculated on March 10, 2023(If you want to check latest data, please contact with author), the 🟠upper limit of the Bitcoin price is $132,453, which is the price ceiling of this bull market. The peak of the last bull market was on November 9, 2021, at $68,664. The bull-bear market cycle is 4 years, so the highest point of this bull market is expected in 2025, and the 🟠upper limit of the Bitcoin price will exceed $130,000. The closing price of Bitcoin on March 10, 2024, was $68,515, with an expected increase of 90%.
🏃Step 5: Bitcoin 5A Strategy Formulation
📖Strategy: When to buy or sell, and how many to choose?
We introduce the Bitcoin 5A strategy. This strategy requires us to generate trading signals based on the critical values of the warning indicators, simulate the trades, and collect performance data for evaluation. In the Bitcoin 5A strategy, there are three key parameters: buying warning indicator, batch trading days, and selling warning indicator. Batch trading days are set to ensure that we can make purchases in batches after the trading signal is sent, thus buying at a lower price, selling at a higher price, and reducing the trading impact cost.
In order to find the optimal warning indicator critical value and batch trading days, we need to adjust these parameters repeatedly and perform backtesting. Backtesting is a method established by observing historical data, which can help us better understand market trends and trading opportunities.
Specifically, we can find the key trading points by watching the Bitcoin price log and the Bitcoin price deviation chart. For example, on August 25, 2015, the 🔴 Bitcoin price deviation was at its lowest value of -1.11; on December 17, 2017, the 🔴 Bitcoin price deviation was at its highest value at the time, 1.69; on March 16, 2020, the 🔴 Bitcoin price deviation was at its lowest value at the time, -0.91; on March 13, 2021, the 🔴 Bitcoin price deviation was at its highest value at the time, 1.1; on December 31, 2022, the 🔴 Bitcoin price deviation was at its lowest value at the time, -1.
To ensure that all five key trading points generate trading signals, we set the warning indicator Bitcoin price deviation to the larger of the three lowest values, -0.9, and the smallest of the two highest values, 1. Then, we buy when the warning indicator Bitcoin price deviation is below -0.9, and sell when it is above 1.
In addition, we set the batch trading days as 25 days to implement a strategy that averages purchases and sales. Within these 25 days, we will invest all funds into the market evenly, buying once a day. At the same time, we also sell positions at the same pace, selling once a day.
📖Adjusting the threshold: a key step to optimizing trading strategy
Adjusting the threshold is an indispensable step for better performance. Here are some suggestions for adjusting the batch trading days and critical values of warning indicators:
• Batch trading days: Try different days like 25 to see how it affects overall performance.
• Buy and sell critical values for warning indicators: iteratively fine-tune the buy threshold value of -0.9 and the sell threshold value of 1 exhaustively to find the best combination of threshold values.
Through such careful adjustments, we may find an optimized approach with a lower maximum drawdown rate (e.g., 11%) and a higher cumulative return rate for closed trades (e.g., 474 times). The chart below is a backtest optimization chart for the Bitcoin 5A strategy, providing an intuitive display of strategy adjustments and optimizations.
In this way, we can better grasp market trends and trading opportunities, thereby achieving a more robust and efficient trading strategy.
🏃Step 6: Validating the performance of the Bitcoin 5A Strategy
📖Model accuracy validation: How to judge the accuracy of the Bitcoin price model?
The accuracy of the model is represented by the coefficient of determination R square, which reflects the degree of match between the predicted value and the actual value. I divided all the historical data from August 18, 2015 into two groups, and used the data from August 18, 2011 to August 18, 2015 as training data to generate the model. The calculation result shows that the coefficient of determination R squared during the 2011-2015 training period is as high as 0.81, which shows that the accuracy of this model is quite high. From the Bitcoin price logarithmic prediction chart in the figure below, we can see that the deviation between the predicted value and the actual value is not far, which means that most of the predicted values can explain the actual value well.
The calculation formula for the coefficient of determination R square is as follows:
residual = btc_close_log - btc_predicted_price_log
residual_square = residual * residual
train_residual_square_sum = math.sum(residual_square, train_days)
train_mse = train_residual_square_sum / train_days
train_r2 = 1 - train_mse / ta.variance(btc_close_log, train_days)
📖Model reliability verification: How to affirm the reliability of the Bitcoin price model when new data is available?
Model reliability is achieved through model verification. I set the last day of the training period to February 2, 2024 as the "verification group" and used it as verification data to verify the reliability of the model. This means that after generating the model if there is new data, I will use these new data together with the model for prediction, and then evaluate the accuracy of the model. If the coefficient of determination when using verification data is close to the previous training one and both remain at a high level, then we can consider this model as reliable. The coefficient of determination calculated from the validation period data and model prediction results is as high as 0.83, which is close to the previous 0.81, further proving the reliability of this model.
📖Performance evaluation: How to accurately evaluate historical backtesting results?
After detailed strategy testing, to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the results, we need to carry out a detailed performance evaluation on the backtest results. The key evaluation indices include:
• Net value curve: As shown in the rose line, it intuitively reflects the growth of the account net value. By observing the net value curve, we can understand the overall performance and profitability of the strategy.
The basic attributes of this strategy are as follows:
Trading range: 2015-8-19 to 2024-2-18, backtest range: 2011-8-18 to 2024-2-18
Initial capital: 1000USD, order size: 1 contract, pyramid: 50 orders, commission rate: 0.2%, slippage: 20 markers.
In the strategy tester overview chart, we also obtained the following key data:
• Net profit rate of closed trades: as high as 474 times, far exceeding the benchmark, as shown in the strategy tester performance summary chart, Bitcoin buys and holds 210 times.
• Number of closed trades and winning percentage: 100 trades were all profitable, showing the stability and reliability of the strategy.
• Drawdown rate & win-loose ratio: The maximum drawdown rate is only 11%, far lower than Bitcoin's 78%. Profit factor, or win-loose ratio, reached 500, further proving the advantage of the strategy.
Through these detailed evaluations, we can see clearly the excellent balance between risk and return of the Bitcoin 5A strategy.
⚠️Usage Restrictions: Strategy Application in Specific Situations
Please note that this strategy is designed specifically for Bitcoin and should not be applied to other assets or markets without authorization. In actual operations, we should make careful decisions according to our risk tolerance and investment goals.
Fundamental Analysis [TrendX_]__________xXx__________ INTRODUCTION __________xXx__________
Fundamental Analysis indicator employs a two-pronged approach to estimate the fair value of a security. This utilizes both relative valuation and intrinsic valuation methods, aiming to achieve a comprehensive understanding of the company's worth.
__________xXx__________ FEATURES AND USAGES __________xXx__________
1 - RELATIVE VALUATION:
Relative valuation takes a company's average financial ratios over a specific number of periods into account.
Price-to-Earnings Ratio (PE Ratio): This metric compares the company's current stock price to its earnings per share. A higher PE ratio indicates investors are willing to pay more for each dollar of earnings, potentially suggesting a growth expectation.
Price-to-Book Ratio (PB Ratio): This metric compares the company's current stock price to its book value per share. A higher PB ratio suggests the market values the company's assets more highly than their accounting book value.
Modified-PE-PB-Growth: This is the modified version for the PE and PB forward. Apply the company's average historical ROE growth rate to PE ratio. Similarly, apply the company's projected ROA growth rate to the industry average PB ratio to arrive at an adjusted PB ratio.
Enterprise Value (EV)/Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EBITDA) Multiple: This metric compares the company's enterprise value (market capitalization + debt - cash) to its EBITDA. It provides a valuation measure that considers the company's capital structure.
2 - INTRINSIC VALUATION:
Intrinsic valuation attempts to estimate the inherent value of a company based on its future cash flow generation potential. This approach focuses on the company's long-term fundamentals rather than its current market price.
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): This method discounts the company's projected future free cash flows to their present value. It requires forecasting future cash flows, a discount rate, and a terminal growth rate. The present value of these future cash flows represents the company's intrinsic value.
Dividend Discount Model (DDM): This method assumes the company's value is based on its ability to distribute future dividends to shareholders. It discounts the company's expected future dividends to their present value, providing another estimate of intrinsic value.
Graham Number: Developed by Benjamin Graham, this method utilizes a formula based on a company's earnings per share and book value per share to estimate its intrinsic value. The number 22.5, embedded within this formula, serves as a normalization factor, embodying an ‘ideal’ PE of 15 and PB of 1.5. This approach provides a conservative estimate of a company’s intrinsic value, offering a safety margin for investors.
Net-Nets: Net-Nets refer to micro-to-small companies trading at a price less than 67% of their net current asset value, which is calculated by subtracting current liabilities from current assets. This conservative approach, deeply rooted in the principles of value investing, essentially implies that these companies are undervalued to the extent that their market price is less than their liquidation value.
*** The color of each valuation toolkit’s background is determined UNDERVALUE (above current price) in Turquoise Green color and OVERVALUE (below acceptable rate) in Pink color.
3 - FINANCIAL METRICS
The financial metrics will provide a holistic view of company's financial health, efficiency, risk profile, and growth prospects
Efficiency Metrics:
Net Margin: This metric measures the percentage of each dollar of revenue remaining as profit after accounting for all operating expenses. A higher net margin indicates a company's efficiency in converting sales into profit.
Dividend Yield: This metric represents the annual dividend payment per share divided by the current stock price. It reflects the portion of a company's earnings distributed to shareholders as dividends. A higher dividend yield suggests a focus on shareholder returns.
Fraud Detection Metrics:
Beneish M-score (M-score): This metric is a statistical model used to identify potential accounting manipulations. A higher M-score indicates a greater likelihood of fraudulent activity. It's crucial to analyze the M-score along with other financial information.
Profitability and Growth Metrics:
Piotroski F-score (F-score): This metric assesses a company's financial health and profitability based on nine criteria. A higher F-score suggests a more robust and potentially higher-growth company.
Quick Ratio: This metric measures a company's ability to meet its short-term obligations (due within a year) using its most liquid assets (cash and equivalents, marketable securities, and accounts receivable). A higher quick ratio indicates a stronger short-term liquidity position.
Inventory Ratio: This metric measures how long it takes a company to sell its inventory on average. A lower inventory ratio suggests efficient inventory management and potentially lower holding costs.
Risk Metrics:
Risk-Free Rate (Risk-Free): This metric represents the theoretical rate of return on a risk-free investment, often approximated by the 10-year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate. It serves as a benchmark for evaluating the return required for riskier assets like stocks.
Beta: This metric measures a stock's volatility relative to the overall market (often represented by its market index). A beta of 1 indicates the stock's price movement mirrors the market. A beta greater than 1 suggests the stock is more volatile than the market, and vice versa.
Growth Metrics:
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM): This model estimates the expected return on a stock based on its beta, the risk-free rate, and the market risk premium. CAPM helps determine if a stock is potentially overvalued or undervalued.
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC): This metric represents the average cost of capital a company uses to finance its operations (equity and debt). A lower WACC suggests a company can access capital at a cheaper rate, potentially leading to higher profitability.
Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR): This metric calculates the average annual growth rate of a stock price over a specific period. It provides an indication of the historical price appreciation.
Additional:
Sustainable Growth Rate (Growth const.): This metric estimates the maximum long-term growth rate a company can sustain based on its internal resources (retained earnings) and industry growth.
Value at Risk (VaR): This metric estimates the maximum potential loss a stock price might experience over a given timeframe with a certain confidence level. It helps assess the downside risk associated with an investment.
*** The color of each metric’s background is determined above acceptable rate in Turquoise Green color and below acceptable rate in Pink color
__________xXx__________ CONCLUSION__________xXx__________
Fundamental analysis plays a critical role in empowering both investors and traders to navigate the dynamic stock markets. By delving deeper into a company's underlying financial health, future prospects, and competitive landscape, this approach fosters informed decision-making that leads to risk reduction and profit optimization. The Fundamental Analysis can serve as a cornerstone for investors and traders alike, offering a myriad of benefits.
For investors, it is instrumental in risk reduction, as it enables the assessment of a company’s fair value through financial statements, competitive advantages, and growth potential. This critical evaluation aids in avoiding overvalued stocks and spotting undervalued opportunities. Moreover, it fosters a long-term focus, steering investors towards decisions that reflect a company’s long-term prospects, thus supporting a buy-and-hold strategy that resonates with enduring investment objectives. Additionally, a profound comprehension of a company’s fundamentals bolsters investor confidence, ensuring that investment choices are grounded in solid data rather than speculative market noise.
Traders, on the other hand, can leverage fundamental analysis to pinpoint short-term opportunities by staying abreast of a company’s imminent catalysts such as financial health, efficiency, risk profile, or growth prospects. This knowledge allows them to anticipate market movements and seize fleeting chances for profit. It also provides informed insights for establishing entry and exit points, identifying companies poised for robust growth or those facing potential downturns, which is crucial for strategizing trades, including short selling. Importantly, by concentrating on fundamental data, traders can mitigate emotional decision-making, fostering a disciplined approach to trading that curtails the risks associated with impulsive, emotion-driven errors.
__________xXx__________ DISCLAIMER__________xXx__________
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Numerous factors and inherent uncertainties can influence the outcome of any endeavor, and predicting future events with certainty is impossible.
Trading and Investing inherently carries risk, and the majority of traders experience losses. This indicator is provided solely for informational and educational purposes and does not constitute financial advice.
Therefore, always exercise caution and independent judgment when making investment decisions based on any form of past performance analysis, including this indicator's results.
Fibonacci Archer Box [ChartPrime]Fibonacci Archer Box (ChartPrime) is a full featured Fibonacci box indicator that automatically plots based on pivot points. This indicator plots retracement levels, time lines, fan lines, and angles. Each one of these features are fully customizable with the ability to disable individual features. A unique aspect to this implementation is the ability to set targets based on retracement levels and time zones. This is set to 0.618 by default but you can pick any Fibonacci zone you like. Also included are markings that show you when Fibonacci levels are met or exceeded. These moments are plotted on the chart as colored dots that can be enabled or disabled. Along with these markings are crosses that can be shown when targets are hit. Both of these markings are colored with the related Fibonacci level colors.
When there is a zig-zag, this indicator will test to see if the zig-zag meets the criteria set up by the user before plotting a new Fibonacci box. You can pick from either higher highs or lower highs for bearish patterns, and higher lows or lower lows for bullish patterns. Both patterns can be set to use both when finding new boxes if you want to make it more sensitive. You also have the option to filter based on minimum and maximum size. If the box isn't within the selected size range, it will simply be ignored. The pivot levels can be configured to use either candle wicks or candle bodies. By default this is configured to use candle wick with a lookforward of 5 and lookback of 10.
We have included alerts for Fibonacci level crosses, Fibonacci time crosses, and target hits. All alerts are found in the add alert section built into tradingview to make alert creation as easy as possible. Each alert is labeled with their correct names to make navigation simple.
W.D. Gann, a renowned figure in the world of trading and market analysis, is often questioned for his use of Fibonacci levels in his strategies. However, evidence points to the fact that Gann did not directly employ Fibonacci price levels in his work. Instead, Gann had his unique approach, dividing price ranges into thirds, eighths, and other fractions, which, although somewhat aligning with Fibonacci levels, are not exact matches. It is clear that Gann was familiar with Fibonacci and the golden ratio, as references to them appear in his recommended reading list and some of his writings. Despite this awareness, Gann chose not to incorporate Fibonacci levels explicitly in his methodologies, preferring instead to use his divisions of price and time. Notably, Gann's emphasis on the 50% level—a marker not associated with Fibonacci numbers—further illustrates his departure from Fibonacci usage. This level, despite its popularity among some Fibonacci enthusiasts, does not stem from Fibonacci's sequence. This is why we opted to call this indicator Fibonacci Archer Box instead of a Gann Box as we didn't feel like it was appropriate.
In summary, the Fibonacci Archer Box (ChartPrime) is a tool that incorporates Fibonacci retracements and projections with an automated pivot point-based plotting system. It allows for customization across various features including retracement levels, timelines, fan lines, and angles, and integrates visual cues for level crosses and target hits. While it acknowledges the methodologies of W.D. Gann, it distinctively utilizes Fibonacci techniques, providing a straightforward tool for market analysis. We hope you enjoy using this indicator as much as we enjoyed making it!
Enjoy
Sector ETF macro trendThe Sector ETF Macro Trend indicator is designed for technical analysis of broad economic trends through sector-specific exchange-traded funds (ETFs). It uses logarithmic price transformation, linear regression, and volatility analysis to examine sector trends and stability, providing a technical basis for analytical assessment.
Core Analysis Techniques
Logarithmic Transformation and Regression: Converts ETF closing prices logarithmically to reveal sector growth patterns and dynamics. Linear regression on these prices defines the main trend direction, essential for trend analysis.
Volatility Bands for Market State Assessment: Applies standard deviation on logarithmic prices to create dynamic bands around the trendline, identifying overbought or oversold sector conditions by marking deviations from the central trend.
Sector-Specific Analysis: Selection among different sector ETFs allows for precise examination of sectors like technology, healthcare, and financials, enabling focused insights into specific market segments.
Adaptability and Insight
Customizable Parameters: Offers flexibility in modifying regression length and smoothing factors to accommodate various analysis strategies and risk preferences.
Trend Direction and Momentum: Evaluates the ETF's trajectory against historical data and volatility bands to determine sector trend strength and direction, aiding in the prediction of market shifts.
Strategic Application
Without providing explicit trading signals, the indicator focuses on trend and volatility analysis for a strategic view on sector investments. It supports:
Identifying macroeconomic trends through ETF performance analysis.
Informing portfolio decisions with insights into sector momentum and stability.
Forecasting market movements by analyzing overbought or oversold conditions against the ETF price movement and volatility bands.
The Sector ETF Macro Trend indicator serves as a technical tool for analyzing sector-level market trends, offering detailed insights into the dynamics of economic sectors for thorough market analysis.
Wiseball RSI Super Advanced Divergences | EssentialThis indicator is a cutting-edge tool designed to elevate your trading strategy by identifying both regular and hidden RSI divergences with unparalleled precision. Moreover, this indicator uniquely offers the capability to visualize divergences as they are forming ("anticipated"), a feature that stands out for its originality and innovation.
Unique Features and How They Work:
This tool distinguishes itself by leveraging its Divergences Detection System (DDS), which incorporates advanced algorithms to analyze market movements and oscillator behavior beyond the capabilities of existing open-source scripts. Here's a brief overview of what makes DDS uniquely effective:
Anticipated and Projected Divergences: DDS goes beyond mere detection of existing divergences. It offers insights into divergences that are currently forming and even projects potential future divergences by analyzing current trends and oscillator levels. This forward-looking feature empowers traders to anticipate market movements, offering a strategic advantage.
Comprehensive Pivot Analysis: Unlike typical divergence indicators, such as the "RSI Divergence Indicator," which only identifies divergences between two consecutive pivots, DDS is engineered to analyze as many previous pivots as the user's configuration allows (duration min/max). This capability ensures that no potential trend or extended divergence is overlooked, providing a more thorough market analysis.
Multiple Divergences Detection: Our system is capable of detecting multiple divergences within the same timeframe. For instance, it can identify a significant bearish divergence alongside a minor bullish divergence, offering a nuanced view of market dynamics that other indicators might miss.
Extensive Customization Options: DDS provides an array of configuration settings, allowing traders to tailor the detection system to their specific needs. Whether adjusting for sensitivity, timeframes, or specific divergence types, these customization options ensure that the tool can adapt to various trading strategies and preferences.
Our commitment to continuous development means that we regularly update the script based on user feedback, ensuring that it remains at the forefront of trading technology.
How to Use This Script:
Setup: Search for "Wiseball RSI Super Advanced Divergences" in the TradingView indicator library. Easily add the script to your TradingView chart and adjust the settings according to your trading preferences.
Analysis: The script automatically identifies divergences and highlights them on your chart, using color-coded lines and patterns for easy interpretation.
Action: Customize alerts to notify you of new divergences, enabling timely trading decisions based on the script's analysis.
Note: This indicator is best used on a dark background, as it has been optimized for this.
Divergence Style Coding:
Bullish Regular Divergence: Green
Bullish Hidden Divergence: Blue
Bearish Regular Divergence: Red
Bearish Hidden Divergence: Orange
Confirmed Divergence: Solid opaque line
Anticipated Divergence: Dotted line in the type's color
Projected Divergence: Dashed line in the type's color
Understand Technical and practical limitations:
This indicator is designed to facilitate ease of use, correspond to standard practices, and cover your essential needs. DDS options are limited to the essentials for simplicity and ease of use. Moreover, these limitations allow for reduced calculation time and a smooth display.
It is limited to displaying 100 divergences, and the number of bars analyzed is fixed at 960. Use the replay mode to view past divergences.
Divergences sharing the same endpoint are limited to the divergence with the longest duration.
Divergences of the same type that cross or share the same time space are filtered to display only one.
The maximum duration of divergences is set to 120 bars.
Anticipated divergences but not projected ones.
Note: As with all trading tools, it's crucial to use this indicator in conjunction with other indicators and fundamental analysis to validate your trading decisions. Our tools are designed to provide you with valuable insights, not to predict the future. Always conduct your research and trade responsibly.
Historical Price Projection [LuxAlgo]The Historical Price Projection tool aims to project future price behavior based on historical price behavior plus a user defined growth factor.
The main feature of this tool is to plot a future price forecast with a surrounding area that exactly matches the price behavior of the selected period, with or without added drift.
Other features of the tool include:
User-selected period up to 500 bars anywhere on the chart within 5000 bars
User selected growth factor from 0 (no growth) to 100, this is the percentage of drift to be used in the forecast.
User selected area wide
Show/hide forecast area
🔶 USAGE
This tool generates a price projection with exactly the same price behavior over the period selected by the user, plus a growth factor .
The user must confirm the selection of the anchor point in order for the tool to be executed; this can be done directly on the chart by clicking on any bar, or via the date field in the settings panel.
As we can see on this chart, the four phases of the market cycle are clearly defined and marked, so we choose the distribution phase as our anchor point because in our analysis, we want to see how the market would behave if we were currently at the same point in the cycle.
In the image above, the growth factor parameter is set to 0 so that the projection matches the selection. The tool will use up to 500 bars after the selection point.
The growth factor is defined as the percentage of drift that the tool will use.
Drift is defined as follows:
For periods with a positive return: average negative return within the period
For negative return periods: average positive return within the period
On the chart above, we have selected the same period but added a growth factor of 10, so that the tool uses a 10% drift in its calculations of future prices.
As the return in the selected period is negative, the added drift will make the projection more bearish than the prices from the selection.
On this chart we have changed the selected period, we have chosen the accumulation phase of the last cycle as the anchor point, again with a growth factor of 10%.
As we can see, prices explode higher, making the projection very bullish, as the added effect of both the bullish selected period and the 10% drift is taken into account.
This last chart is a long-term chart, a quarterly chart of the Dow, and it will serve as a review exercise.
What if... everything goes south and the crash of '29 is repeated?
The answer is in the chart, and it is not for the faint of heart
In this case we have chosen a growth factor of 0 to see exactly the same price behaviour projected into the future.
🔶 SETTINGS
🔹 Data Gathering
Anchor point: Starting point for data collection, up to 500 bars will be used.
🔹 Data Transformation
Growth Factor: Values from 0 to 100, is the amount of drift used to calculate the next price in the series.
Area Width: Values from 0 to 100, controls the width of the area around the forecast as an increment/decrement of the growth factor.
🔹 Style
Price line width: Size of the price line.
Bullish color
Bearish color
Show Area: Show forecast area.
Area color
BTC/USD Inflation priced in! ~Period 2009 - 2023 (by TAS)The script creates a custom indicator titled "BTC Adjusted for Economic Factors.
Adjusted BTC Price is plotted in red, making it more prominent. The adjusted price is Bitcoin's historical closing prices adjusted for cumulative inflation over time, based on the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) annual inflation rates from 2009 onwards.
The script calculates the adjusted price of Bitcoin by taking into account the effect of inflation on its value. It uses annual CPI rates for each year from 2009 to 2022 to calculate a cumulative inflation factor. The script assumes a placeholder inflation rate of 2.5% for 2023, indicating that this value should be updated when the actual rate is available. The script suggests adding CPI rates for additional years as they become available to maintain the accuracy of the adjustment.
Here's a breakdown of how the script works:
Core CPI Annual Inflation Rates: It starts by defining the annual inflation rates for each year from 2009 to 2022, expressed as a percentage divided by 100 to convert to a decimal.
Cumulative Inflation Calculation: The script calculates cumulative inflation starting from the year 2009 up to the current year. For each year that has passed since 2009, it multiplies the cumulative inflation factor by (1 + cpiRate), where cpiRate is the inflation rate for that year. This effectively compounds the inflation rate over time.
Adjusting Bitcoin's Price: The script then adjusts Bitcoin's closing price (close) for the calculated cumulative inflation to get the adjusted price (adjustedPrice).
Plotting the Prices: Finally, it plots both the original and the adjusted Bitcoin prices on the chart, allowing users to visually compare how inflation has theoretically impacted Bitcoin's value over time.
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Important to notice, Fib. Retracements from the 2017 cycle top to the recent top (¬80K) doesn't look invalidated.
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Inputs and feedback are welcome!
