MCL: One-Two Punch Could Lift Crude Oil to Higher Ground

30 set

NYMEX: Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures ( MCL1!)
On September 18th, the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rate by a supersized 50 basis points, ushering a long-awaited monetary easing cycle.

Six days later, on September 24th, China introduced a broad stimulus package to revive its economy. It includes cutting interest rates, reducing bank reserve requirements, supporting the property sector, and injecting liquidity into the stock market. Specifically,
• The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, cut its 7-day reverse repurchase rate to 1.5% from 1.7%
• The PBOC slashed the reserve requirement ratio of financial institutions by 0.5%
• The PBOC lowered home mortgage downpayment requirements to 15%; previously, those buying houses other than primary residence were required to put down 25%
• Separately, the PBOC would advise banks to lower mortgage interest rate by 0.5%
• The PBOC also announced a new RMB $1 trillion long-term credit facility (equivalent to US$143 billion). It allows financial institutions to use their stocks, bonds and ETF funds as collateral to obtain funding from the PBOC. The use of fund is specifically earmarked for credit lending to publicly traded companies for stock buyback

Each of these policies is a major stimulus measure. Putting together, they have the potential to reshape the economic outlook for China, and for the rest of the world as well.

Following the announcement, Chinese stock markets clocked their best week in 16 years as the CSI 300 rallied 15.7%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index recorded a weekly gain of 12.75%. On Friday, the CSI 300 climbed 4.47% to close at 3,703.68, its highest level in a year, while the HSI rose 3.32% to 20,586.94, its highest since February 2023.

On Monday, September 30th, China’s SSE Composite Index rallied 8.06%, closing at 3,336.50. This marks a nine-day winning streak, its best day since September 2008 and its highest point since August 2023.


In 2024, China’s economy has slowed significantly. Last week, China released its industrial profit data for August, which saw a 17.8% plunge year on year. On a year-to-date basis, profits at large industrial firms grew at 0.5% to 4.65 trillion yuan ($663.47 billion) for the first eight months, down from 3.6%.

However, China’s supersized monetary policies could help its economy turn a corner. It is highly expected that China’s Ministry of Finance will follow suit to announce new fiscal stimulus and add more ammunition to fuel economic growth.

Together, the extraordinary measures installed by the Top 2 economies, which account for 40% of global GDP, could help improve the global economy in a meaningful way.

WTI Crude Oil: Higher Demand from Economic Growth
While it is still too early to quantify how much the global economy would benefit from these stimulus measures, we could expect higher industrial output from the government credit extension and the lower business cost of capital. The potential impact could be huge for stocks, bonds, foreign exchange and commodities. Today, my analysis concentrates on crude oil.

The Fed rate cut and China Stimulus package both exceeded market expectations. These are game changers big enough to reverse the declining trend of crude oil prices. Recent escalation of Middle East conflict would only add to the uncertainty of oil supply.

In my opinion, WTI could reclaim the previous levels of $76, $83 and $89, consequently. The expected stimulus from China’s Ministry of Finance and the November 6th FOMC rate cut could support the upward trend if they meet or exceed market expectations.

The recent CFTC Commitment of Traders report confirms a shift to the long positions:
• As of September 24th, total open interest (OI) of WTI futures was 2,242,432 contracts
• Managed Money held 210,469 long and 48,541 short, a 4.3-to-1 ratio
• Compared to the previous week, the long positions increased by 24,734, while the shorts decreased by 3,969 contracts; this shows a bullish view building up

For someone with a bullish view of crude oil, he could establish a long position in NYMEX Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures (MCL). The contract has a notional value of 100 barrels. At 1/10 the size of benchmark WTI Crude Oil contracts, Micro WTI futures offer the same robust trading transparency and price discovery with smaller margin requirements. At Friday closing price of $68.63, each November contract (MCLX) is worth $6,863. CME Group requires an initial margin of $596 for each MCL contract, long or short.

Hypothetically, if WTI bounced back to $76.88, its previous high on August 5th, the price increase of $8.25 would produce a gain of $825 (=8.25x100) for a long position.

The risk of buying crude oil is that the follow-up government stimulus packages were less than market expectations, which could undermine the growth forecast. To hedge the downside risk, an experienced trader could consider the use of put options on WTI crude oil futures.

Happy Trading.

Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.

CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/