ES - 1 Hour / Pivotal Timeframe - BONDS Diverging
Aggiornato
WE REMAIN IN A BEAR MARKET, regardless of the Retracement.
The 50SMA is 35 handles below the 200SMA.
Bullish?
Definetely not.
That said, the Riggers on the Trigger will continue to bleed out every
last cent prior to the next sudden and very sharp decline.
For now they have the Ball, but "Inflation is at Zero" from the Admin
has found new heights of perceptuion management - Absurdity.
_________________________________________________________________________
After the 199 EMA tag n' bag, a defensive retracement on Profit taking.
Under the hood, the Volumes continue to decline, Retailers continue to
add Puts citing the VIX @ Lows.
Dr. Bury, deep drawdown on Scion's Puts.
FOMO on the FED Pivot has hit 92% Sentiment for Bulls, room to run as
the horror show can extend and pretend for a few more weeks. Extreme
Greed is in trade.
Twitter is filled with the usual Buzz Lightyear overreach, "Infinity~!"
While MBS remains - NO BID and Defaults are rising rapidly.
Bond Auctions - 379 Failures.
_________________________________________________________________________
Insiders buying on Share Buy Backs, Insts peeling it off ever so slowly.
Unfortunately, Retail Put buying is back to FOMO as well - a large short term
cross-current.
It appears to be a Distribution phase into a Range... where is the range?
That will depend on today's response to the FOMC's Meeting Minutes.
A larger Pullback is due, there are 7 Gaps below, how will today and Friday's
expiry trade out? High Probability - ranging to wreck Retail's Bearish positioning
with an expanded range now that 4337 was front run for SEP, DEC blew right thru
this level.
Apple's Gap @ 175 wants a fill, Tesla is a mental patient once again, seeking 1030
to 1050 in the break - this implies the 4337 may give way to a higher high into
the pivot for time, AUG 22nd to SEP 4th/5th.
_________________________________________________________________________
Slop, Chop, Pop & Drop - the RANGE.
To Distro more Junk & Co.
_________________________________________________________________________
Bonds are not buying it... as they are watching the inversion with disbelief as China
begins "enhanced lockdowns" and Global Economic activity implodes... yeah, naw, they
are calling Bullsh_t.
Inversion is 12 Bips away on the 1's - 2's on out to 5's checkmate - Inverted and although
they are ranging between 32 and 48 Bips... it is 100% persistent.
HGY - Denegerate disbelief, Bonds should not, in any way be acting as they are were this
a Bull Market or New Bull Market... it tales time to assert reality. It takes time to Distro
off all the Junk bought near the lows to be re-liquified at a time when Liquidity is simply
evaporating due to the crushing load of debt, both public and private from all corners.
Housing Starts were another disaster, retail sales - with Back to School may shows signs
of hope, false hope, but hope none the less, we shall see how the Cooks in the Kitchen
serve it up.
_________________________________________________________________________
RTY / ES / NQ / YM made extreme moves off the June 16th Pivot.
Today, we'll find out whether we consolidate in an expanding range or simply run through
resistance to higher levels - A rally no one understands, but FOMO Degens do not care.
September is ahead, statistically - the worst month of the year.
Funda's are not driving Junk & Co, greed and fear are. Mo $, Fear of Mo $ miss.
_________________________________________________________________________
In SUM, it's a dangerous Joke of an Equity Complex that will do far more harm.
Hyper BK Junk BBY, GME, AMC, COIN all finding Uber Luv. We've seen this time and again
and the ending... the song remains the same.
_________________________________________________________________________
Extreme Patience remains the stock in trade.
NQ Summation and OSC's are getting squeezed to extremes once again, point critical
has arrived.
The 2 Year (2YY Futures) will define the Pivot, where the Fed has a modicum of control
on the Curve.
TLT appears to be an "M" for Murder and not a New Bull Market, it can RT to 130, but given
the recent performance, that trade is growing long on hope, faith and success. The DX
is at a super critical level - with Eurodollar Futures GED.X cranking back down, somethings
going to Snap.
A great deal hinges on Crude Oil - 85 to 77 to 64 is the implied lower range over time... awhile.
Oil tends to lead the declines in Bear Markets as Utilities, Healthcare and Bonds are the rotation
on schedule.
_________________________________________________________________________
RESISTANCE AHEAD OF NEWS is where we are.
The 50SMA is 35 handles below the 200SMA.
Bullish?
Definetely not.
That said, the Riggers on the Trigger will continue to bleed out every
last cent prior to the next sudden and very sharp decline.
For now they have the Ball, but "Inflation is at Zero" from the Admin
has found new heights of perceptuion management - Absurdity.
_________________________________________________________________________
After the 199 EMA tag n' bag, a defensive retracement on Profit taking.
Under the hood, the Volumes continue to decline, Retailers continue to
add Puts citing the VIX @ Lows.
Dr. Bury, deep drawdown on Scion's Puts.
FOMO on the FED Pivot has hit 92% Sentiment for Bulls, room to run as
the horror show can extend and pretend for a few more weeks. Extreme
Greed is in trade.
Twitter is filled with the usual Buzz Lightyear overreach, "Infinity~!"
While MBS remains - NO BID and Defaults are rising rapidly.
Bond Auctions - 379 Failures.
_________________________________________________________________________
Insiders buying on Share Buy Backs, Insts peeling it off ever so slowly.
Unfortunately, Retail Put buying is back to FOMO as well - a large short term
cross-current.
It appears to be a Distribution phase into a Range... where is the range?
That will depend on today's response to the FOMC's Meeting Minutes.
A larger Pullback is due, there are 7 Gaps below, how will today and Friday's
expiry trade out? High Probability - ranging to wreck Retail's Bearish positioning
with an expanded range now that 4337 was front run for SEP, DEC blew right thru
this level.
Apple's Gap @ 175 wants a fill, Tesla is a mental patient once again, seeking 1030
to 1050 in the break - this implies the 4337 may give way to a higher high into
the pivot for time, AUG 22nd to SEP 4th/5th.
_________________________________________________________________________
Slop, Chop, Pop & Drop - the RANGE.
To Distro more Junk & Co.
_________________________________________________________________________
Bonds are not buying it... as they are watching the inversion with disbelief as China
begins "enhanced lockdowns" and Global Economic activity implodes... yeah, naw, they
are calling Bullsh_t.
Inversion is 12 Bips away on the 1's - 2's on out to 5's checkmate - Inverted and although
they are ranging between 32 and 48 Bips... it is 100% persistent.
HGY - Denegerate disbelief, Bonds should not, in any way be acting as they are were this
a Bull Market or New Bull Market... it tales time to assert reality. It takes time to Distro
off all the Junk bought near the lows to be re-liquified at a time when Liquidity is simply
evaporating due to the crushing load of debt, both public and private from all corners.
Housing Starts were another disaster, retail sales - with Back to School may shows signs
of hope, false hope, but hope none the less, we shall see how the Cooks in the Kitchen
serve it up.
_________________________________________________________________________
RTY / ES / NQ / YM made extreme moves off the June 16th Pivot.
Today, we'll find out whether we consolidate in an expanding range or simply run through
resistance to higher levels - A rally no one understands, but FOMO Degens do not care.
September is ahead, statistically - the worst month of the year.
Funda's are not driving Junk & Co, greed and fear are. Mo $, Fear of Mo $ miss.
_________________________________________________________________________
In SUM, it's a dangerous Joke of an Equity Complex that will do far more harm.
Hyper BK Junk BBY, GME, AMC, COIN all finding Uber Luv. We've seen this time and again
and the ending... the song remains the same.
_________________________________________________________________________
Extreme Patience remains the stock in trade.
NQ Summation and OSC's are getting squeezed to extremes once again, point critical
has arrived.
The 2 Year (2YY Futures) will define the Pivot, where the Fed has a modicum of control
on the Curve.
TLT appears to be an "M" for Murder and not a New Bull Market, it can RT to 130, but given
the recent performance, that trade is growing long on hope, faith and success. The DX
is at a super critical level - with Eurodollar Futures GED.X cranking back down, somethings
going to Snap.
A great deal hinges on Crude Oil - 85 to 77 to 64 is the implied lower range over time... awhile.
Oil tends to lead the declines in Bear Markets as Utilities, Healthcare and Bonds are the rotation
on schedule.
_________________________________________________________________________
RESISTANCE AHEAD OF NEWS is where we are.
Nota
HYG, not HGY, apologies.Nota
2YY @ 3.33....Nota
DX Over Pivot 106.55 @ 106.655Nota
2/10 now @ 51 Bips... oh my.Nota
UK sees 10.1% to 17% Inflation across regions
Nota
1Yr 3.26 - High 3.33 InversionNota
Retail Sales 0.4 versus 0.1 Expected.Nota
Exports from China El Cliffo
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