EURUSD 13 Feb 2025 W7 - Intraday - US PPI, Tariffs & Peace Talks

This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 13 Feb 2025 W7 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:

1. Market Sentiment
   
2. 4H Chart Analysis
   
3. 15m Chart Analysis
   

Market Sentiment

The EUR/USD’s rise yesterday, despite hotter-than-expected U.S. CPI data, reflects a complex interplay of technical, geopolitical, and market sentiment factors.

Initial CPI Shock and Subsequent Rebound
The U.S. CPI rose 3.0% YoY (vs. 2.9% forecast), with core CPI hitting 0.3% MoM, triggering an immediate USD rally and EUR/USD dips.

Fed Policy Expectations vs. Market Positioning
Despite the CPI spike, Fed Chair Jerome Powell downplayed urgency for rate hikes, stating the Fed is “close but not there yet” on inflation. This tempered fears of aggressive tightening and limited USD upside.

Geopolitical De-escalation and Risk Sentiment
Reports of a potential territory swap deal reduced geopolitical risk aversion, weakening the USD’s safe-haven appeal and supporting the Euro.

Diverging Central Bank Policies
While the Fed’s cautious stance limited USD gains, the ECB’s restrictive policy (rates at 2.75% vs. Fed’s 4.5%) and improving Eurozone PMI data (manufacturing: 46.6; services: 51.3) supported EUR strength.

The EUR/USD rally was a corrective rebound driven by:

• Technical triggers after oversold conditions.
  
• Powell’s refusal to escalate hawkish rhetoric.
  
• Geopolitical optimism overshadowing inflation risks.
  
• Relative Eurozone resilience amid global trade uncertainties.
  

While CPI data initially favored the USD, the market’s focus shifted to policy stability and risk sentiment, allowing the Euro to recover. However, sustained EUR strength hinges on ECB rate cuts and tariff developments.

4H Chart Analysis


1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand
🔹Swing Continuation

2️⃣
🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH.

🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios (Previously I’d the following 2 scenarios where now I favors the 2nd scenario due to the impulsive nature of the move):

Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal)

Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal)

🔹The reaction from the recent 4H Demand Zone formed a Bullish CHoCH and a fresh Demand zone where price can pullback to after tapping the recent 4H Supply Zone.

3️⃣
🔹Expectations is set to Bullish targeting the Liquidity above the Feb 5 and then Jan 30 before any considerable pullback to then continue to target the Weak 4H Swing High.

15m Chart Analysis


1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹INT Bullish
🔹Sweeping Swing High

2️⃣
🔹With yesterday economic and geopolitics news, we had a mixed moves based on investors sentiment and their appetite to risk.

🔹INT structure continuing Bullish aligning with the 4H Bullish Swing continuation phase.

🔹Currently price in the process of creating a 15m Bullish Swing (BOS).

3️⃣
🔹With current Bullish INT Structure and the expected Bullish BOS on 15m and it’s alignment with the 4H Bullish Swing continuation phase, expectations is set to continue Bullish to facilitate the 4H Bullish move.

🔹Having in mind that after the 15m Bullish BOS we will have a pullback which will provide opportunities to Long as Shorts currently are not viable for me.