EURUSD 21 Feb 2025 W8 - Intraday Analysis - EU & US PMI Day!

This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD EURUSD for 21 Feb 2025 W8 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:

1. Market Sentiment
   
2. 4H Chart Analysis
   
3. 15m Chart Analysis
   

Market Sentiment

It's PMI Day today:
EU: Flash Manufacturing PMI - Flash Services PMI
US: Flash Manufacturing PMI - Flash Services PMI

The market still in the same sentiment detailed in my Weekly Analysis. Below a summary:

Short-Term Bias: Cautiously bullish for EUR/USD, driven by optimism over delayed tariffs, geopolitical progress, and hopes for softer inflation.

Key Risks:

• A hot PCE report reviving Fed hawkishness.
  
• Sudden tariff escalations or breakdowns in peace talks.
  

4H Chart Analysis


1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish (Reached Swing Extreme Demand)
🔹INT Bearish (Reached Extreme Supply)
🔹INT-INT Bullish (Reached EQ (50%)
🔹Swing Continuation

2️⃣
🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH.

🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios (Previously I’d the following 2 scenarios where now I favors the 2nd scenario due to the impulsive nature of the move):

Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal)

Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal)

🔹As expected yesterday, price managed to continue Bullish after reaching the INT-INT structure EQ (50%) in a solid impulsive move aligns with the Swing continuation move.

3️⃣
🔹Still expectation is set to continue Bullish targeting the Weak Swing High as long LTFs holds Bullish structures. Also, In my mind I’m not neglecting the current Bearish 4H INT structure and we already reached that structure extreme where we are getting the current corrective Bearish OF.

15m Chart Analysis


1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bullish
🔹Reached Swing EQ (50%)/Discount
🔹Swing Continuation Phase

2️⃣
🔹The 15m Bullish Swing pullback phase is still intact with continues Bearish INT structures.

🔹Price had reached Swing extreme demand in Swing Discount.

🔹With the recent Bearish iBOS, price had formed Liq. above the 15m Demand which was sept with the break of the Weak INT Low, mitigating the 15m Demand and forming a Bullish CHoCH to initiate the Bearish INT Structure Pullback.

🔹With the Bullish iBOS yesterday, we confirmed that the Swing Pullback phase may have ended and we are in a new Bullish continuation phase.

3️⃣
🔹With the recent iBOS, price is currently in Pullback Phase to HP POIs to then continue Bullish.

🔹As yesterday expectation of continuing Bullish, still on the expectations of price continuing Bullish targeting the 15m Weak Swing High / 4H Weak Swing High.