#202448 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futures
tl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures: Max bullish. New ath is done, now I have two upper targets left for this year. We have 2 decent upper bull trend lines where only the #1 target of 6300 fits. The other would be 6450 but too far and too low probability for now. Bears would need anything below 5850 to kill the rally.
Quote from last week:
comment: Bullish bias I had, bullish it was. Market looks like it wants up bad. Every dip is bought heavily on increasing volume. Time is now to get above 6100 or we won’t get it at all. Market is beyond overvalued, overbought and the poor late bulls are just arriving. Guess who will be left holding the bags again.
comment: Bullish bias I had, bullish it was. Again. Market wanted up and it got it. Is this stopping here? Probably not. Look for longs .
current market cycle: Bull trend
key levels: 5850 - 6150 (maybe even 6500)
bull case: Last hurrah. 6150 is my next target and if we don’t stop, 6500. Is this a bubble? Yes. Can you short this? No. Trends can go much further than anyone can imagine and your account can not sustain the drawdown of early shorts. Breakout is clear, as is the chart.
Invalidation is below 5850.
bear case: Non-starter is this here. Daily close below 5850, then I start looking at this with a bigger bullish eye.
Invalidation is above 6070.
outlook last week:
→ Last Sunday we traded 5987 and now we are at 6051. Perfect outlook.
short term: Bullish all the way. If market closes below 5900 I would turn neutral and daily close below 5800 would probably be the end of my bullish thesis and I turn bear.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-24: 6150 and 6500 are my last targets for the bulls before this bubble begins to pop or at least deflate.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Nothing.
sp500 e-mini futures: Max bullish. New ath is done, now I have two upper targets left for this year. We have 2 decent upper bull trend lines where only the #1 target of 6300 fits. The other would be 6450 but too far and too low probability for now. Bears would need anything below 5850 to kill the rally.
Quote from last week:
comment: Bullish bias I had, bullish it was. Market looks like it wants up bad. Every dip is bought heavily on increasing volume. Time is now to get above 6100 or we won’t get it at all. Market is beyond overvalued, overbought and the poor late bulls are just arriving. Guess who will be left holding the bags again.
comment: Bullish bias I had, bullish it was. Again. Market wanted up and it got it. Is this stopping here? Probably not. Look for longs .
current market cycle: Bull trend
key levels: 5850 - 6150 (maybe even 6500)
bull case: Last hurrah. 6150 is my next target and if we don’t stop, 6500. Is this a bubble? Yes. Can you short this? No. Trends can go much further than anyone can imagine and your account can not sustain the drawdown of early shorts. Breakout is clear, as is the chart.
Invalidation is below 5850.
bear case: Non-starter is this here. Daily close below 5850, then I start looking at this with a bigger bullish eye.
Invalidation is above 6070.
outlook last week:
short term:I want to join the bulls again. Need strong confirmation first though. Still no interest in selling as of now.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5987 and now we are at 6051. Perfect outlook.
short term: Bullish all the way. If market closes below 5900 I would turn neutral and daily close below 5800 would probably be the end of my bullish thesis and I turn bear.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-24: 6150 and 6500 are my last targets for the bulls before this bubble begins to pop or at least deflate.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Nothing.
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