2024-09-11 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaq
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - What a bear trap that was. Many decent double bottoms and then straight up melting. Many markets did not even touch the 3m 20ema on the move up. Bulls took full control again imo and I expect the highs to be retested, if not broken. SP500 the strongest of the ones I trade. Very very low chance of this being a bull trap after a bear trap and we reverse hard tomorrow but at this point of the chop, I won’t rule anything out.
nasdaq e-mini futures
comment: I try to stick to the only important pattern for me right now. Huge triangle, fits the unclear and erratic direction of the current price action. 19600 will likely be tested again because bulls just bought too strongly today. I’d be surprised if we break above 19700 though. If we do, no reason not to print 20000 or a new ath.
current market cycle: trading range - triangle on the daily chart
key levels: 18300 - 19800
bull case: Bulls trapped many bears today and printed a nasty reversal. I think most bears already gave up and we are free to trade to at least 19600. Problem with longs is the stop. Right now you would have to do 18600 and that’s just dumb. So should you wait for a pullback? Yes.
Invalidation is below 18900.
bear case: Do bears have any arguments until 19600? I don’t think so. There is a minor trend line running 19300ish but its weak. The bigger trend line from the ath is more likely and there I expect more resistance from the bears. If bears somehow manage to drop it below 18900 again, market is probably neutral again.
Invalidation is above 19300.
short term: max bullish for 19600, if bulls come around again tomorrow. Would like to see a pullback to the 1h or at least 15m ema.
medium-long term: This climactic blow off top is/was the grand finale of this bull trend. Perfect break above multiple patterns which I expect is a bull trap and we will test the various support lines next before the new bear trend will unfold over the next 3-9 months. —unchanged since 2024-06
current swing trade: Nope.
trade of the day: Buying 18600 was profitable since Monday.
tl;dr
Indexes - What a bear trap that was. Many decent double bottoms and then straight up melting. Many markets did not even touch the 3m 20ema on the move up. Bulls took full control again imo and I expect the highs to be retested, if not broken. SP500 the strongest of the ones I trade. Very very low chance of this being a bull trap after a bear trap and we reverse hard tomorrow but at this point of the chop, I won’t rule anything out.
nasdaq e-mini futures
comment: I try to stick to the only important pattern for me right now. Huge triangle, fits the unclear and erratic direction of the current price action. 19600 will likely be tested again because bulls just bought too strongly today. I’d be surprised if we break above 19700 though. If we do, no reason not to print 20000 or a new ath.
current market cycle: trading range - triangle on the daily chart
key levels: 18300 - 19800
bull case: Bulls trapped many bears today and printed a nasty reversal. I think most bears already gave up and we are free to trade to at least 19600. Problem with longs is the stop. Right now you would have to do 18600 and that’s just dumb. So should you wait for a pullback? Yes.
Invalidation is below 18900.
bear case: Do bears have any arguments until 19600? I don’t think so. There is a minor trend line running 19300ish but its weak. The bigger trend line from the ath is more likely and there I expect more resistance from the bears. If bears somehow manage to drop it below 18900 again, market is probably neutral again.
Invalidation is above 19300.
short term: max bullish for 19600, if bulls come around again tomorrow. Would like to see a pullback to the 1h or at least 15m ema.
medium-long term: This climactic blow off top is/was the grand finale of this bull trend. Perfect break above multiple patterns which I expect is a bull trap and we will test the various support lines next before the new bear trend will unfold over the next 3-9 months. —unchanged since 2024-06
current swing trade: Nope.
trade of the day: Buying 18600 was profitable since Monday.
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