Future predictions (2023)

17 nov 2022

Fundamental:
The inflation havent reached consumers yet, we have had money (savings) from Covid. We will see more "cold" winter now, as the inflation finally starts to decrease the purchasing power.

The inflation decreases but not quick enough and debt will be taken.

There is a possibility to a bigger recession if the debt is too much for banking systems (Unemployment rate, rate of interest, inflation, credit quality)

Technical:
Top to bottom percentages (S&P 500, approx every decade)

28% 60s/50% 70s/36% 80s/20% 90s/50% 20s/57% 21s (average 40%. 27% now, we have reasons to go lower)

These dates and prices are based on past, not super accurate, but with these there were least inconsistencies

Based on human psychology and cycles we tend to have (bigger picture, decade and century cycle), we havent seen that much yet.

We need bigger crisis or there will be next one coming, the cycle is in progress, there is "nothing" to recover from right now.

Sorry about narrow analysis, I am not the type to write own analysis, also there is no words or pictures to describe the full database I have on my mind!
Hopefully you still enjoy and comment your thoughts,
Best regards: Malmberg Jami