VIX is not dropping yet, more panic is possible

8 ago 2023

Since our last update, the SPX has largely remained below the resistance near $4,527. Concurrently, the VIX has not shown a notable decrease, hinting at the possibility of more market panic and weakness in the SPX. That, combined with the fact that Chinese stocks continue to roll over, leaves us on high alert, and we are growing increasingly bearish in the short term. To bolster the bearish odds, we want to see the SPX break below the support near $4,458. Furthermore, we would like to see another spike in VIX. Contrarily, to support a bullish thesis, we would like to see SPX move above the resistance at $4,527 and hold there (ideally, being accompanied by a drop in VIX below $14.30).

Illustration 1.01

Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of VIX.

Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Slightly bearish
Weekly time frame = Bullish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.

Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.

DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.

10 ago 2023

Nota

Today, VIX initially fell more than 8%. However, interestingly, it bounced off the 20-day SMA and erased all the losses (at least for now).