SP500 SPY Not finished yet

8 feb 2020

I still do not think we are finished with this internal wave 4. That looks like 5 waves down to me. If you analyze the structure of the recent push up, including using the futures price movement, I really think we are in a B wave up of a running flat. and another thing....it is unusual for price to have stopped just past the .236% retracement. Something doesn't look right to me. I am personally going to try my luck with TVIX again expecting price to move up a little more by the 12th. This is the 1 hour chart. So the broken lines (Blue = 50 DMA, Burgandy = 20 week MA, and red = 100 DMA)...the 20 week and 100 day should be at approximately the .382 retracement by the 25thish. This is just my view of what's coming next. It is easy to think with such a bullish push up that we are finished with this correction. I just don't see it yet. good luck. consider everything. GL

22 feb 2020

Nota

It is starting to look like I am correct. But still may be too early to tell. I do think we are starting the 5 waves down for a C wave of this 4th wave. I think that Monday and maybe Tuesday we will get a small move up for a 2 wave and then a strong 3rd wave. my target is the .382% Fib. There is also the 20 week MA that should be in that immediate area as well. If I am correct then this would only be the internal 4th wave and we should get a proportionally bigger 4th wave to start in late April to early May. That 4th wave should bring us down into June. This idea is much easier to see if you look at the DOW. The DOW shows a running flat ABC pattern. HOWEVER! there is a possibility that we are in a much more bullish move and that I am wrong. That bullish move suggests that we just completed a wave 1 and are in wave 2. I think next week or the early part of the following week should be the time frame when price action reaches the .618%. If it blows through that to the downside, then of course we will have our answer.
Another thing to look at. If you zoom out, you will notice that the move down in late January ended just past the .236% Fib which is unusual and also that move alone looks to small to be all there is to a wave 4. We shall see. GL

22 feb 2020

Nota

forgot to post my updated chart

20 mar 2020

Nota

I think its safe to say that this went much deeper than anyone anticipated. But where are we now. This is my opinion of what we have in store. First...focus on the larger black count. I still think the cycles are good indicators of approximate bottoms. The larger cycle says we don't bottom until mid June. However, it could be early June. Time will tell. But I do think we have a large time consuming 4th wave about to start.

20 mar 2020

Nota

zoomed in...this is where it gets difficult. I have two wave count ideas that I am watching. The first is the pink count. If that is the count then we are currently in an ending diagnol smaller degree 5th. The problem that I personally have with this count is that one of my smaller cycles ends arounf March 31st and the ending diagnol seems to be ready to end too soon. SO, I am leaning with the blue count. This blue count suggests that we are currently in an expanding flat, and tomorrow should start wave 3 up to reach the blue 4. That would work out nicely with the cycle. However....this market doesnt like to play nice lately. Tomorrow will hopefully anser a lot for me. I personally want the expanding flat because it allows for bigger swing moves and a lot more money to be made. good luck

20 mar 2020

Nota

bummed but it looks to me like the Blue count is out...
here is my update