Update:
Largely the same idea, just the timing changed.
I was wrong in that I initially thought we'd reject the $525-530 area and move down to my target of $480, then form a final high by the end of July/August around $550. However price decided it wanted to go straight higher to $550 area before it falls.
Think we'll see a final high be put in sometime in the next week, then we'll finally make the move lower to my target of $480.
The current move extending all the way to $550 gives me confidence that this is likely to be the top for the year and we shouldn't see a move back to this area.
While the index is going to start its decline into a bear market, certain individual stocks will still see new highs. The tricky part will be identifying which ones still have upside left. Largely I think we'll see the long-term reversals on the Mag 7 and money flow into value stocks.
Lots of beaten up charts that look good for upside soon. I'll start sharing those shortly.
Largely the same idea, just the timing changed.
I was wrong in that I initially thought we'd reject the $525-530 area and move down to my target of $480, then form a final high by the end of July/August around $550. However price decided it wanted to go straight higher to $550 area before it falls.
Think we'll see a final high be put in sometime in the next week, then we'll finally make the move lower to my target of $480.
The current move extending all the way to $550 gives me confidence that this is likely to be the top for the year and we shouldn't see a move back to this area.
While the index is going to start its decline into a bear market, certain individual stocks will still see new highs. The tricky part will be identifying which ones still have upside left. Largely I think we'll see the long-term reversals on the Mag 7 and money flow into value stocks.
Lots of beaten up charts that look good for upside soon. I'll start sharing those shortly.
Nota
Unlikely that we see the upper resistance (at least for now). After today's price action, I'm leaning to the downside here.Nota
Okay, 50/50 as of today. If we do hit the resistance level tomorrow, I'll probably add to my put position.Nota
Not sure if we'll get all the way up to $552. Could see it double topping here. Might want to start scaling into puts...September puts are safest.
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Could see the possibility of hitting the top resistance, especially if we get a positive close today. Let's see what happens into today and Friday.Nota
Bought Oct 18 $480 puts at open. Resistance finally tagged.Nota
Also bought some $556P for 7/12Nota
Looking like the idea will end up being correct. Although we broke above resistance, if we break back down through the upper box and close below it, it'll be extremely bearish for SPY in the near term.See the top of
CMG as an example. Same thing happened, a fakeout above resistance, then a break down below and now down 15% off the highs already.Will continue to watch here price action, but based on weakness, that's my base case from here.
Combine that with Demark 13s on 60, 4hr, daily and weekly timeframes. Pretty confident in this move marking the top.
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Also liking the idea that this top will mark the flow into value stocks. You can see the early signs of that beginning w/ IWM up on the day while QQQ is down big. This chart starting to reverse after a brief move above the trendline: 
I'll be posting some interesting charts that I've been watching over the next few weeks (there may be short term moves down in them, but they're great stocks to buy and hold over the coming years).
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Welp got the move down through the box. Price is currently sitting at the lower support line. I wouldn't take the put position yet (especially w/ some tech earnings after the bell), there's a chance that we can bounce one more time here before seeing continuation.That said, I think we're a few days away from seeing a sustained move lower. Let's see.
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Looking at the chart, I think we could see something similar to what happened before the covid drop. We see a big push here higher, up to $565-567, then see a sustained fall after.The reason for it would be there's a gap on the 1hr chart that I think will get filled before dropping further. There a rising wedge we broke down from and making it back up to that area would retest that rising wedge as resistance. It would make the maximum number of people go long w/ a new ATH, then we see a continued dump lower afterwards.
Just an idea as of now, we could have a small bounce and then keep falling or we could just keep falling.
Keeping all ideas open right now, but the bounce on that support line opens the possibility for a big fake out now.
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Price now below support. 2 scenarios I see:1. We continue lower here. Look for the retest of the lower support line as resistance to confirm this move. A rejection of $553 would confirm it.
2. I think we could see a big spike higher on earnings (let's say NFLX beats). I think that would give us one more move higher to fool everyone. Levels I'm looking for rejections from 562, 565, 567. Then we fall lower.
I don't really see a path for continuation higher here. We'd now have to break back above the box, retest it as support, then continue higher for that to happen. Possibility, but less than 10% chance IMO. The chart already has too much damage done to it.
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Scenario 1 looks to be playing out.Nota
As long as price holds below this resistance at $556.76, price is heading down.Nota
Rejected. Down we go.Nota
Added some 
500P for 8/16Nota
The above options now up 17%, added 8/1 $520 puts this morning too and some $270 puts for 9/20 (high risk, but extremely cheap and should be great if we see a large move down).Nota
Already printing. $520 puts up 100% now, $270 up as well.Nota
$520P + 180%$500 +88%
$270 +50%
Didn't sell any. Still think we're going to see a crash like move play out until around the 31st. Then can see the possibility of bouncing from there.
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Upside bounce should be over. I see many people calling the bottom because of one small counter trend move. Don't think we bottom until $476.Then we should see a big bounce after that.
Until then, I stay short.
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Next week should see heavy selling in the beginning of the week. I have a pivot on the 1st. Base case right now is that we selloff into Wednesday morning or so, then bounce after into the first or second week of August.
Then the real selloff begins after that.
Let's see...
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Seeing continuation to the downside. Started shaving off some profits on the options I'm up over 100% on. Took half off so I can trade w/o risk.I do think it's likely that w/ earnings and the fed meeting tomorrow, we see more continuation to the downside.
I don't see a bounce until later this week or early next week.
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Glad I took profits yesterday on a lot of my put positions. Retesting the bottom of the box now. Don't think we break back into it, but we shall see what happens tomorrow. Will likely add back some more puts in the morning.
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Broke back down:Added some $553P for today
$550, 549P for 8/5
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Exited $553P +150%Leaving the other two open. Could still see more downside today, but wanted to lock in 150% gain. Not bad for 30 minutes.
Have the other two if we get more downside today.
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I don't want to get ahead of myself, but I do think a larger move down is coming... Feels to me like we're going to get a covid style selloff that takes us well below $480.
Lower targets on the chart, including my buy zone (you'll need to scroll down). Going to take it day by day, but VIX starting to react. Potential war in the middle east...
I think this month is going to lead to lots of downside and that we bottom in Sept/Oct.
I'll keep updating as it plays out.
This chart shares the bigger picture view (which I know looks crazy at this point, but based on everything I see, I think it actually has a 50% probability of playing out):
Nota
People conditioned to buy the dip especially after the bounce yesterday, but this time it's not going to work. Will take profit on some of my puts and spot vol when
UVXY hits $44. Should happen tomorrow or Monday.You know the selling is real this time because vol is exploding higher.
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Closed my $549P just because it was up 300%. Left one runner 550p. All other puts I've kept open.Nota
Glad I left the other runner, gap down open this morning. I'm reading that people are already trying to buy this dip, I think we have a lot further to go down today.I might look for some calls towards the end of the day or on Monday for Aug 9th or Aug 16 (just to be safe) to offset my puts as I do think we'll get a bounce next week. I'll likely take a decent amount of profit on my puts today or Monday. Again, I'm looking for
UVXY to hit $44 as the trigger to take profits.As of now, I'm thinking we likely have a short term bottom today or Monday, then have a counter trend rally until the 9th, then fall again after that.
Good luck trading today.
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Took profit on the $549P +680%. I started shaving off some profits on short term options. Still think we see more downside into next week, we could bounce Monday or Wednesday.
Still looking for $44-49 on UVXY to sell more.
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Also locked in half of the 500P I took at the very beginning +331%. Want to hold some incase we see more downside but at least risk free.I'm going to keep holding all of the $270P for September. Those are up 446% so far but we have time and I think those hit.
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Added some 9/13 $350PNota
Up 56% so far, I do think that was likely the bounce and that it's all down hill from here.I'm fully allocated to puts now.
Likely going to let these run until the end of August before I start taking serious profits.
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Update here: We ended up bouncing more than I thought we would but I'm already fully in profit on all of my puts so can afford to wait as I'm riding all free positions and expirations aren't until end of September - Jan.In this $536-541 range, we're retesting the structure we broke down from last week. I'd expect continuation to the downside after this has been tested.
Next pivot is on Thursday. Let's see what happens then.
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So far, $541 holding as resistance. Let's see how the price action shapes up into the end of day and into tomorrow. If we can retest $541 tomorrow again, will likely take another large put position at that level.Nota
Bought 30 SPY 09/30/2024 400.00 P
5 SPY 08/15/2024 542.00 P
at open
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Added another 200 SPY 09/20/2024 270.00 P
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Might have to reassess my positions depending on what happens the rest of the day. Flows are bearish but price broke higher this morning so have to be open to the idea that the highs get retested before falling.Going to see what happens with price action the rest of the day.
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Going to keep holding puts despite the move up. My 1DTE will likely expire worthless unless we can sell off by EOD, if not, all good. The reasons I want to keep holding all of my other puts:1. We're tapping the top end of bollinger band on SPY which usually sends price opposite direction. I could potentially see SPY getting up to $554-$555 though.
2. RSI on many of my charts also look to be topping out.
3. Today is a pivot day which usually marks a low or high, being we've moved up strong this morning, probability favors a high.
Let's see
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The other possibility is that we do go all the way up to $567-568 before the actual larger move down happens. I might take some calls to hedge my positioning just incase that happens.Nota
Ended up buying some $560C for 8/20 just incase we make a run at the highs again. If it were to happen, that should be the final move higher.Nota
Closed hedges at +100%. May still get a little bit more upside, but I think tomorrow is likely a turning point and I don't want to have any more decay.Nota
So far, looking like we did see the turning point this morning. I added $560P that expire tomorrow, up 35% on those already. Then I have lots of SPY puts w/ expirations into Sep and Oct.I do think that now we should see the larger move down from here.
How low we go is TBD, but the next big pivot is on Sep 6, so going to watch price action into that date.
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Took profits on the $560P at +65%Nota
Alright two possibilities here:1. We bounce up to $563-567 before the big move down.
2. We continue selling off here.
I'm not taking any short term positions. Just going to watch price action play out.
I'm fully allocated to puts and don't really care which path the market chooses next. Just going to be patient and wait for the larger move.
Volatility starting to show signs of strength again. All the signs are starting to show a big move down is coming again.
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$563 tagged. I thought we might go a little bit higher, but USDJPY started selling off again. I think the carry trade could take down the market again.Vol is picking up rapidly. Let's see how the rest of the day plays out.
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The upside levels that I was looking for didn't get hit this morning before we dropped, now market is drifting higher. These are the levels to the upside:
$563.73
$565.02
$567.65
Possibility those still get hit. Again Tuesday is the next pivot. I could see Monday moving higher towards those targets then falling the rest of the week.
Let's see.
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Okay, finally think we're getting close to the move to $480. Should happen in the next 1.5 weeks IMO. Let's see.Nota
Market needs to stay under $549.30 or so to see continued downside.Nota
If it can get under $540, selling should accelerate.Nota
Again, this is an important level for price to hold to stay bearish. Let's see what happens the rest of the day.I'll question my bias if we don't see more downside by end of week.
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