Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 21–25, 2025

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🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:

🇺🇸 Tariff Fallout Deepens: Markets remain volatile as President Trump's recent tariff policies continue to unsettle investors. The S&P 500 is down 14% from its February peak, with recession fears escalating. Economists now estimate a 45% chance of a downturn within the next year, up from 25% previously. ​

🚗 Tesla's Anticipated Earnings: Tesla is set to report Q1 earnings on Tuesday. Options pricing suggests a potential 9.3% stock movement post-report. Investors are keenly awaiting updates on AI initiatives, including the robotaxi network and the Optimus humanoid robot.

🛢️ Oilfield Services Under Pressure: Halliburton, Baker Hughes, and SLB will release earnings this week amid declining oil prices and tariff-induced cost pressures. Analysts warn that sustained crude prices below $60 could lead to a 20% drop in domestic oilfield activity. ​

📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Monday, April 21:
No major economic data releases scheduled.​

📅 Tuesday, April 22:

🏠 Existing Home Sales (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 4.20 million
Previous: 4.38 million
Provides insight into the housing market's health and consumer demand.​

📅 Wednesday, April 23:

📊 S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI (9:45 AM ET):
Forecast: Manufacturing 49.5; Services 51.0
Previous: Manufacturing 49.2; Services 50.8
Indicates the economic health of the manufacturing and services sectors.​

📈 New Home Sales (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 675,000
Previous: 662,000
Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold, reflecting housing market trends.​

📘 Federal Reserve Beige Book (2:00 PM ET):
Provides a summary of current economic conditions across the 12 Federal Reserve Districts.

📅 Thursday, April 24:

📉 Durable Goods Orders (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: -0.5%
Previous: 1.3%
Reflects new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for delivery of factory hard goods.​

📈 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: 230,000
Previous: 223,000
Indicates the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time.​

📅 Friday, April 25:

📊 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 76.5
Previous: 77.2
Assesses consumer confidence in economic activity.​

⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.​
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