Time to sell SPY/Buy VIX imo.
Hi folks!
If you believe that technical analysis has any prediction power at all (I highly doubt that it has in any other environment than highly speculative ones due to self-fulfilling prophecy)
and you are net long the S&P500, then you might want to rethink.
- Very soon (possibly) testing broken trendline from march 2020
- Massive divergence on volume since trend broke (Volume follows VIX - not a good sign!)
- Massive divergence on RSI
- VIX at very low levels
In addition to this, the money flow indicator - usually a sound fundamental indicator - shows a serious divergence.
Add that to the macroeconomic picture and the pricing (much more important than the other factors I just stated),
and it would be a rather compelling case for selling the broad U.S. stock market.
I got rid of my last long exposure to U.S. stocks now and loaded up on VIX futures (VIXY) throughout this week - currently holding 85% (!)
of my portfolio in such contracts-
DYOR.
NFA.
I wish you all well! :)
Never take the word of others as a given - and never take advise from someone without skin in the game.
If you believe that technical analysis has any prediction power at all (I highly doubt that it has in any other environment than highly speculative ones due to self-fulfilling prophecy)
and you are net long the S&P500, then you might want to rethink.
- Very soon (possibly) testing broken trendline from march 2020
- Massive divergence on volume since trend broke (Volume follows VIX - not a good sign!)
- Massive divergence on RSI
- VIX at very low levels
In addition to this, the money flow indicator - usually a sound fundamental indicator - shows a serious divergence.
Add that to the macroeconomic picture and the pricing (much more important than the other factors I just stated),
and it would be a rather compelling case for selling the broad U.S. stock market.
I got rid of my last long exposure to U.S. stocks now and loaded up on VIX futures (VIXY) throughout this week - currently holding 85% (!)
of my portfolio in such contracts-
DYOR.
NFA.
I wish you all well! :)
Never take the word of others as a given - and never take advise from someone without skin in the game.
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