Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 14–18, 2025

🔮 Weekly SPY / SPX Scenarios for July 14–18, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍

⚖️ Powell Faces ‘Epic’ Trade‑Inflation Dilemma
Former Fed economists warn Chair Powell is navigating nearly unprecedented terrain: tariffs are pushing up prices even as the labor market cools. Striking a balance between inflation control and growth support remains a formidable challenge

📊 Tariff‑Driven Inflation May Peak This Week
June’s CPI is expected to show a 0.3% month-on-month increase, potentially lifting core inflation to ~2.7%—its highest level in 18 months. These data will heavily influence the Fed’s decision-making process

🏦 Big Bank Earnings Kick Off
Earnings season begins with JPMorgan (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Citigroup ($C) reporting. Strong results could offset trade and inflation anxieties; expect volatility in financials

📈 Goldman Sees Broader S&P Rally
Goldman Sachs projects the S&P 500 to climb roughly 11% to 6,900 by mid‑2026, underpinned by firm earnings and expected Fed rate cuts. But warns that breadth remains narrow, increasing downside risk without robust participation

⚠️ Summer Volatility Risk Lingers
Deutsche Bank warns that summer’s low liquidity and the looming Aug 1 tariff re‑imposition deadline may spark sudden market turbulence—even amid bullish sentiment

📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊

📅 Monday, July 14

Quiet start—markets digest back-to-back CPI, tariffs, and clearing post‑earnings.

📅 Tuesday, July 15

8:30 AM ET – Consumer Price Index (June)
Watch for potential tariff impact in CPI; core inflation data are crucial.

8:30 AM ET – Core CPI (June)

10:00 AM ET – Empire State Manufacturing Survey (July)
Early view on Northeast factory trends.

📅 Wednesday, July 16

8:30 AM ET – Producer Price Index (June)
Wholesale inflation signals to validate CPI trends.

10:00 AM ET – Housing Starts & Building Permits (June)

📅 Thursday, July 17

8:30 AM ET – Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims
A gauge on labor-market resilience amid talks of cooling.

📅 Friday, July 18

10:00 AM ET – Federal Reserve Beige Book Release
Fed’s regional economic snapshot ahead of next FOMC.

⚠️ Disclaimer:
This is for educational/informational use only—not financial advice. Consult a licensed professional before investing.

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