USDCAD 04/06 – BoC Rate Decision Ahead

USDCAD 04/06 – BoC Rate Decision Ahead | Will the Market Break Higher or Reverse From 1.3820?
The USDCAD pair is trading around the 1.3700 area as markets prepare for the upcoming Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate decision. Price action shows potential for a breakout, but macro risks remain high.

🌍 MACRO OUTLOOK
BoC Expected to Hold Rates
Analysts widely expect the BoC to keep the interest rate unchanged at 2.75%, marking the third consecutive pause. Inflation has slipped below 2%, supporting the case for a dovish tone.

Trade Policy in Focus
With growing global uncertainties and Trump’s trade stance back in the spotlight, BoC Governor Tiff Macklem is expected to address policy risks, especially related to tariffs.

Market Sentiment
USD is mildly weaker after soft ISM data.
CAD remains near YTD highs but sensitive to policy commentary.

📉 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – H2 Chart
Price is forming a potential double bottom near the 1.3693 zone – a key structure support.

Resistance sits at 1.3725 – 1.3757. A confirmed breakout could lead to a test of 1.3824, the recent high.

Failure to hold 1.3690 may expose deeper downside toward 1.3620–1.3600.

🔑 KEY LEVELS TO WATCH
🟢 BUY ZONE: 1.3693 – 1.3700
SL: 1.3670
TP: 1.3725 → 1.3757 → 1.3800 → 1.3824

🔴 SELL ZONE: 1.3824 – 1.3830
SL: 1.3850
TP: 1.3780 → 1.3750 → 1.3700 → 1.3650

🎯 TRADE STRATEGY
If BoC holds rates with a dovish bias, USDCAD may rally sharply toward 1.3824 and potentially higher.

If BoC surprises with hawkish comments, CAD strength may push the pair lower, targeting the 1.36 handle.

Traders should be cautious around 1.3690 – this is the pivot zone for the week.

📌 CONCLUSION
“The BoC’s decision may already be priced in – but the true volatility could come from Governor Macklem’s press conference. Any hint regarding Trump’s trade policies could trigger sharp moves. Stick to clean key levels and protect your capital.”