Gold, metals and oil are definitely back and looking very strong
Gold was falling as real yields were going up, but now that that trend has reversed gold is looking better. Gold has successfully broken and retested many key levels + several important moving averages and pivots. In the past I thought 1680 would break even just in the short term and it is still a possibility, but looks less likely at the moment.
Currently Gold is at a bit of resistance and could pull back a little bit. The key level is 1980 where it could have a major trap and then a decent correction before going higher. Yes there are some issue with gold too, especially as it is still below its 2011 ATH, but once it starts closing above it again things could change rapidly. Metals overall seem really strong, with Silver gearing for a big breakout although there is still a chance of failure at the resistance above. Palladium still going hard and seems relentless. Copper at its 2011 ATHs still looking decent although it might pullback a little bit. Oil although not a metal, is very important and it also looks extremely explosive. The upside for oil at this point almost seems unlimited. The bear market for oil ended with that insane capitulation where prices went negative on the front month contract. For many reasons the production of oil has taken a big hit and now that demand is coming back, and coming back strong especially due to money printing. So from here Oil could easily hit 100$/barrel by EOY.
Point is that inflation is rising, commodities are rising and will potentially keep on rising mostly due to supply shortages, but also due to excess speculation and money printing. Gold might not be the best bet in this situation, but it is definitely an asset to own as insurance. Maybe the downturn in cryptocurrencies also had to do with people switching back to Gold and other assets. Maybe Gold is a signal that something bad is coming and that thing might be high inflation or even bad deflation that could bring issues to the system. Either way dips are for buying in these assets.
Currently Gold is at a bit of resistance and could pull back a little bit. The key level is 1980 where it could have a major trap and then a decent correction before going higher. Yes there are some issue with gold too, especially as it is still below its 2011 ATH, but once it starts closing above it again things could change rapidly. Metals overall seem really strong, with Silver gearing for a big breakout although there is still a chance of failure at the resistance above. Palladium still going hard and seems relentless. Copper at its 2011 ATHs still looking decent although it might pullback a little bit. Oil although not a metal, is very important and it also looks extremely explosive. The upside for oil at this point almost seems unlimited. The bear market for oil ended with that insane capitulation where prices went negative on the front month contract. For many reasons the production of oil has taken a big hit and now that demand is coming back, and coming back strong especially due to money printing. So from here Oil could easily hit 100$/barrel by EOY.
Point is that inflation is rising, commodities are rising and will potentially keep on rising mostly due to supply shortages, but also due to excess speculation and money printing. Gold might not be the best bet in this situation, but it is definitely an asset to own as insurance. Maybe the downturn in cryptocurrencies also had to do with people switching back to Gold and other assets. Maybe Gold is a signal that something bad is coming and that thing might be high inflation or even bad deflation that could bring issues to the system. Either way dips are for buying in these assets.
Trade chiuso manualmente:
Gold hasn't shown the strength I'd have wanted it to show. Initially behaved as expected but there is no follow through despite the USD being kinda weak and bonds going higher while inflation is low. Maybe I am over reacting but until I see a close above 1940 I remain cautious.
