Probability: Bull/Bear Dominance | Ratio | Bar CountIntro
What's the probability of the next bar being red? How about green? Well, there are many ways to quantify the probability but I am presenting just one stupidly simple (but generally accurate) way to measure it.
Strangely... no one has done this before that I can find. I try to check if someone else has done it first (Pro Tip: Plz do this. We honestly don't need the 5 trillionth "MTF MAs" script.)
Indicator
Its a basic counting script, but the nice thing about this script is you choose the time range. It starts counting from a specified point of your choosing. It counts up the bull bars and bear bars separately.
Bull Bar = Close > Open
Bear Bar = Open > Close
You can look at them in sum or as a ratio of Green Bars : Red Bars
I know, it's almost too simple. But, here's some interesting food for thought from a layman to fellow laymen.
Analysis/Edge
Between the time of candle open and candle close, the price can do one of three things, close higher, close lower, or close equal to.
'Equal to' is rare on higher timeframes in liquid markets and it provides no useful information. Thus, we'll nix it for purposes of this conversation.
So boil it down. The next candle is going to be a red candle or a green candle.
It is popular to refer to the general probability of most candles as 50/50, with trader's mission in life being to seek an edge that tilts the probabilities slightly in their favor.
The truth is the odds are probably never actually 50/50, but knowing the precisely correct probability is unknowable, just like the accuracy of a weather forecast is inherently unknowable. What we're trying to do as traders is develop systems that give us predictive probabilistic outcomes that correspond with future realities based on various ways of measuring the market (most often heavily dependent on the past).
The reality is that the market can be measured in many, many different ways. The important thing is that you measure it in a way that is accurate, relevant, and universally applicable.
So look at this indicator here:
You start from a point in time on a chosen timeframe and you put red bars in the red column, green in the green column, and count them all up.
Then you make a ratio, in this case, Green : Red.
What the ratio shows you is the percentage of green bars compared to red bars . At the time of this screenshot, the 4h on the SPX starting from the 2020 bottom is showing a ratio of 1.2.
This means there have been 20% more green bars than there have been red bars.
Now there are 1,000 directions you can take this discussion. What is the overall volatility picture, the size of the red bars vs the green bars, what happens if you miss out on the 5 biggest green bars... so many more variables that you would need to take into account to develop a true edge from this idea. But, the bottom line fact (which is what I like about this) is that we can take this data and say with a certain level of confidence that on the SPX you have a 20% better shot at making money (otherwise stated there's a 60/40 chance) if you open a LONG trade at the beginning of a 4h candle than if you open a short.
That's useful information. One could argue that it's not a complete strategy in and of itself (although I bet it could be with a couple of additional parameters). But I can tell you, based on the 4h candles in the 2020 rally if you open a short, the deck is stacked against you from this perspective. And we can actually somewhat demonstrate this to be true for our dataset because we can look at the price history and see who likely made more money. The SPX is up 1000pts off the bottom. So, thus far, for this dataset, it rings true; Bulls have been doing way better in the latter part of 2020 than the bears.
Conclusion
Predictive systems with a small number of variables tend to be more robust than a system with many variables when applied to a complex system. I may keep updating this script if people like it and determine aspects like population vs sample size, confidence intervals, volatility, and exclusion of outliers. For now, this is just an opening foray into the basic idea of how we can establish an edge in the markets. It really can be this simple.
Thanks for Reading.
Cerca negli script per "spx"
Options Liquidity Confluence v1.1Options Liquidity Confluence (RVOL + Squeeze + OBV + PDH/PDL + VWAP) v1.1
By Miguel Licero
When trading options sometimes i experience that i read the price action right, movement goes to my favor, but contract value not necessarily goes up. This happens because of these 3 things:
Lack of directional conviction
Lack of liquidity injection
Lack of implied volatility shift
So in my personal case this is somewhat frustrating as the result of the operation is not what i expected. So after researching several strategies i tried to put together a tool that makes a humble attempt to capture liquidity expansion. So this script blends:
Relative Volume (RVOL) → participation/liquidity
“Squeeze” release (Bollinger Bands vs. Keltner Channels) → volatility expansion
OBV slope → aggressor flow proxy
Key levels → Prev-Day High/Low and VWAP
Optional EMA bias filter
This indicator tries to answer: “Will this move actually expand option premiums?”
It fires a Long or Short confluence when ALL the following are true (configurable):
Liquidity present → RVOL ≥ your threshold (default 1.8× the average).
Volatility release → the BB/Keltner Squeeze has just released (compression → expansion). Optionally requires BB width to be expanding.
Aggressor flow → OBV slope in the trade direction (linreg slope up for long, down for short).
Location/structure → Agreement at key levels:
- Long: price above VWAP and interacting with PDH (previous-day high).
- Short: price below VWAP and interacting with PDL (previous-day low).
Optional trend bias → EMA 21 vs EMA 50 filter.
When confluence hits, you’ll see a label/arrow and can also trigger alerts.
How to use it
1. Load on your 1-min or 5-min SPX/SPY chart.
It’s designed for intraday, especially 0DTE/near-dated options.
2. Tune thresholds by instrument/timeframe:
RVOL: For SPX/ES during NY session, 1.5–2.5 is typical.
Squeeze: Leave defaults initially (BB 20/2, KC 20/1.5).
OBV slope length: 21–55 bars works well; shorter = more sensitive.
3. Entry idea (example, SHORT):
Wait for short confluence as price breaks PDL (your chart event at ~11:54).
Confirm below VWAP, RVOL ≥ threshold, squeeze release, and OBV slope down.
Take ATM–slightly OTM puts with a predefined stop (e.g., back above VWAP or invalidation level) and a profit-taking bracket.
4. Avoid dead zones:
If RVOL < threshold or squeeze not released, it’s often the “hold your horses” phase — price may move but premiums don’t expand.
PLEASE USE AT YOUR OWN RISK
MomentumQ DashMomentumQ Dash – Multi-Timeframe & Watchlist Dashboard
The MomentumQ Dash is a professional dashboard-style indicator designed to help traders quickly evaluate market conditions across multiple timeframes and assets.
Unlike single-signal tools, MomentumQ Dash consolidates market regime, buy/sell conditions, and pre-signal alerts into an easy-to-read table, allowing traders to stay focused on actionable setups without flipping between charts.
All signals displayed in MomentumQ Dash are derived from the MomentumQ Oscillator (MoQ Osci) , our proprietary tool designed to identify momentum shifts and adaptive buy/sell conditions. By integrating these signals into a dashboard format, MomentumQ Dash provides a structured overview of the market that is both comprehensive and easy to interpret.
A unique advantage of this tool is the dual-table system:
A timeframe table that tracks the current symbol across five user-defined timeframes.
A watchlist table that monitors up to five different assets on the same timeframe.
This combination gives traders a complete market overview at a glance, supporting both intraday and higher-timeframe strategies.
Key Features
1. Multi-Timeframe Signal Dashboard
Tracks buy, sell, pre-buy, and pre-sell conditions for up to 5 configurable timeframes.
Highlights market regime (Bull/Bear) with background colors for quick visual recognition.
Displays the last detected signal and how many bars ago it occurred.
2. Watchlist Asset Table
Monitor up to 5 custom symbols (e.g., indices, commodities, crypto pairs) in one view.
Independent timeframe selection for the watchlist table.
Clean symbol display with exchange prefixes automatically removed.
3. Flexible Layout & Theme Integration
Choice of table position (Top Right, Middle Right, Bottom Right) for each table.
Light/Dark mode setting for seamless chart integration.
Compact, minimal design to avoid clutter.
4. MoQ Osci Signal Engine
Signals are powered by the MomentumQ Oscillator (MoQ Osci), which uses adaptive momentum analysis.
Identifies early pre-signals (potential setup zones) as well as confirmed buy/sell events.
Helps traders recognize transitions in market structure without lagging indicators.
How It Works
Timeframe Analysis
The indicator calculates MoQ Osci signals on each timeframe.
When price deviates beyond upper/lower adaptive thresholds, buy/sell signals are generated.
Pre-signals are displayed when price approaches these zones, offering early alerts.
Trend Regime Detection
Regime is derived from MoQ Osci’s momentum distance relative to its adaptive mean.
Bull regime = positive momentum bias; Bear regime = negative momentum bias.
This provides a simple but reliable context for trade direction.
Watchlist Tracking
Signals are calculated identically for each custom symbol selected by the user.
Results are presented in a compact table, making it easy to spot alignment or divergence across markets.
How to Use This Indicator
Use the Timeframe Table to align intraday setups with higher-timeframe context.
Monitor the Watchlist Table to track correlated assets (e.g., SPX, NDX, VIX, Oil, Gold).
Pay attention to pre-buy / pre-sell warnings for early setup confirmation.
Use the “Last” column to quickly check the most recent signal and its timing.
Combine with your existing price action strategy to validate entries and exits.
This indicator works on all TradingView markets: Forex, Stocks, Crypto, Futures, and Commodities.
Why Is This Indicator Valuable?
Provides a complete dashboard view of market conditions in one place.
Combines multi-timeframe confirmation with multi-asset monitoring .
Signals are based on the proven MoQ Osci tool , ensuring consistency across strategies.
Saves time and reduces the need to constantly switch charts.
Fully customizable to match any trading workflow.
Example Trading Approaches
1. Multi-Timeframe Alignment
Wait for a buy signal on the lower timeframe (e.g., 15m) while the higher timeframe (1h/4h) is in Bull regime.
Enter long with higher-timeframe confirmation, improving trade probability.
2. Cross-Market Confirmation
If SPX and NDX both trigger sell signals while VIX shows a buy, this may confirm risk-off sentiment.
Use this confluence to support trade decisions in equities or correlated markets.
3. Pre-Signal Monitoring
Watch for PB (Pre-Buy) or PS (Pre-Sell) warnings before confirmed signals.
These can highlight potential breakout or reversal zones before they occur.
Disclaimer
This indicator is a technical analysis tool and does not guarantee profits.
It should be used as part of a complete trading plan that includes risk management.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
VIX Stoch RSI Oscillator [HUD Box + Compression]vix stoch rsi Oscillator
watch volatility without switching charts,
gives signal based off fib levels 0-100 / volatility,
emoji box to show signal,
HUD Box: emoji-coded tactical feedback
bounce 100 "💥 Expansion" :
bounce 0.8 "🔴 Overbought" :
bounce 0.618 "📉 Distribution" :
bounce 0.5 "🧠 Midline" :
bounce 0.382 "📈 Accumulation" :
bounce 0.2 "🟢 Oversold" :
bounce0.0 "💣 Expansion" : "⚪ Neutral"
Tiger EMA/STOCH
This logic checks if the oscillator is trending above or below its 48-period EMA,
If above, it paints the line GREEN🟢 (bullish),
If below, it paints it RED🔴 (bearish),
If compression is active, it overrides both with purple🟣 to highlight tactical squeeze conditions,
⚠️WARNING⚠️
ALWAYS REMEMBER THIS CHART IS VIX/USD
IN MOST CASES SPY MOVES VICE VERSA
I AM NOT RESPOSIBLE FOR YOUR OWN ACTIONS/TRADE IDEAS
AMEX:USD
TVC:VIX
SP:SPX
NY Session First 15m Range ORB Strategy first 15m high&low NY session
let you know the high and low of first 15m and the first candle is sitck out of the line you can ride on the wave to make moeny no bul OANDA:XAUUSD SP:SPX
Timeless Command | QuantEdgeB🔍 Overview
Timeless Command is a multi-asset, multi-timeframe “sentiment dashboard” built around a custom Universal Strategy. It fuses two independent proprietary oscillators into one normalized signal, then snapshots that signal across six user-chosen assets and six user-chosen timeframes—right on your price chart. You instantly see whether Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold, the U.S. Dollar Index, the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq are “Bullish” or “Bearish” from the 2-day down to the 15-minute horizon, plus an overall bias and bar-color overlays.
✨ Key Features
• 🧠 Universal Strategy
o Combines two independent strategic modules into a single oscillator.
o Applies upper/lower thresholds to generate Long/Short/Neutral signals.
• 🌐 Multi-Asset, Multi-TF Grid
o Up to six symbols (e.g. BTC, ETH, SPX, NDX, GOLD, DXY).
o Six configurable timeframes (days, hours, minutes).
o Automatic conversion of “4H” → “240” minutes for seamless request.security calls.
• 📊 Live Sentiment Table
o Arrow icons per asset/timeframe (“⬆️” vs “⬇️”).
o Per-asset average bias (“Bullish” / “Bearish” / “Neutral”), color-coded.
o Clean, right-aligned table overlay with asset labels and timeframe headers.
• 🎨 Chart Overlays
o Bar coloring driven by the first asset’s average TPI bias.
o Two EMAs (default 12/21) filled to show trend direction.
o Optional mini info table to explain bar-color logic.
⚙️ How It Works
1. Signal Calculation
o Applies thresholds (±0.1) to yield discrete signals from a Universal Strategy: +1 (long), –1 (short), 0 (neutral).
2. Multi-TF Signal Gathering
o For each asset, the script uses request.security to pull the TPI on each selected timeframe, locking values at bar close for consistency.
o Converts each reading into a binary direction (up/down).
3. Averaging & Labeling
o Averages the six directional values per asset to gauge overall bias.
o Renders a “Bullish” or “Bearish” label (or “Neutral” if exactly zero).
4. Visual Overlay
o Bar Color: The chart’s candles recolor based on the first asset’s average bias—blue for bullish, orange for bearish, gray for neutral.
o EMAs: Two exponential moving averages sweep the chart, filled to highlight trending regimes.
5. Dashboard Table
o Rows = assets, columns = timeframes + “Average” column.
o Each cell shows an arrow icon with background shading.
o Last column spells out the per-asset average bias in styled text and color.
🎯 Who Should Use It
• Macro Traders who want a quick cross-market heatmap.
• Multi-Asset Strategists balancing exposure across crypto, equities, FX and commodities.
• Systematic & Discretionary players looking for unified, threshold-based signals.
• Risk Managers needing a real-time sentinel on regime shifts across key markets.
⚙️ Default Settings
• Assets: BTCUSD, ETHUSD, SPX, NDX, GOLD, DXY
• Timeframes: 2D, 1D, 12H, 4H, 1H, 15m
• Thresholds: ±0.1 for long/short entries
📌 Conclusion
With Timeless Command, you gain an at-a-glance “command center” for cross-market sentiment. It turns complex, multi-TF oscillator data into a simple arrow-and-table view, coloring your price bars to reinforce the prevailing bias. Whether you’re hunting trend continuations, regime changes or mean-reversion setups, this overlay gives you the high-level context you need—without digging through six different charts.
🔹 Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. No trading strategy can guarantee success in financial markets.
🔹 Strategic Advice: Always backtest, optimize, and align parameters with your trading objectives and risk tolerance before live trading.
Fear and Greed Indicator [DunesIsland]The Fear and Greed Indicator is a TradingView indicator that measures market sentiment using five metrics. It displays:
Tiny green circles below candles when the market is in "Extreme Fear" (index ≤ 25), signalling potential buys.
Tiny red circles above candles when the market is in "Greed" (index > 75), indicating potential sells.
Purpose: Helps traders spot market extremes for contrarian trading opportunities.Components (each weighted 20%):
Market Momentum: S&P 500 (SPX) vs. its 125-day SMA, normalized over 252 days.
Stock Price Strength: Net NYSE 52-week highs (INDEX:HIGN) minus lows (INDEX:LOWN), normalized.
Put/Call Ratio: 5-day SMA of Put/Call Ratio (USI:PC).
Market Volatility: VIX (VIX), inverted and normalized.
Stochastic RSI: 14-period RSI on SPX with 3-period Stochastic SMA.
Alerts:
Buy: Index ≤ 25 ("Extreme Fear - Potential Buy").
Sell: Index > 75 ("Greed - Potential Sell").
GX Credit Spread SignalThe GX Credit Spread Signal is an advanced indicator designed for traders who trade options strategies on the SPX index, especially using vertical credit spreads. It combines traditional technical analysis with volatility and option pricing concepts to provide relevant signals and projections on the chart.
Main features:
Trend analysis: Uses opening gap, position relative to VWAP and simple moving average (SMA 50) to indicate bullish or bearish bias right after the first 15-minute candle.
Safe range projection: Calculates a range based on the ATR (Average True Range) multiplied by a safety factor, suggesting potential strikes for credit spreads.
Quantitative estimates:
Calculates the estimated delta of options via the Black-Scholes formula approximation.
Estimated probability of expiring out of the money (OTM).
Chart visualizations: Displays projected ATR lines, previous day's levels (high, low, close) and an informative panel with strikes, delta, OTM probability, ATR and VWAP data.
Configurable alerts: Notifications for detected bullish or bearish bias, helping the trader to identify opportunities quickly.
This indicator is ideal for those who day trade with SPX options, facilitating decision-making by combining technical analysis, volatility and option probabilities in one place.
Intraday & Annual CAPM AlphaIntraday & Annual CAPM Alpha
This TradingView™ Pine v6 indicator computes and plots a stock’s CAPM α (alpha) on both intraday and daily/annualized timeframes, allowing you to monitor relative performance against a chosen benchmark (e.g. SPX, NDX).
⸻
Key Outputs
1. Intraday α per Bar (blue line)
• Calculates α from a rolling-window linear regression of the last N bars’ returns (default 60).
• Expressed as “extra return per bar” vs. the benchmark.
2. Intraday α Daily-Equivalent (stepped blue line)
• Scales the per-bar α to a full trading day (390 minutes), showing “if this pace held all day, outperformance (%)”.
3. Annualized α (yellow line)
• Performs the same CAPM regression on daily returns over a D-day lookback (default 252), then annualizes α by multiplying by 252.
• Indicates longer-term relative strength/weakness vs. the benchmark.
⸻
Inputs
• Benchmark Symbol: Choose any index or ETF (e.g. “SPX”, “NDX”).
• Intraday Lookback Bars: Number of bars for intraday α regression (default 60).
• Daily Lookback Days: Number of trading days for daily CAPM regression (default 252).
• Use Log Returns?: Toggle between arithmetic vs. log returns.
⸻
How to Use
• Short-Term Signals:
• Watch the blue α/bar line on 1–15 min charts. A cross from negative to positive suggests intraday outperformance; a reversal warns of weakening momentum.
• The blue daily-equivalent α gives a smoother view—e.g. > +1% signals strong intraday bias, < –1% signals underperformance.
• Long-Term Trends:
• On daily charts, focus on the yellow annualized α. A sustained positive α implies this stock has historically beaten the benchmark; sustained negative α implies the opposite.
• Combining Timeframes:
• Use intraday α for timing entries/exits within the session, and annualized α to confirm whether you want a bullish or bearish bias over days to weeks.
⸻
Install & Configure
1. Copy the Pine v6 script into the TradingView Pine Editor.
2. Set your favorite benchmark, lookback periods, and returns type.
3. Add to your chart to start visualizing real-time CAPM α signals!
Feel free to adjust the lookback windows and threshold levels to suit your trading style.
Failed 2U/2D + 50% Retrace Scanner📈 Multi-Ticker Failed 2U/2D Scanner with Daily Retrace & Market Breadth Table
This TradingView indicator is a multi-symbol price action scanner designed to catch high-probability reversal signals using The Strat’s failed 2U/2D patterns and daily 50% retrace logic, while also displaying market breadth metrics ( USI:TICK and USI:ADD ) for context.
Monitored Symbols:
SPY, SPX, QQQ, IWM, NVDA, AMD, AAPL, META, MSTR
🔍 Detection Logic
1. Failed 2U / Failed 2D Setups
Failed 2U: Price breaks above the previous candle’s high but closes back below the open → Bearish reversal
Failed 2D: Price breaks below the previous candle’s low but closes back above the open → Bullish reversal
Timeframes Monitored:
🕐 1-Hour (1H)
⏰ 4-Hour (4H)
2. Daily 50% Candle Retrace
Checks if price has retraced 50% or more of the previous day’s candle body
Highlights potential trend exhaustion or reversal confluence
3. Market Breadth Metrics (Display Only)
USI:TICK : Measures real-time NYSE up vs. down ticks
USI:ADD : Advance-Decline Line (net advancing stocks)
Not used in signal logic — just displayed in the table for overall market context
🖼️ Visual Elements
✅ Chart Markers
🔺 Red/Green Arrows for 1H Failed 2U/2D
🟨 Yellow Squares for 4H Failed 2U/2D
Visual markers are plotted directly on the relevant candles
📊 Signal Table
Lists all 9 tickers in rows
Columns for:
1H Signal
4H Signal
Daily 50% Retrace
USI:TICK Value
USI:ADD Value
Color-Coded Cells:
🔴 Red = Failed 2U
🟢 Green = Failed 2D
⚠️ Highlight if 50% Daily Retrace condition is true
🟦 Neutral-colored cells for TICK/ADD numeric display
🔔 Alerts
Hardcoded alerts fire when:
A 1H or 4H Failed 2U/2D is detected
The Daily 50% retrace condition is met
Each alert is labeled clearly by symbol and timeframe:
"META 4H Failed 2D"
"AAPL Daily 50% Retrace"
🎯 Use Case
Built for:
Reversal traders using The Strat
Swing or intraday traders watching hourly setups
Traders wanting quick visual context on market breadth without relying on it for confirmation
Monitoring multiple tickers in one clean view
This is scan 2
Add scan 1 for spx, spy, iwm, qqq, aapl
This indicator is not financial advice. Use the alerts to check out chart and when tickers trigger.
StatMetricsLibrary "StatMetrics"
A utility library for common statistical indicators and ratios used in technical analysis.
Includes Z-Score, correlation, PLF, SRI, Sharpe, Sortino, Omega ratios, and normalization tools.
zscore(src, len)
Calculates the Z-score of a series
Parameters:
src (float) : The input price or series (e.g., close)
len (simple int) : The lookback period for mean and standard deviation
Returns: Z-score: number of standard deviations the input is from the mean
corr(x, y, len)
Computes Pearson correlation coefficient between two series
Parameters:
x (float) : First series
y (float) : Second series
len (simple int) : Lookback period
Returns: Correlation coefficient between -1 and 1
plf(src, longLen, shortLen, smoothLen)
Calculates the Price Lag Factor (PLF) as the difference between long and short Z-scores, normalized and smoothed
Parameters:
src (float) : Source series (e.g., close)
longLen (simple int) : Long Z-score period
shortLen (simple int) : Short Z-score period
smoothLen (simple int) : Hull MA smoothing length
Returns: Smoothed and normalized PLF oscillator
sri(signal, len)
Computes the Statistical Reliability Index (SRI) based on trend persistence
Parameters:
signal (float) : A price or signal series (e.g., smoothed PLF)
len (simple int) : Lookback period for smoothing and deviation
Returns: Normalized trend reliability score
sharpe(src, len)
Calculates the Sharpe Ratio over a period
Parameters:
src (float) : Price series (e.g., close)
len (simple int) : Lookback period
Returns: Sharpe ratio value
sortino(src, len)
Calculates the Sortino Ratio over a period, using only downside volatility
Parameters:
src (float) : Price series
len (simple int) : Lookback period
Returns: Sortino ratio value
omega(src, len)
Calculates the Omega Ratio as the ratio of upside to downside return area
Parameters:
src (float) : Price series
len (simple int) : Lookback period
Returns: Omega ratio value
beta(asset, benchmark, len)
Calculates beta coefficient of asset vs benchmark using rolling covariance
Parameters:
asset (float) : Series of the asset (e.g., close)
benchmark (float) : Series of the benchmark (e.g., SPX close)
len (simple int) : Lookback window
Returns: Beta value (slope of linear regression)
alpha(asset, benchmark, len)
Calculates rolling alpha of an asset relative to a benchmark
Parameters:
asset (float) : Series of the asset (e.g., close)
benchmark (float) : Series of the benchmark (e.g., SPX close)
len (simple int) : Lookback window
Returns: Alpha value (excess return not explained by Beta exposure)
skew(x, len)
Computes skewness of a return series
Parameters:
x (float) : Input series (e.g., returns)
len (simple int) : Lookback period
Returns: Skewness value
kurtosis(x, len)
Computes kurtosis of a return series
Parameters:
x (float) : Input series (e.g., returns)
len (simple int) : Lookback period
Returns: Kurtosis value
cv(x, len)
Calculates Coefficient of Variation
Parameters:
x (float) : Input series (e.g., returns or prices)
len (simple int) : Lookback period
Returns: CV value
autocorr(x, len)
Calculates autocorrelation with 1-lag
Parameters:
x (float) : Series to test
len (simple int) : Lookback window
Returns: Autocorrelation at lag 1
stderr(x, len)
Calculates rolling standard error of a series
Parameters:
x (float) : Input series
len (simple int) : Lookback window
Returns: Standard error (std dev / sqrt(n))
info_ratio(asset, benchmark, len)
Calculates the Information Ratio
Parameters:
asset (float) : Asset price series
benchmark (float) : Benchmark price series
len (simple int) : Lookback period
Returns: Information ratio (alpha / tracking error)
tracking_error(asset, benchmark, len)
Measures deviation from benchmark (Tracking Error)
Parameters:
asset (float) : Asset return series
benchmark (float) : Benchmark return series
len (simple int) : Lookback window
Returns: Tracking error value
max_drawdown(x, len)
Computes maximum drawdown over a rolling window
Parameters:
x (float) : Price series
len (simple int) : Lookback window
Returns: Rolling max drawdown percentage (as a negative value)
zscore_signal(z, ob, os)
Converts Z-score into a 3-level signal
Parameters:
z (float) : Z-score series
ob (float) : Overbought threshold
os (float) : Oversold threshold
Returns: -1, 0, or 1 depending on signal state
r_squared(x, y, len)
Calculates rolling R-squared (coefficient of determination)
Parameters:
x (float) : Asset returns
y (float) : Benchmark returns
len (simple int) : Lookback window
Returns: R-squared value (0 to 1)
entropy(x, len)
Approximates Shannon entropy using log returns
Parameters:
x (float) : Price series
len (simple int) : Lookback period
Returns: Approximate entropy
zreversal(z)
Detects Z-score reversals to the mean
Parameters:
z (float) : Z-score series
Returns: +1 on upward reversal, -1 on downward
momentum_rank(x, len)
Calculates relative momentum strength
Parameters:
x (float) : Price series
len (simple int) : Lookback window
Returns: Proportion of lookback where current price is higher
normalize(x, len)
Normalizes a series to a 0–1 range over a period
Parameters:
x (float) : The input series
len (simple int) : Lookback period
Returns: Normalized value between 0 and 1
composite_score(score1, score2, score3)
Combines multiple normalized scores into a composite score
Parameters:
score1 (float)
score2 (float)
score3 (float)
Returns: Average composite score
SectorRotationRadarThe Sector Rotation Radar is a powerful visual analysis tool designed to track the relative strength and momentum of a stock compared to a benchmark index and its associated sector ETF. It helps traders and investors identify where an asset stands within the broader market cycle and spot rotation patterns across sectors and timeframes.
🔧 Key Features:
Benchmark Comparison: Measures the relative performance (strength and momentum) of the current symbol against a chosen benchmark (default: SPX), highlighting over- or underperformance.
Automatic Sector Detection: Automatically links stocks to their relevant sector ETFs (e.g., XLK, XLF, XLU), based on an extensive internal symbol map.
Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Supports simultaneous comparison across the current, next, and even third-higher timeframes (e.g., Daily → Weekly → Monthly), providing a bigger-picture perspective of trend shifts.
Tail Visualization: Displays a "trail" of price behavior over time, visualizing how the asset has moved in terms of relative strength and momentum across a user-defined period.
Quadrant-Based Layout: The chart is divided into four dynamic main zones, each representing a phase in the strength/momentum cycle:
🔄 Improving: Gaining strength and momentum
🚀 Leading: High strength and high momentum — top performers
💤 Weakening: Losing momentum while still strong
🐢 Lagging: Low strength and low momentum — underperformers
Clean Chart Visualization:
Background grid with axis labels
Dynamic tails and data points for each symbol
Option to include the associated sector ETF for context
Descriptive labels showing exact strength/momentum values per point
⚙️ Customization Options:
Benchmark Selector: Choose any symbol to compare against (e.g., SPX, Nasdaq, custom index)
Start Date Control: Option to fix a historical start point or use the current data range
Trail Length: Set the number of previous data points to display
Additional Timeframes: Enable analysis of one or two higher timeframes beyond the current
Sector ETF Display: Toggle to show or hide the related sector ETF alongside the asset
📚 Technical Architecture:
The indicator relies on external modules for:
Statistical modeling
Relative strength and momentum calculations
Chart rendering and label drawing
These components work together to compute and display a dynamic, real-time map of asset performance over time.
🧠 Use Case:
Sector Rotation Radar is ideal for traders looking to:
Spot stocks or sectors rotating into strength or weakness
Confirm alignment across multiple timeframes
Identify sector leaders and laggards
Understand how a symbol is positioned relative to the broader market and its peers
This tool is especially valuable for swing traders, sector rotation strategies, and macro-aware investors who want a visual edge in decision-making.
Base Detector Pro [AletheiaTradeLab]This custom Trading View indicator combines William O’Neal “Base” patterns with several complementary tools—David Ryan’s ANT indicator, key pivot‐based price levels, index and earnings lines, relative strength (RS) line, and moving averages—to help you pinpoint base formations and validate whether each one merits a trade.
1. Bases (William O'Neal)
A “base” is simply a period of price consolidation following a significant run-up. During this phase, a stock moves mostly sideways within a defined trading range, forming clear support and resistance lines.
Key Criteria for a Valid Base
- Prior Uptrend
Before a base begins, the stock should already have a healthy advance—typically at least a 30% gain.
- Shapes of Bases
Bases can form in several distinct geometric patterns, each signaling a different kind of consolidation and potential breakout:
Flat Base
Shape : A horizontal rectangle bounded by nearly parallel support (bottom) and resistance (top) trendlines.
Minimum Length : 5 weeks
Maximum Length : 65 weeks
Depth : < 15%
Pivot Point : Left-side high of base
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Cup Base
Shape : A smooth, rounded “U” curve.
Minimum Length : 6 weeks
Maximum Length : 65 weeks
Minimum Depth : 8%
Maximum Depth : 50%
Pivot Point : Left-side high of base
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Sauce Base
Shape : A very gradual, broad “U” curve, often taking more length than cup bases.
Minimum Length : 6 weeks
Maximum Length : 65 weeks
Minimum Depth : 8%
Maximum Depth : 50%
Pivot Point : Left-side high of base
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Cup with Handle Base
Shape : A “U”‐shaped cup followed by a smaller downward-sloping flag or channel (the handle).
Minimum Length : 6 weeks
Maximum Length : 65 weeks
Minimum Depth : 8%
Maximum Depth : 50%
Pivot Point : High of the handle
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Saucer with Handle Base
Shape : Similar to cup with handle, but cup looks like the saucer base.
Minimum Length : 6 weeks
Maximum Length : 65 weeks
Minimum Depth : 8%
Maximum Depth : 50%
Pivot Point : High of the handle
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Ascending Base
Shape : An upward-sloping channel or wedge with 3 pullbacks. Each pullback low should be higher than the previous one. It needs around 20% increase from a base to the other.
Minimum Length : 8 weeks
Maximum Length : 16 weeks
Minimum Depth : 8%
Maximum Depth : 50%
Pivot Point : Left-side high of third base
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Consolidation Base
Shape : Similar to flat base, but wider and fails to form any of the above bases.
Minimum Length : 8 weeks
Maximum Length : 16 weeks
Minimum Depth : 8%
Maximum Depth : 50%
Pivot Point : Left-side high of base
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- Base Stages
Once a stock has completed its initial 30% run-up and formed its first base, that pattern is labeled Stage 1.
After a breakout from Stage N, the stock must rally at least 20% above the Stage N pivot (the base’s resistance point). If it does, the next valid base becomes Stage N + 1.
When a breakout fails to advance at least 20% a base on base forms. This is considered an extension for the current base stage, and a letter is assigned after the stage number.
When a breakout fails and the price undercuts the low for the previous base, the base stages reset, and a rally of 30% will be needed to form a new stage 1 base.
Note that for IPO stocks, a 30% increase is not required to form the first base. As soon as it meets any of the shape of any of the available bases, it will be drawn.
- Base statistics
To help you determine how healthy is a base, some statistics are available when you hover on the small dot shown above the high-left side of each base.
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Base : The specific pattern type (Flat, Cup, Sauce, etc.).
Stage : The stage number of the base (1, 2, 3 …) and, in parentheses, how many distinct bases have formed since the very first base (including base-on-base like 1a, 1b, etc.).
Pivot : The resistance level that defines the top of the base. A close above this price often signals a valid breakout and a potential entry point.
Length : The number of bars (days on a daily chart; weeks on a weekly chart) between the start of the base and the bar immediately before breakout. (The initial bar and the breakout bar themselves are not counted.)
Depth : How far, in percentage terms, the low of the base has fallen below its left-side high.
Prior Uptrend : The percent gain from the pivot of the previous base up to the start of the current base.
Blue/Red Count : The number of up days (Blue) and down days (Red) during the base where volume was above the 50-period moving average.
Price % : The percent change from the close at the end of the base to the close at the breakout bar.
Volume % : The percent difference between the volume on the breakout bar and the 50-period average volume at the end of the base.
2. ANT Indicator (David Ryan)
The ANT indicator, developed by David Ryan, is a momentum-based signal used to identify high-potential breakout candidates during a stock’s run-up phase. It complements the base patterns by flagging moments of unusually strong price and volume activity within an uptrend, helping confirm emerging strength before or during a base formation.
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3. Key Price Levels (Pivots)
Plots recent pivot-based support and resistance levels.
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4. Index Line Overlay
Overlays a chosen index (e.g. SPX) on the top portion of the chart to compare relative performance.
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5. Relative Strength (RS) Line
Plots the price ratio of the symbol vs. an index (e.g. SPX) to identify outperformance.
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6. Moving Averages (SMA & RS-MA)
Allows up to four simple (or exponential) moving averages on price (daily/weekly) and three on the RS line.
7. Earnings Line & EPS Change
Marks earnings events on daily/weekly charts and optionally plots YoY EPS change in a lower portion of the chart. The earnings line also shows a projection to estimated earnings. To maintain alignment with the price chart, the line and YoY EPS data are limited to the most recent 28 quarters on weekly charts and 8 quarters on daily charts. For analyzing older data, you can use the replay feature.
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8. Bars
Since Trading View displays very thin bars when zoomed out, I added 2-pixel-wide vertical lines over the bars to make them easier to see.
9. Dark Theme
I added this for a quick workaround to adapt colors for dark theme. Enabling this overrides any custom settings. Uncheck to customize colors.
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RSI + Composite RSI with Regular & Hidden Divergences📌 Description (for TradingView Public Publishing):
RSI Composite Pro is a reimagined version of the classic RSI indicator, enhanced with deeper insights. This tool displays both the standard RSI of the current asset and a normalized RSI derived from a reference index (e.g., XU100, NDX, SPX), all on the same panel.
By default, the composite RSI source is automatically selected based on the exchange you're viewing (e.g., BIST → XU100, NASDAQ → NDX, NYSE → SPX). However, users can also manually input any symbol through the settings panel.
Additionally, you can apply smoothing filters such as SMA, EMA, or Bollinger Bands to both RSI lines.
The script also detects regular and hidden divergences on RSI, helping to identify potential trend reversal points.
Key Features:
Dual RSI view: asset RSI vs. composite market RSI
Auto or manual selection of composite RSI source
Supports MA smoothing and Bollinger Band overlays
Automatic detection of regular & hidden divergences
Clean and customizable visualization on a single chart
This indicator is flexible and can be tailored to your trading style, suitable for both short-term trading and trend analysis.
Breadth-Driven Swing StrategyWhat it does
This script trades the S&P 500 purely on market breadth extremes:
• Data source : INDEX:S5TH = % of S&P 500 stocks above their own 200-day SMA (range 0–100).
• Buy when breadth is washed-out.
• Sell when breadth is overheated.
It is long-only by design; shorting and ATR trailing stops have been removed to keep the logic minimal and transparent.
⸻
Signals in plain English
1. Long entry
A. A 200-EMA trough in breadth is printed and the trough value is ≤ 40 %.
or
B. A 5-EMA trough appears, its prominence passes the user threshold, and the lowest breadth reading in the last 20 bars is ≤ 20 %.
(Toggle this secondary trigger on/off with “ Enter also on 5-EMA trough ”.)
2. Exit (close long)
First 200-EMA peak whose breadth value is ≥ 70 %.
3. Risk control
A fixed stop-loss (% of entry price, default 8 %) is attached to every long trade.
⸻
Key parameters (defaults shown)
• Long EMA length 200 • Short EMA length 5
• Peak prominence 0.5 pct-pts • Trough prominence 3 pct-pts
• Peak level 70 % • Trough level 40 % • 5-EMA trough level 20 %
• Fixed stop-loss 8 %
• “Enter also on 5-EMA trough” = true (allows additional entries on extreme momentum reversals)
Feel free to tighten or relax any of these thresholds to match your risk profile or account for different market regimes.
⸻
How to use it
1. Load the script on a daily SPX / SPY chart.
(The price chart drives order execution; the breadth series is pulled internally and does not need to be on the chart.)
2. Verify the breadth feed.
INDEX:S5TH is updated after each session; your broker must provide it.
3. Back-test across several cycles.
Two decades of daily data is recommended to see how the rules behave in bear markets, range markets, and bull trends.
4. Adjust position sizing in the Properties tab.
The default is “100 % of equity”; change it if you prefer smaller allocations or pyramiding caps.
⸻
Why it can help
• Breadth signals often lead price, allowing entries before index-level momentum turns.
• Simple, rule-based exits prevent “waiting for confirmation” paralysis.
• Only one input series—easy to audit, no black-box math.
Trade-offs
• Relies on a single breadth metric; other internals (advance/decline, equal-weight returns, etc.) are ignored.
• May sit in cash during shallow pullbacks that never push breadth ≤ 40 %.
• Signals arrive at the end of the session (breadth is EoD data).
⸻
Disclaimer
This script is provided for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Markets are risky; test thoroughly and use your own judgment before trading real money.
ストラテジー概要
本スクリプトは S&P500 のマーケットブレッド（内部需給） だけを手がかりに、指数をスイングトレードします。
• ブレッドデータ : INDEX:S5TH
（S&P500 採用銘柄のうち、それぞれの 200 日移動平均線を上回っている銘柄比率。0–100 %）
• 買い : ブレッドが極端に売られたタイミング。
• 売り : ブレッドが過熱状態に達したタイミング。
余計な機能を削り、ロングオンリー & 固定ストップ のシンプル設計にしています。
⸻
シグナルの流れ
1. ロングエントリー
• 条件 A : 200-EMA がトラフを付け、その値が 40 % 以下
• 条件 B : 5-EMA がトラフを付け、
・プロミネンス条件を満たし
・直近 20 本のブレッドス最小値が 20 % 以下
• B 条件は「5-EMA トラフでもエントリー」を ON にすると有効
2. ロング決済
最初に出現した 200-EMA ピーク で、かつ値が 70 % 以上 のバーで手仕舞い。
3. リスク管理
各トレードに 固定ストップ（初期価格から 8 %）を設定。
⸻
主なパラメータ（デフォルト値）
• 長期 EMA 長さ : 200 • 短期 EMA 長さ : 5
• ピーク判定プロミネンス : 0.5 %pt • トラフ判定プロミネンス : 3 %pt
• ピーク水準 : 70 % • トラフ水準 : 40 % • 5-EMA トラフ水準 : 20 %
• 固定ストップ : 8 %
• 「5-EMA トラフでもエントリー」 : ON
相場環境やリスク許容度に合わせて閾値を調整してください。
⸻
使い方
1. 日足の SPX / SPY チャート にスクリプトを適用。
2. ブレッドデータの供給 (INDEX:S5TH) がブローカーで利用可能か確認。
3. 20 年以上の期間でバックテスト し、強気相場・弱気相場・レンジ局面での挙動を確認。
4. 資金配分 は プロパティ → 戦略実行 で調整可能（初期値は「資金の 100 %」）。
⸻
強み
• ブレッドは 価格より先行 することが多く、天底を早期に捉えやすい。
• ルールベースの出口で「もう少し待とう」と迷わずに済む。
• 入力 series は 1 本のみ、ブラックボックス要素なし。
注意点・弱み
• 単一指標に依存。他の内部需給（A/D ライン等）は考慮しない。
• 40 % を割らない浅い押し目では機会損失が起こる。
• ブレッドは終値ベースの更新。ザラ場中の変化は捉えられない。
⸻
免責事項
本スクリプトは 学習目的 で提供しています。投資助言ではありません。
実取引の前に必ず自己責任で十分な検証とリスク管理を行ってください。
Session Times + Strenght M7This Script Aims to Define Session Times, and Rank those. It can help to adjust your Strategy to Higher Volatility, if you choose to use the Session Volatility and Strenght Index from 1-10. Your timezone on Trading View should be NY. You can customize the Following in Settings: Weight of Volatility & Narrative Regarding the ranking + Transparency of the Lines. SP:SPX FX:EURUSD OANDA:EURUSD CAPITALCOM:USDJPY AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:QQQ TVC:DXY CAPITALCOM:USDJPY CME_MINI:NQ1! OANDA:XAUUSD FX:GBPUSD
Daily Volatility Range (DVR) [GIF]VIX as a Volatility Indicator:
The VIX is a measure of the market's expectation of volatility in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days, based on the prices of S&P 500 options.
The Rule of 16:
A VIX of 16 implies that the market expects the SPX to move up or down by roughly 1% on any given day.
If the VIX is 24, the expected daily move is around 1.5%, and with a VIX of 32, the expected move is around 2%.
The rationale for the rule is that the square root of the number of trading days in a year (approximately 252) is roughly 16.
Example:
If the VIX is at 20, the rule suggests that the SPX might see daily moves of around 1.25%.
Practical Application:
The rule of 16 can be used as a quick and easy way to estimate the potential daily volatility of the S&P 500 based on the VIX.
The Daily Volatility Range:
This indicator cross references the ticker on the chart with it's own volatility index (assuming it has one). Below are the indexes and stocks that have their own volatility index:
S&P 500
Nasdaq 100
Russell 2000
Dow Jones
TLT
Bitcoin
Gold
Crude Oil
Apple
Amazon
Google
IBM
Goldman Sachs
How I use the DVR:
Historic probabilities show that you will close the day within the DVR. However, there are times when those probabilities diminish greatly. One of those times is when you open in the RTH session outside of the DVR. If you open outside the DVR, you can look for the DVR to becomes support/resistance and stay extended outside the DVR. These days can often become muted as most of the most has happened before the market open. However, if we open outside the DVR and break back into range, it is highly probable that we will not break back into those extended ranges.
Indicator Options:
There are 2x and 3x DVR levels that can be plotted. During times of extreme volatility, it will become important to have these plotted.
There is the option to plot calculated pivot points. These are fib ranges that have historically been areas of consolidation or trend reversal. These are projections based on my own research and are not as important as the DVR levels themselves.
There is also an option to color the candles a specific color if the candle closes outside the DVR. This is to highlight the fact that price action has exceeded the range and caution should be taken.
If you have suggestions how to make this indicator better, please let me know in the comments and I will look into it. Thank you!
JPMorgan Collar LevelsJPMorgan Collar Levels – SPX/SPY Auto-Responsive (Quarterly Logic)
This script tracks the JPMorgan Hedged Equity Fund collar strategy, one of the most watched institutional positioning tools on SPX/SPY. The strategy rolls quarterly and often acts as a magnet or resistance/support zone for price.
Nasan Ultimate Health Index (NUHI)The Nasan Ultimate Health Index (NUHI) is a technical indicator designed to measure the relative health of a stock compared to a benchmark index or sector. By incorporating price action, volume dynamics, and volatility, NUHI provides traders with a clearer picture of a stock’s performance relative to the broader market.
The NUHI is based on the idea that a stock’s relative strength and momentum can be assessed more effectively when adjusted for volume behavior and benchmark comparison. Instead of looking at price movement alone, this indicator factors in:
The stock’s price trend (via EMA)
Volume participation (green vs. red volume) and volume ratio - SMA(volume, 21)/ SMA(volume, 252)
Volatility-adjusted performance (ATR-based scaling)
Comparison with a selected benchmark (e.g., SPX, NDX, sector ETFs)
This results in a normalized and comparative score that helps traders identify outperforming, neutral, and underperforming stocks within a specific market environment.
The NUHI is constructed using the following elements:
1️⃣ Stock Raw Score (Unadjusted Momentum)
The exponential moving average (EMA) of the hlc3 (average of high, low, close) is used to define the price trend.
The difference between the current EMA and the EMA from n bars ago shows whether the stock is gaining or losing momentum.
This difference is divided by the ATR (Average True Range) to adjust for volatility.
2️⃣ Volume Behavior Adjustment
Volume is split into green volume (up candles) and red volume (down candles).
The ratio of green to red volume determines whether buyers or sellers dominate over the selected period (n bars).
If the stock is in an uptrend, green volume is weighted higher; if in a downtrend, red volume is weighted higher.
The stock’s Volume Ratio (short-term SMA divided by long-term SMA) is adjusted based on this weight.
3️⃣ Benchmark Comparison
A similar Raw Score calculation is performed on the selected benchmark (SPX, NDX, or sector ETF).
Benchmark price movements, volume behavior, and ATR adjustments mirror the stock’s calculations.
This provides a reference point for evaluating the stock’s relative strength.
4️⃣ Normalization Process
Both the stock and benchmark raw scores are min-max normalized over the past 252 bars (1-year lookback).
This scales values between 0 and 1, ensuring fair comparisons regardless of absolute price differences.
5️⃣ NUHI Calculation
The final NUHI value is computed using a logarithmic ratio between the normalized stock score and the normalized benchmark score:
This transformation ensures a more symmetrical representation of overperformance and underperformance.
Performance Zones
Strong Outperforming (NUHI between >0.41 and 0.69)
Leading (NUHI between >0.10 and 0.41)
Transitioning Outperformance (NUHI between 0.10 and 0)
Equilibrium (NUHI 0)
Transitioning Underperformance (NUHI between -0.10 and 0)
Lagging (NUHI between < -0.1 and -0.41)
Strong Underperforming (NUHI between< -0.41 and -0.69 )
How to Use NUHI
✅ Identifying Strong Stocks
If NUHI > 0, the stock is outperforming its benchmark.
If NUHI < 0, the stock is underperforming the benchmark.
✅ Trend Confirmation
A steadily rising NUHI and raw score (colored green) suggests sustained strength bullish conditions.
A falling NUHI and raw score (colored orange) indicates weakness and possible rotation into other assets.
✅ Finding Reversals
Bullish Divergence: If NUHI is improving while the stock’s raw score is negative, it may signal a bottoming opportunity.
Bearish Signs: If NUHI is dropping despite price strength, it could hint at underlying weakness.
Why a Stock in a Downtrend Can Have NUHI > 0 (and Vice Versa )
NUHI measures performance relative to both its own history and the benchmark.
A stock’s recent movement is compared to how it usually behaves and how the benchmark is performing.
Example Scenarios:
Stock in a Downtrend but NUHI > 0
The stock may still be in a downtrend (negative raw score), but it’s performing better relative to its past downtrend behavior and better than the benchmark over the same period.
This could mean it’s showing relative strength compared to the broader market or sector.
Stock in an Uptrend but NUHI < 0
Even in a uptrend (positive raw score), the stock might be underperforming relative to its past uptrend behavior and underperforming the benchmark.
What This Means:
NUHI > 0 in a downtrend → The stock is falling less aggressively than usual and/or holding up better than the benchmark.
NUHI < 0 in an uptrend → The stock is gaining less than expected based on its history and/or lagging behind the benchmark.
NUHI helps identify relative strength or weakness .
THE Bucknut test PARI (SPY)📌 THE Bucknut Test PARI – Market Momentum & Volatility Gauge
🔹 Description
THE Bucknut Test PARI Indicator is a momentum and volatility-based market gauge designed to provide clear, actionable insights on price movement. This indicator calculates a Price Action Relative Index (PARI) score to help traders evaluate risk and potential market reversals.
It utilizes exponential moving average (EMA)-based momentum, standard deviation volatility, and SPY correlation to generate a PARI score between 1-100. The score is then categorized into risk zones, helping traders identify when conditions are favorable for entries or caution is needed.
Ideal for intraday traders, options traders (including SPX 0DTE), and swing traders looking to gauge volatility-driven market shifts.
🔥 Features & Functionality
✅ Momentum Calculation via EMA Filtering – Ensures smooth, responsive signals.
✅ Volatility-Based Adjustments – Uses standard deviation-based volatility scaling.
✅ SPY Correlation Filtering – Helps align momentum signals with market sentiment.
✅ User-Defined Timeframe Settings – Adjusts dynamically based on selected time intervals.
✅ Customizable Risk Thresholds – Allows traders to define high-risk, neutral, and low-risk zones.
✅ Non-Repainting Algorithm – Ensures reliable, static signals without revision.
⚙️ Settings & Adjustments
Setting Default Value Description
Time Frame Mode "5m-15m" Choose between 1m-3m, 5m-15m, or 1H-Daily. Affects smoothing values.
Scaling Factor 10 Adjusts PARI score sensitivity. Higher values amplify movement.
Background Color Black Custom background for the indicator panel.
Background Transparency 85 Controls indicator panel opacity (0 = solid, 100 = invisible).
High-Risk Threshold 80 Above this level, market is in overbought/high-risk conditions.
Low-Risk Threshold 20 Below this level, market is oversold/low-risk for potential reversals.
Neutral Level 50 Middle ground where price action is balanced.
📈 How to Use THE Bucknut Test PARI
🔴 Above 80 (High-Risk Zone)
Market may be overheated, strong momentum may fade or reverse soon.
Caution with calls; potential put opportunities.
🟢 Below 20 (Low-Risk Zone)
Market is oversold, potential reversal or bounce incoming.
Consider long entries or avoiding shorts.
⚪ Between 20-80 (Neutral Zone)
Market is in equilibrium; follow primary trend direction.
No extreme risk, trend-following strategies preferred.
🔍 Example Use Cases
✔ Intraday Traders → Gauge market strength on short-term charts (1m-15m).
✔ SPX 0DTE Options Traders → Time high-confidence call/put setups.
✔ Swing Traders → Identify periods of excessive momentum or exhaustion.
IronCondor 10am 30TF by RMThe IronCondor 10am 30TF indicator shows Iron Condor trades win rate over a large number of days.
The default ETFs in this indicators are "QQQ", "SPY", "RUT" , "CBTX" and "SPX", other entries have not been tested.
Iron Condor quick explanation:
- Iron Condors trades have four options, generally, are based around a Midpoint price (Current Market Price Strike) and
- Two equally distances Strikes for the SELL components (called the Body of the Iron Condor)
- Further away from the two SELLs, another Two BUYs for protection (not considered in this indicator)
- Iron Condors are used for Passive Income based on small gains most of the time.
The IronCondor 10am 30TF has its logic created based on the premises that:
- Most days the market prices stay within a range.
- As example the S&P market prices would stay within 1% on about 80% of the time
- The moving markets (bullish or bearish) occur about 20% of the time
- The biggest market price volatility generally occurs before market opens and then around the first hour or so of trade in the day.
- After the first hour or so of the market the prices would be most likely to stay within a range.
The operation is simple:
- At the Trade Star time in the day (say 10:30 Hrs.) draws a vertical yellow line, then
- Creates two blue horizontal lines for the SELL limits in the Iron Condor Body, at +/- 1% price boundary (check Ticker list below for values)
- At the Trade End time (say 16:00 Hrs.) checks that none of the SELL limits have been broken by highs or lows during the trade day
(The check is done calculating at Trade End time the high/lows 10 bars back for 30 min TF - timeframe)
- There is a label at each Trade End time with Win/Loss and Body value.
- There is one final label with overall calculated past performance in Win percentage out of 'n' trades
Defaults and User Entries:
- The User can modify the Midpoint price called 'IronCondor Midpoint STRIKE' (default is the Candle Close at the selected time)
- The User can modify the Body value called 'IronCondor Body' (default is the Ticker's selected value as per list below)
"QQQ" or "SPY" Body = 5
"RUT" or "CBTX" Body = 20
"SPX" Body = 60
* Disclaimer: This is not a Financial tool, it cannot used as any kind of advice to invest or risk moneys in any market,
Markets are volatile in nature - with little or no warning - and will drain your account if you are not careful.
Use only as an academic demonstrator => * Use at your own risk *
Integrated Market Analysis IndicatorThe Integrated Market Analysis Indicator is designed to provide traders with a macro perspective on market conditions, focusing on the S&P 500 (SPX) and market volatility (VIX), to assist in swing trading decisions. This script integrates various technical indicators and market health metrics to generate scores that help in assessing the overall market trend, potential breakout opportunities, and mean reversion scenarios. It is tailored for traders who wish to align their individual stock or index trades with broader market movements.
Functionality:
Trend Analysis: The script analyzes the trend of the S&P 500 using moving averages (5-day SMA, 10-day EMA, 20-day EMA) to determine whether the market is in an uptrend, downtrend, or neutral state. This provides a foundation for understanding the general market direction.
Volatility Assessment: It uses the VIX to gauge market volatility, which is crucial for risk management. The script calculates thresholds based on the 20-day SMA of the VIX to categorize the market volatility into low, medium, or high.
Market Breadth: The advance/decline ratio (A/D ratio) from the USI:ADVQ and USI:DECLQ indices gives an indication of market participation, helping to understand if the market movement is broad-based or led by a few stocks.
Scoring System: Three scores are calculated:
Trend Score: Evaluates the market trend in conjunction with volume, market breadth, and VIX to assign a grade from 'A' to 'D'.
Breakout Score: Assesses potential breakout conditions by looking at price action relative to dynamic support/resistance levels, short-term momentum, and volume.
Mean Reversion Score: Identifies conditions where mean reversion might occur, based on price movement, volume, and high VIX levels, indicating potential overbought or oversold conditions.
Risk Management: Position sizing recommendations are provided based on VIX levels and the calculated scores, aiming to adjust exposure according to market conditions.
How to Use the Script:
Application: Apply this indicator on any stock or index chart in TradingView. Since it uses data from SPX and VIX, the scores will reflect the macro environment regardless of the underlying chart.
Interpreting Scores:
Trend Score: Use this to gauge the overall market direction. An 'A' score might suggest a strong uptrend, making it a good time for bullish trades, while a 'D' could indicate a bearish environment.
Breakout Score: Look for 'A' scores when considering trades that aim to capitalize on breakouts. A 'B' might suggest a less certain breakout, requiring more caution.
Mean Reversion Score: A 'B' or 'A' here might be a signal to look for trades where you expect the price to revert to the mean after an extreme move.
Risk Management: Use the suggested position sizes ('Normal Size', '1/3 Size', '1/4 Size', '1/10 Size') to manage your risk exposure. Higher VIX levels or lower scores suggest reducing position sizes to mitigate risk.
Visual Cues: The script plots various SMAs, EMAs, and dynamic support/resistance levels, providing visual indicators of where the market might find support or resistance, aiding in entry and exit decisions.
How NOT to Use the Script:
Not for Intraday Trading: This indicator is designed for swing trading, focusing on daily or longer timeframes. Using it for intraday trading might not provide the intended insights due to its macro focus.
Avoid Over-reliance: While the script provides valuable insights, do not rely solely on it for trading decisions. Always consider additional analysis, news, and fundamental data.
Do Not Ignore Individual Stock Analysis: Although the script gives a macro view, individual stock analysis is crucial. The macro conditions might suggest a trend, but stock-specific factors could contradict this.
Not for High-Frequency Trading: The script's logic and the data it uses are not optimized for high-frequency trading strategies where microsecond decisions are made.
Misinterpretation of Scores: Do not misinterpret the scores as absolute signals. They are guidelines that should be part of a broader trading strategy.
Logic Explanation:
Moving Averages: The script uses different types of moving averages to smooth out price data, providing a clearer view of the trend over short to medium-term periods.
ATR for Volatility: The Average True Range (ATR) is used to calculate dynamic support and resistance levels, giving a sense of how much price movement can be expected, which helps in setting realistic expectations for price action.
VIX for Risk: By comparing current VIX levels to its 20-day SMA, the script assesses market fear or complacency, adjusting risk exposure accordingly.
Market Breadth: The A/D ratio helps to understand if the market movement is supported by a broad base of stocks or if it's narrow, which can influence the reliability of the trend.
This indicator should be used as part of a comprehensive trading strategy, providing a macro overlay to your trading decisions, ensuring you're not fighting against the broader market trends or volatility conditions. Remember, while it can guide your trading, always integrate it with other forms of analysis for a well-rounded approach.
Best Range (Day Trading)The indicator is based on a formula very similar to that of the ATR. The average volatility of the last candles (a value adjustable via inputs) is calculated, and this value is then divided (a value adjustable via inputs), providing a specific value in terms of RANGE .
Its use is very straightforward. It was primarily designed for stock indices (Nasdaq & SPX). When used on the DAILY timeframe, it provides the recommended RANGE value for day trading with structural logic.
Its goal is to offer a guiding value for setting the chart to a range-based view that is optimal and as effective as possible in identifying breakouts of specific levels , helping traders avoid false breakouts or misleading structures.
We can also observe a division of levels into quartiles (25, 50, 75, 100, 125...). This helps provide reference ranges, allowing the range to be used with rounded numbers .
For example, on Nasdaq , if the indicator set on DAILY provides a value between 200 and 250, then it is advisable to visualize the chart at 200 RANGE for a more aggressive approach or at 250 RANGE for a more conservative approach.
On SPX , which is less volatile, we use increments of 25. If the indicator gives a value between 25 and 50 , then we use 25 for an aggressive approach and 50 for a conservative approach.
Obviously, this refers to FUTURES and the tick movements of MINI contracts.
