CADJPY Set for October Crash? Institutions Bet Big on Yen
📊 Multi-Factor Analysis – CADJPY
COT Data
JPY: Net long positions are strongly increasing → Non-Commercial long +14.7K, Commercial long +12K. Institutional flows favor the Yen, confirming a bullish bias on JPY.
CAD: Heavy liquidation → Commercial longs -49K, shorts -59K, Non-Commercial longs decreasing (-2.9K). Net positioning shows bearish sentiment on CAD, with a clear prevalence of short exposure among speculators.
👉 Interpretation: Institutional flows point toward a strong JPY and weak CAD → bearish bias on CADJPY.
Seasonality
CAD: Historically weak in October (negative averages in 20Y and 15Y, worsening in 5Y and 2Y).
JPY: Historically strong in October, especially on short-term frames (5Y and 2Y very bullish).
👉 Interpretation: Seasonality supports a bearish scenario on CADJPY during October.
Retail Sentiment
90% Long vs 10% Short on CADJPY.
👉 Extreme retail long positioning = contrarian bearish signal → potential for further downside pressure.
Technical Analysis
CADJPY broke below the descending trendline.
Currently trading inside the weekly demand zone (105–106), acting as short-term support.
RSI oversold → likely technical bounce toward 106.8–107.2 (supply + trendline) before continuation lower.
Primary structure remains bearish, with medium-term targets at 104.80–105.00.
COT Data
JPY: Net long positions are strongly increasing → Non-Commercial long +14.7K, Commercial long +12K. Institutional flows favor the Yen, confirming a bullish bias on JPY.
CAD: Heavy liquidation → Commercial longs -49K, shorts -59K, Non-Commercial longs decreasing (-2.9K). Net positioning shows bearish sentiment on CAD, with a clear prevalence of short exposure among speculators.
👉 Interpretation: Institutional flows point toward a strong JPY and weak CAD → bearish bias on CADJPY.
Seasonality
CAD: Historically weak in October (negative averages in 20Y and 15Y, worsening in 5Y and 2Y).
JPY: Historically strong in October, especially on short-term frames (5Y and 2Y very bullish).
👉 Interpretation: Seasonality supports a bearish scenario on CADJPY during October.
Retail Sentiment
90% Long vs 10% Short on CADJPY.
👉 Extreme retail long positioning = contrarian bearish signal → potential for further downside pressure.
Technical Analysis
CADJPY broke below the descending trendline.
Currently trading inside the weekly demand zone (105–106), acting as short-term support.
RSI oversold → likely technical bounce toward 106.8–107.2 (supply + trendline) before continuation lower.
Primary structure remains bearish, with medium-term targets at 104.80–105.00.
Trade attivo
The pullback is started. Let's see how it will be the price reaction
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
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📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.